View Single Post
  #35  
Old 11-19-2013, 01:15 PM
robfla robfla is offline
Calder Race Course
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Strategically between Calder and Gulfstream
Posts: 1,892
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
I don't see why you'd be a "fool" to make a bet into a pool with the same takeout as any other Churchill Downs win pool bet. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty about a particular horse making it to the race, and to some degree, that is reflected in the odds. If you believe every listed horse is an underlay because of the uncertainty, then that makes the "All Others" a great bet.

Also, I'd make a substantial bet that more than your predicted "1 or 2 horses" from the pool make it to the Derby. In the past 10 years the fewest number of horses from Pool 1 to make it into the starting gate was 5. Next fewest was 7. In each of the last 2 years 12 horses from Pool 1 made it into the starting gate. It's certainly possible that listing the horses 2 months earlier will result in 2 or fewer entries, but the odds are small, IMO.

--Dunbar
sure if you think 2:5 or 3:5 payable in 7 months is a good deal...No Thanks for me


I don't make "internet bets" but we can look back in 7 months and see
Reply With Quote