11/17: Churchill Downs ($252k P5 C/O)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$252k P5 C/O starts here..

Kinzie Queen moves inside after good wide trip try at similar level. Is supposed to win this. McPeek sends firster Tarragon SCR'D (Volatile 19% with FTS) who was a $135k yearling and feels spotted. Judy's Flyer and Blushing Kam are first off claims for Garcia & Hartman..

Most Likely: #2 Kinzie Queen 3-1
Next Best: #1 Cat Pays the Toll 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Blushing Kam 4-1
Super Add: #5 Judy's Flyer 7-2


6th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Analog Jones whistled when stretched to 2 turns, is the one to beat and isn't the ML favorite. Iron Sharpens Iron is a crazy 15-1 and was as fast on figs as Magnitude and Uncle Jim..

Most Likely: #4 Analog Jones 2-1
Best Value: #5 Iron Sharpens Iron 15-1
Next Best: #7 Magnitude 3-1
Exotics Use: #6 Uncle Jim 8-5


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tickin Time Blonde moved forward going turf to dirt for Oliver and is the one to beat (and perhaps the one to catch), but firsters from Cox/Juddmonte (Catana) & Walsh/Godolphin (MagicalDay) command respect. Would guess the Amoss/Politi Liam's Map (Modo) can run, but may want longer (LDK mare)..

Most Likely: #3 Catana 2-1
Best Value: #1 Magical Day 6-1 ~ NOTE: Gaffalione off mounts today from yesterday's spill..
Next Best: #9 Tickin Time Blonde 5-2
Exotics Use: #10 Modo 12-1


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Kavod the one to beat and many will be inclined to single, but note Gold Luck gets Lasix back after stakes try and is absolutely on a par. Needs a little pace to chase (:44+), but Morales knows when to move with him if the half comes up north of :45..

Best Value: #5 Gold Luck 4-1
Next Best: #6 Kavod 9-5
Exotics Use: #3 Swirvin 5-1
Super Add: #7 Osbourne 6-1


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Artwell 10-1
Next Best: #3 River Ridge 4-1
Exotics Use: #6 Tropandhagen 8-1
Super Add: #8 Midnight Stormy 8-1


P5 Grid:

5: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-6-10 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAAAC): 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (4-8 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

6: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-6-10 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAAC): 2x2x2x2 = 16 x .50 = $8 (4-8 in 9th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve