10/23-25: C/O-palooza ~ KEE $301k P5; AQU $124k P6; SA $153k P6

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

$301k P5 C/O starts here..

Tricky start to sequence with class droppers and in-and-outers..

Most Likely: #5 Strava 4-1
Best Value: #7 Huge Bigly 12-1
Next Best: #9 Underdressed 3-1
Exotics Use: #10 C F V Bullet 8-1


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Quartet of candidates (2-4-6-10) have established form that win this and another five (3-7-8-9-12) are within hailing distance. Pretty Pertinent (5) is a 20-1 first time turf filly out of the nice multiple G1 placed Pretty Prolific, but there doesn't seem to be any indication that the lawn will work for her..

Most Likely: #10 Birdwatching 6-5
Next Best: #6 One Front War 6-1
Best Value: #2 High Shot 15-1
Exotics Use: #4 My Brazilian Girl 4-1


6th: OC/N2X, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Everland 8-1
Next Best: #6 Landed 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Intricate 3-1
Super Add: #3 Neon Icon 5-1


7th: ALW/Cond., 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Stakes quality turf sprint where Ward (Arrest Me Red) and former Ward (Outadore) figure prominently, but note that Arrest hasn't been too successful over this course..

Best Value: #6 Mischievous Rogue 8-1
Next Best: #7 Outadore 9-2
Exotics Use: #1 Arrest Me Red 7-2
Super Add: #10 Mo Stash 4-1


8th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Hitchcock 6-1
Next Best: #4 Touchy 8-5
Exotics Use: #9 Can Do Andrew 15-1
Super Add: #10 Original Sin 7-2


$200 Budget P5 Grid (w/ All Used in 4th):

4: 5-7-9-10 (A), 2-3 (B), 1-4-5-8 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x4x3 = 288 x .50 = $144
All A's: 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
Backup (CAAAA): 4x2x2x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48 (1-4-5-8 in 4th)


$100 & Under Budget P5 Grid:

4: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-3-10 (C)
5: 6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (CAAAA): 3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-3-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

5: 6-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

BELMONT AT AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$124k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #2 Silent Melody 5-1
Next Best: #3 Sweet Anniversary 7-5
Exotics Use: #7 Nolita 4-1
Super Add: #1a (POE) Chasing Daylight 3-1


4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Miss Bourbon 7-2
Next Best: #8 Magic Eight Ball 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Just Heart 9-2
Super Add: #3 Turriga 6-1


5th: MCLM/$75k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Its Satisfactual 10-1
Next Best: #5 Stamp of Approval 9-5
Exotics Use: #2 Sunday Tiff 10-1
Super Add: #3 Positive Carry 5-2


P4 Grid:

2: - (A), - (B), - (C)
3: - (A), - (B), - (C)
4: - (A), - (B), - (C)
5: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


6th: MDN/OC-$, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Western Wolf 7-2
Best Value: #8 Skyloft 6-1
Next Best: #7 Chris's Revenge 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 America's Honor 3-1


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Classify 3-1
Next Best: #3 El Grande O 8-5
Exotics Use: #1 Forrest City 7-2
Super Add: #8 For Some Reason 6-1


8th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 9f-Outer

Always hard to be totally objective when you have a horse in a race, but our home bred Landauer ran a career best stretching out on the grass last month and found trouble mid-stretch when rallying. Gets Lezcano and added ground and starts out as the 5th choice (6-1)..

Most Likely: #5 Landauer 6-1
Best Value: #2 Rohan 15-1
Next Best: #7 Make Your Moment 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Cattani 3-1


P6 Grid:

3: - (A), - (B), - (C)
4: - (A), - (B), - (C)
5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


P6 P5 Grid:

4: - (A), - (B), - (C)
5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


P4 Grid:

5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$153k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


5th: CA-MSW, 2yo, 6f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


6th: MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


8th: CA-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


9th: MCLM/$50k, F&M/3yo-5yo, 6f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely:
Next Best Value:
Next Best Value:
Exotics Use:
Super Add:


P6 Grid:

4: - (A), - (B), - (C)
5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


P6 P5 Grid:

5: - (A), - (B), - (C)
6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


P4 Grid:

6: - (A), - (B), - (C)
7: - (A), - (B), - (C)
8: - (A), - (B), - (C)
9: - (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B):
All A's:
Backup ():


Let's get lucky!
Steve