Fla Derby recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

An absolutely screaming fast pace helped result in one of the slowest Florida Derby's ever. The figure isn't out yet ... but even my projected 92 for Dialed In might be a tad generous.

The race was all but lost by everyone not named Dialed In going into the first turn...



Flashpoint ran a huge pace figure sprinting in the Hutcheson - they simply ran much too fast for him early to clear this field.

Even though Dialed In was a LONG way last early - he was running fast enough to where he would have been leading after just a half mile - had he ran in the Grade 3 for older males one race prior.



Top 4 finishers in older male Graded Stake 30 minutes earlier:





Shackleford would have owned a 12 length early lead after just a half mile in that older Graded Stakes race. Soldat would have owned an 8.5 length early lead in that race .. and wouldn't have had dirt kicked back in his face while racing in an uncomfortable tactical position.

Even Stay Thirsty and Bowman's Causeway would have had 7 lengths early.

Everyone simply went way too fast - even Dialed In went a little too fast for his own good - but considering the pace and his trip - he should have been between maybe 1/5 or 2/5 odds to win that race at the 5/8 pole.. and he almost failed.

Much like with Ice Box last year - Dialed In should get another similar setup in the Derby.

I had him rated the #1 most likely horse to run either 3rd or 4th in the Ky Derby coming into this week ... and to me - his performance in the Fla Derby looked a lot like a horse I'd love to have in the 3rd and 4th slot on my Derby tickets ... and a horse who I plan on taking an extreme negative position against after the Derby.


My Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (29.75%)
Dialed In (12.00%)
The Factor (10.50%)
Premier Pegasus (9.25%)
Silver Medallion (4.50%)
To Honor And Serve (3.5%)
Soldat (3%)
Mucho Macho Man (3%)
Jaycito (3.25%)
Elite Alex (2.5%)
Santiva (2.0%)
Mr. Commons (1.75%)
Sheckleford (1.75%)
Comma to the Top (1.5%)
Archarcharch (1.50%)
Anthony's Cross (1%)
Sway Away (1%)
Nehro (0.75%)
Astrology (0.84%)
Decisive Moment (0.50%)
Toby's Corner (0.50%)
Pants on Fire (0.40%)
Animal Kingdom (0.40%)
Bretheren (0.33%)
Stay Thirsty (0.33%)
Watch Me Go (0.25%)
Twice the Appeal (0.20%)

The Rest: 3.75%