SAT - Belmont $1 Million PK4

Bogey · #1 06-08-2007, 11:10 PM

Belmont Park - Start of $1 Million Guranteed PK4

R8 - G2 Woody Stevens

#3 Stormello - Should love the distance.
#2 Deadly Dealer - Same as Stormello.
#8 Street Magician - Gutsy win in G3 Hirsch Jacobs.
#7 Out of Gwedda - 2 for 2 @ Big Sandy and in new barn.

The Play - $1 Tri Bx - 2 3 7 8 = $24

R9 - G1 Acorn

#1 Dream Rush - The one to beat.
#6 Boca Grande - Should get nice trip.
#2 Princess Janie - Steps up in class.
#3 Christmas Kid - Lone G1 winner.

R10 - G1 Manhattan

#8 Cosmonaut - He's ready for a G1.
#7 Better Talk Now - Should improve off last.
#5 Steppenwolfer - Looked sharp on the lawn.
#2 English Channel - Will make his presense felt.

The Play - $1 Tri Key 8 over 2 5 6 7 = $24

R11 - G1 Belmont

#3 Curlin - Could regress and still win.
#2 Tiago - Fits well here.
#7 Rags to Riches - Wildcard makes things interesting.
#6 Hard Spun - Last workout a bit on the slow side.

The Play - $1 Super Key 3 over 1 2 6 7 = $24

The Play - $1 PK4 - 2 3 7 with 1 6 with 2 5 6 7 8 with 2 3 = $60

Good Racing Luck

mclem10011 · #2 06-08-2007, 11:33 PM

Curlin could regress and still win, totally agree with you there.
Not sold on Stormello, Deadly Dealer though i think is gonna run a big one.

pick4 · #3 06-08-2007, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem10011

Curlin could regress and still win, totally agree with you there.
Not sold on Stormello, Deadly Dealer though i think is gonna run a big one.

Do you think the distance races dulled the speed of Stormello, & Teufelsberg? They were being trained to run long and both ran in the Derby. I think Deadly Dealer will be a pace factor but I'm not sold on him. I've talked to some handicappers whose opinions I respect a great deal and they think Deadly Dealer is one of the ones. Once again a triple digit BSF has people going ga ga over him. 44 speed was the in thing that day and the field he ran against was suspect.

How do you think the pace works out here? Will Deadly Dealer run and gun and who goes with him? I'm having a hard time answering that question. I don't think he'll be alone on the lead. I question the big fig he was assigned on March 3rd plus his ability to run fast and sustain that for 7 furlongs against better horses.

I think Street Magician is a top quality colt. He's shown he has good speed and can sit off a horse if need be. He should have won his last race by at least 3 lengths if Bejarano elected to pass the tiring front runner on the outside. By moving inside it looked like he was sandwiched bit until Southwestern Heat drifted back off of him and towards the middle of the track. Add 3 lengths and his Beyer is at or very close to 100 which would depress his odds greatly.

hockey2315 · #4 06-09-2007, 12:09 AM

Two words: Most Distinguished

golfer · #5 06-09-2007, 04:37 AM

Since I gave out a winner posting under Gus' picks last week, I'll try again here:

Race 1: #2 Lord Snowdon is the fastest horse in the race. He has run 3 races faster than all others, including his last at Delaware. The trainer switch from T Dutrow could be a problem, however. #3 Oh My Stars, very consistent, breaking from the rail, could hit the board.

Race 2: #9 Prom Party, ML favorite for Pletcher add blinkers, should be ready to roll (It seems Pletcher either Fires big on these type days, or doesn't, no in between, so this may be a telling race). #8 Risky Agenda has some relatively fast figs, should be dangerous. #5 Wild Hoots, very expensive horse switches from Mott to McLaughlin, first try on the turf.

Race 3: taking a stand against Hesanoldsalt, ran big at Pimlico, may react today. #1 AP Arrow comes in fresh, gets the rail. #3 Papi Chullo makes 2nd start for Contessa, 1st was lifetime best. Dangerous, although had a perfect rail skimming trip in last.

Race 4: Very competitive sprint where just about anyone can win. Trying to beat Smoky Chimney, Andy likes #11 Minority Report, but this one would have to jump up off the layoff to win. #3 Berry Bound gets the tepid call. Longshots #2 Quick and Easy, and the #1 Entry, could catch a piece at fair prices (and possibly win).

Race 5 Another very competitive race, but I think #8 Criminologist is set up for a big one, hopefully get somewhere near ML 8-1. #7 Meribel comes in 3rd off layoff, 1st 2 have been very good. #6 Cala Lilly broke poorly in last, can rebound.

Race 6: #5 Bardonaro looks very tough in here, although I've heard some negatives about him. I do think #7 Joey P is set to run big today.

Race 7: Ultra competitive 5 horse field, none of which would be a surprise. ML favorite Wait a While's figs don't stand out despite all her wins, Tepid call goes to longest ML horse, #3 Miss Shop, whose as good as any here on her best.

Race 8: This is where I'm either a genius, or a money wasting dope. #10 Hobbitontherocks, although I wish they had chosen a softer spot, fits with these, expect at least 20-1. #5 Sports Town's last makes him the fastest coming in. Yes #2 Deadly Dealer is very dangerous for Pletcher (how has he done to this point?). #6 Most Distinguished is solid, but not overly distinguished.

Race 9: #1 Dream Rush on top. #6 Boca Grande for 2nd. Nuff Said!

Race 10: I agree with Gus here, #8 Cosmonaut should be ready to get his grade 1. #1 Minister's Joy is very consistent, albeit a bit slower than the others at their best. #5 Steppenwolfer may hit the board at a price. #3 Sky Conqueror ran huge last out, may "bounce" off that. #9 Kiss the Kid, has fast figs this year, but in my opinion, is distance limited.

Race 11: The Belmont Stakes.. as I said in previous post, if Curlin doesn't regress today, he never will. #6 Hard Spun gets a less than confident Nod, using #1 Imawildandcrazyguy, #2 Tiago,#7 Rags to Riches (and #3 Curlin, I'm not that dopey) underneath.

Also, race 8 at Arlington, the 2 horses that I liked last week against Dreaming of Anna who were scratched are running today in the 8th. Not much value, as they are the ML favorites, but might be worth an exacta box, #3 Secret Kin, and #4 Trainee.

Good luck to all.

tiznowthegreat · #6 06-09-2007, 07:53 AM

Is there a particlular reason that you guys like Cosmo to get a grade 1? I don't think he's ever even hit the board in a grade 1. I do kind of like him, especially the improvement since switching to Prado, but I'm struggling to put him on top in my P4's because of his lack of success at this level.

justindew · #7 06-09-2007, 08:00 AM

I see many of you are picking Deadly Dealer to win. I have left him off my Pick 6 ticket. Can we start a quick, short discussion about his chances?

golfer · #8 06-09-2007, 08:03 AM

Speaking for myself, of course, about Cosmonaut, his TG figs last year, while losing, were very competitive. He is coming in 3rd off the layoff today, and I think the top horses may be vulnerable (ei English Channel, Sky Conqueror, Better Talk Now) He's next on the list. I do agree, he's been a bit of a money burner, but today's a new day, hopefully.

tiznowthegreat · #9 06-09-2007, 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Speaking for myself, of course, about Cosmonaut, his TG figs last year, while losing, were very competitive. He is coming in 3rd off the layoff today, and I think the top horses may be vulnerable (ei English Channel, Sky Conqueror, Better Talk Now) He's next on the list. I do agree, he's been a bit of a money burner, but today's a new day, hopefully.

Yeah I'm struggling with him. I do like him, and think he has improved much this year (last race could've been huge for him without the trouble) but I just am bothered by him not NEVER hitting the board in a grade 1, let alone win one. Does anybody think the BTN maybe has just lost a step yet at the age of 8 (not every horse can pull a Tin Man

tiznowthegreat · #10 06-09-2007, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I see many of you are picking Deadly Dealer to win. I have left him off my Pick 6 ticket. Can we start a quick, short discussion about his chances?

I just think that it is the simple fact that he is probably the speed of the speed and he ran a HUGE one at a slightly longer distance 2 races back and a lot of people figure the cut back will benefit him in a huge way. I will personally include him, but I plan on going very deep in this race, maybe even 8 deep as I think this and the 5th race are the most wide open of the day.

hockey2315 · #11 06-09-2007, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

2 more words: no chance

Guess you were right. . .

philcski · #12 06-09-2007, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Guess you were right. . .

I bet him, midstretch I thought he was a winner. Has a severe case of seconditis.

hockey2315 · #13 06-09-2007, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I bet him, midstretch I thought he was a winner. Has a severe case of seconditis.

That was one of the worse beats of my life. . . I had a nice sized pk3 going into that race with Deadly Dealer, Stormello, Most Distinguished and Street Magician and a win bet on Most Distinguished. . . I kept saying before the race that the only horse that could beat me was Teuf. . . I was practically counting my money at the top of the stretch and then my worst nightmare came to fruition. . . It was just one of those days where you're SO close to big scores all day but have nothing to show for it. . .