Clemens

[philcski]

I may hate the pitcher of the same name but I love this horse in the 1st. Last race at Monmouth he dueled but had the outside spot, which is death at Mth. Has the pace advantage over these, and on a drying out Saratoga track that is superior. Another great angle... he is only one of two in this field to not have lost at this level, and the other one (Charging Hero) is scratched.

I think anything over 2-1 is a gift.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by philcski

I may hate the pitcher of the same name but I love this horse in the 1st. Last race at Monmouth he dueled but had the outside spot, which is death at Mth. Has the pace advantage over these, and on a drying out Saratoga track that is superior. Another great angle... he is only one of two in this field to not have lost at this level, and the other one (Charging Hero) is scratched.

I think anything over 2-1 is a gift.

My only question Phil was whether he hurt himself in that last race the way he finished that last race. His numbers clearly outclass the rest of this field sprinting. The only question I have is what the 6 Ship's Piano is going to do on the cutback with a trainer who has success at the Spa occasionally.

[geeker2]

I took a hard look at him..

I've got the 3,4 and 7 out pacing him at 1st & 2 call ...it looks like he can close from just off the pace if necessary - but they may all have to hold off the 2.

Other subjective observation is that the Mth shippers never seem to win at SAR - at least whenever I bet them

Good luck - I am going to save my youbet ammo till some later races..hope he romps for you!

[geeker2]

Nice call Phill!

[XIIPointStables]

Nice call Phil. Should have played him with the 7.

[zippyneedsawin]

Good call, Phil!

[wac]

Anyone like sealteam in next??? Trippi normally does ok with early horses trainer not to bad with 1st start i figure at 14-1 why not?? thoughts

[jms62]

Originally Posted by wac

Anyone like sealteam in next??? Trippi normally does ok with early horses trainer not to bad with 1st start i figure at 14-1 why not?? thoughts

Sealteam is my play here to win and a backup 1,2,6/7 Ex

[hockey2315]

I was going to bet the 8 but I'm staying away from this race with all the buzz surrounding Pious David.

[odbaxter]

Originally Posted by philcski

I may hate the pitcher of the same name but I love this horse in the 1st. Last race at Monmouth he dueled but had the outside spot, which is death at Mth. Has the pace advantage over these, and on a drying out Saratoga track that is superior. Another great angle... he is only one of two in this field to not have lost at this level, and the other one (Charging Hero) is scratched.

I think anything over 2-1 is a gift.

Thanks Phil,

Nice call.

[philcski]

This one runs back on a week's rest and is 4-1 ML against only a slightly more difficult group. Pat Reynolds doesn't do this very often but when he does, he's deadly. Note this one's best effort came on an 8 day turnaround to break his maiden back in April... There's a lot of pace in here, so he'll have to close from farther back than before, but he's done that before and I think he's a good play again.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

This one runs back on a week's rest and is 4-1 ML against only a slightly more difficult group. Pat Reynolds doesn't do this very often but when he does, he's deadly. Note this one's best effort came on an 8 day turnaround to break his maiden back in April... There's a lot of pace in here, so he'll have to close from farther back than before, but he's done that before and I think he's a good play again.

Thoro-Graph says Reynolds is 2-for-44 with horses who made their last start within ten days.

Good call on him the first time. I don't like him in here, but I didn't like him last Friday either, so I could be wrong again.

[alphanumeric1]

Originally Posted by philcski

This one runs back on a week's rest and is 4-1 ML against only a slightly more difficult group. Pat Reynolds doesn't do this very often but when he does, he's deadly. Note this one's best effort came on an 8 day turnaround to break his maiden back in April... There's a lot of pace in here, so he'll have to close from farther back than before, but he's done that before and I think he's a good play again.

I think Clemens is the first Spa Repeater! I love this setup, up in class, stalks a very fast pace and a winning race over the track. Single him in multi-wagers. Good luck to all.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Thoro-Graph says Reynolds is 2-for-44 with horses who made their last start within ten days.

Good call on him the first time. I don't like him in here, but I didn't like him last Friday either, so I could be wrong again.

Over the last three years at Saratoga, he has 15% winners first start of the meet and 6% winners second start of the meet....

0 for 6 with horses that won their last start.

[philcski]

Trainer statistics such as these can be spun a lot of ways. He's also 8-14 for a $3.83 ROI with claiming repeaters according to BRIS (I believe that's from the start of 2007.) I think they're all irrelevant in this situation and I should have omitted my opinion of him on short rest.

Just my opinion, but trainer statistics that matter to me: record with firsters/second timers, layoff types, equipment changes, and stretchouts/cutbacks. otherwise I think you end up clouding your judgement of the actual HORSE who is doing the running.

[Bigsmc]

Statistics aside, there isn't much to beat in this race, so the horse does have a huge shot at a short price (I don't see the odds being anywhere near the 4-1 M/L for this one).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Statistics aside, there isn't much to beat in this race, so the horse does have a huge shot at a short price (I don't see the odds being anywhere near the 4-1 M/L for this one).

I'm guessing 3/1. Holla Bend, All Expenses Paid, and Secret Stocks should all take some money.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

7 gold shamrock is going to make it tough...i dont really like em here 'clemons'

[walocke1@msn.com]

Scratched

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Thanks..