Belmont angle

[JJP]

I don't have numbers on this but I've heard in the past that a workout over the Belmont track has been an extremely important angle historically. While quite a few Belmont Stakes entrants have at least one previous work over the track, including Summer Bird, it should be pointed out that one horse who didn't have the work over the track was Mine that Bird, the 6-5 chalk.

Interesting in that Ice got Summer Bird to Belmont early enough to have 2 drills over the track and he remarked early on that the horse initially didn't seem to care for the track but as time went on he said SB handled it better.

The 4 entrants who didn't have a workout over the Belmont strip:
Mr. Hot Stuff, Luv Guv, Mine that Bird and Flying Private.

While no one angle should be bet blindly, this one should be kept in mind, if no other reason than to find a reason to toss out an overbet favorite.

[DaTruth]

Da'Tara didn't have a work over the track last year, but Big Brown did.

[the_fat_man]

There's no way to prepare a horse to withstand a premature move in a race. No horse wins with that type of move.

[NTamm1215]

There were plenty of reasons why Summer Bird won today and I'd have to imagine having a workout at the track was far down the list.

NT

[Stickhorse]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

There's no way to prepare a horse to withstand a premature move in a race. No horse wins with that type of move.

Lots of premature move comments after the race.

Seems like a jock does not have much choice when you've done all you can to keep a horse relaxed yet he is rank and wants to run.

Mine that Bird was the third best horse on the track Saturday.

But if the Mine That Bird had kept it going and won well Calvin would be a hero!

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Stickhorse

Lots of premature move comments after the race.

Seems like a jock does not have much choice when you've done all you can to keep a horse relaxed yet he is rank and wants to run.

Mine that Bird was the third best horse on the track Saturday.

But if the Mine That Bird had kept it going and won well Calvin would be a hero!

I agree with you there. During the running of the race around the far turn who really believed he would have lost that race?

Ron Turcotte made a premature move with Secratariat but no one ever questioned him.



Monday morning quarterbacking.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I agree with you there. During the running of the race around the far turn who really believed he would have lost that race?

Ron Turcotte made a premature move with Secratariat but no one ever questioned him.



Monday morning quarterbacking.

I'm sure very many believed he would lose the race. It's a long race. Smarty Jones and Real Quiet weren't that long ago were they?

Secretariat and Mine That Bird are not the same species. Without Monday morning quarterbacking, these boards would not be in existence. What else is there to question in this race?? Everyone harped about the reason for Mine That Bird's huge improvement in the TC races was saving his move. The excuse in the Sunland races for the horse was Lambert rushed him way too early. Woolley has gone on and on and on on the fact that the horse runs 3 furlongs. It seemed pretty obvious the same thing happened yesterday. It seems a pretty obvious thing to discuss.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I'm sure very many believed he would lose the race. It's a long race. Smarty Jones and Real Quiet weren't that long ago were they?

Secretariat and Mine That Bird are not the same species. Without Monday morning quarterbacking, these boards would not be in existence. What else is there to question in this race?? Everyone harped about the reason for Mine That Bird's huge improvement in the TC races was saving his move. The excuse in the Sunland races for the horse was Lambert rushed him way too early. Woolley has gone on and on and on on the fact that the horse runs 3 furlongs. It seemed pretty obvious the same thing happened yesterday. It seems a pretty obvious thing to discuss.

I agree there should be discussion.I believe MTB ran a race that many thought he couldn't, coming from behind in a race that historically has favored horses on or near the pace. He made what looked like a winning move around the far turn and couldn't sustain it.He is not Secretariat. That is my point. I don't believe Borel thought he was going to lose that race when he began his move and he had the horse to put away the field when he began that run.He could have waited patiently and let the frontrunners get the jump on him. He chose not to and because he faded in the stretch it is oh so easy to question his tactics.Maybe MTB should have moved sooner in the Preakness.I never heard anyone question Smith's tactics in that race.With good reason.

The horse wasn't good enough to win. It was Summer Bird's day.

[Travis Stone]

Races, works over the track... overrated in my opinion. As Barclay Tagg said, either a horse is going to like it, or he isn't. He was shipping someone once when he said this.

Why find out if a horse is going to like a track in the morning? Find out when the $ is on the line.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I agree there should be discussion.I believe MTB ran a race that many thought he couldn't, coming from behind in a race that historically has favored horses on or near the pace. He made what looked like a winning move around the far turn and couldn't sustain it.He is not Secretariat. That is my point. I don't believe Borel thought he was going to lose that race when he began his move and he had the horse to put away the field when he began that run.He could have waited patiently and let the frontrunners get the jump on him. He chose not to and because he faded in the stretch it is oh so easy to question his tactics.Maybe MTB should have moved sooner in the Preakness.I never heard anyone question Smith's tactics in that race.With good reason.

The horse wasn't good enough to win. It was Summer Bird's day.

When you've got a one run closer, pace and jockey discussions will always come more into play. MTB did not fade late in the Derby or Preakness. He did in the Sunland Derby and Belmont Stakes. Why? I think he lost the Preakness simply because he was running against a much better horse than he faced in the Derby...no other reason. The ride was text book for the most part. Deep closers are 9 times out of 10 always going to have to go wide at some point. I thought Bailey's description stating MTB wins the Preakness if Borel's on him was ludicrous. Yesterday could very well have been a case of the horse being amped up much more than usual as Woolley stated and he didn't handle the detention barn and perhaps Borel is correct that if he waited any longer, the horse would have started to fight him. I honestly don't know. All I know is that looking at the numbers and fractions run in the race, his internal fractions fried him. Whether that was jockey aided, I honestly don't know. I am taking the position that it was.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

When you've got a one run closer, pace and jockey discussions will always come more into play. MTB did not fade late in the Derby or Preakness. He did in the Sunland Derby and Belmont Stakes. Why? I think he lost the Preakness simply because he was running against a much better horse than he faced in the Derby...no other reason. The ride was text book for the most part. Deep closers are 9 times out of 10 always going to have to go wide at some point. I thought Bailey's description stating MTB wins the Preakness if Borel's on him was ludicrous. Yesterday could very well have been a case of the horse being amped up much more than usual as Woolley stated and he didn't handle the detention barn and perhaps Borel is correct that if he waited any longer, the horse would have started to fight him. I honestly don't know. All I know is that looking at the numbers and fractions run in the race, his internal fractions fried him. Whether that was jockey aided, I honestly don't know. I am taking the position that it was.

It all comes down to expectation. Let's take the result and then go back and explain how the result could have been different only if this or that had happened.

Was Borel's ride poor? If it was poor then it was a poor ride even if MTB wins.Same with his ride on Rachel. Ifher diminishing lead in the Preakness turned out to be a defeat there would have been second guessing as to why he didn't let Big Drama go on then make his move at the perfect time.

So that brings me to your opinion that he simply lost to a better horse in the Preakness which I happen to agree with.Summer Bird was the best horse in the Belmont yet the thought that he was the best horse isn't the talk today as much as the fact that Borel moved too soon with MTB.

After the Derby the majority opinion was that it was a fluky win . Yesterday he got a questionable ride.If Summer Bird wins the Travers we can go back to yesterday and realize that it wasn't so much that Borel moved too early but that he was beaten by a horse coming into his own.


Mine That Bird is no Secretariat but he just needed to be slightly better than he is to have had the stamina after making the run he made around the turn.

I'll concede that the internal fractions may have contributed but I will never believe he lost the race solely because of it.

[Stickhorse]

[quote=horseofcourse]........... I thought Bailey's description stating MTB wins the Preakness if Borel's on him was ludicrous. QUOTE]

Agree totally.

I thought Bailey would know better but the analyst gets paid to say, say, say and often times it can be a bunch of horsecrap.

Yup they get paid to Monday Morning QB.