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#1
06-15-2011, 07:06 AM
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6/15: Belmont Park ($1.1MM C/O)
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Super cancelled.. Most Likely: #5 Chairman Tucker 5-2 5th Best Value: #1 Wise Stop 4-1 WON ($6.70) Next Best: #4 Masala 2-1 2nd $1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $11.40 2nd: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD) A lot of speed signed on here, and the 8-5 fave seems versatile.. Super cancelled.. Most Likely: #4 Dawly 8-5 2nd Best Value: #3 Tatao's Widcat 5-1 WON ($15.20) Next Best: #6 Ultimo Principle 4-1 5th $1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $15.30 3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Arena Elvira 8-5 3rd Best Value: #2 Ask the Moon 8-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Ailalea 5-2 5th 4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super) $1.1MM P6 Carryover starts here.. Top pair exit same race and seem to have little seperating them. (Empiricist was further back in that event as well, and then competed in an OTT heat.) Imaging has faced serious foes in FL this winter and figures as the most likely upsetter if the faves fail. Halefellow Wellmet will get play and I won't fault those including him. But I wouldn't trust the ACRC debut fig, and the horse behind him there (Bellhouse) is a chronic case that can't win.. Most Likely: #7 Clear Attempt 9-5 WON ($4.50) Next Best: #3 Colossal Gift 3-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Imaging 5-1 4th Super Add: #8 Empiricist 10-1 3rd $1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $6.50 $1 Trifecta (7-3-8) Paid $31.50 $1 Superfecta (7-3-8-5) Paid $100.20 5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Fleeting Glance 7-2 3rd Next Best: #2 Grace and Courage 4-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Must Be Love 5-1 WON ($9.60) Super Add: #3 Olive Eye 8-1 9th $1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $18.00 $1 Trifecta (1-2-8) Paid $55.00 <$75 P4 Play: 2: 3-4-6 3: 1-2-5 4: 3-5-7-8 5: 1-2-3-8 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) With the 7th to follow, this middle pair of races are the most difficult portion of the sequence to negotiate. Several here have efforts on their page that can win this, and there are trainer shifts and other karma moves to consider in this chess match of a sprint. Was Able Bellamy just mudlarking in his April win? How much of a move up can you expect from Prince of Danger going to Fawkes from Tesher and facing Empire breds for the first time? How about the first start at 3 for Our Brave Warrior now with Hushion? Turf to dirt a positive move for Trombetta (Decision Point), and gelding did break his maiden on the strip. Is Jungle Rain an AQI Inner jump up only? Many more issues like these to decipher.. Most Likely: #6 Able Bellamy 4-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Prince of Danger 6-1 WON ($9.20) Next Best: #10 Our Brave Warrior 5-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Jungle Rain 7-2 5th $1 Exacta (9-6) Paid $35.25 $1 Pick 3 (7/1/9) Paid $91.00 7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Not a lot of wisdom to impart here as there are almost no auto-tosses out of this brain-bending group. Trips will determine outcome, so you have to cast your lot and hope for the best.. Best Value: #11 Mustang Fever 10-1 10th Next Best: #7 Ms Stilleto 3-1 WON ($5.20) Exotics Use: #5 Lemon Punch 5-1 7th Super Add: #1 Downtown Hottie 15-1 5th 8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super) Turf sprint that seems to have a fairly well-defined pecking order. AE #13 Saratoga Steve (5-1) has drawn in and needs to be respected.. Most Likely: #11 Upper Afleet 5-2 2nd Next Best: #13 Saratoga Steve 5-1 3rd Best Value: #10 Tudor King 6-1 5th Exotics Use: #1 Backcountry Boy 20-1 10th 9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super) #8 R Clever Cat 8-5 a SCR! Best Value: #6 Windsor Star 15-1 4th Next Best: #3 Vintage Heirloom 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #11 Tillie's Girl 12-1 6th Super Add: #4 Copious Notes 6-1 WON ($9.80) <$200 P6 Play: 4: 3-5-7 5: 2-8 6: 6-9 7: 7-11 8: 11-13 9: 3-6 3x2x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 5-6-9-10 7: 5-7-11 8: 10-11-13 9: 3-4-6-11 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-15-2011 at 04:27 PM. 
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#2
06-15-2011, 09:47 AM
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Last edited by Kasept : 06-15-2011 at 10:07 AM.
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#3
06-15-2011, 10:00 AM
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4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)
$1.1MM P6 Carryover starts here.. Top pair exit same race and seem to have little seperating them. (Empiricist was further back in that event as well, and then competed in an OTT heat.) Imaging has faced serious foes in FL this winter and figures as the most likely upsetter if the faves fail. Halefellow Wellmet will get play and I won't fault those including him. But I wouldn't trust the ACRC debut fig, and the horse behind him there (Bellhouse) is a chronic case that can't win.. Most Likely: #7 Clear Attempt 9-5 Next Best: #3 Colossal Gift 3-1 Best Value: #5 Imaging 5-1 Super Add: #8 Empiricist 10-1 I like Empiricist in here a lot, especially if the turf gets a little firmer than GOOD. If he moves forward at all off that firm turf effort at Gulfstream, he should be right there with Clear Attempt and Colossal Gift, but likely 3 times the price. Last edited by Kasept : 06-15-2011 at 10:40 AM.
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#4
06-15-2011, 11:11 AM
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I have been chasing Empiricist his last couple of starts. The dam is LaGueriere, grade one winner sired by Lord at War. LaGueriere has dropped 6 winners from 10 foals including 2 stakes winners. Back in the day I bet all Lord at war offspring coming out of Winborne farm (diane Perkins). I'll play him myself.
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#5
06-15-2011, 01:17 PM
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Phuck, that was annoying.. Would have liked Ask the Moon to get by there...
The P6? Settled on just a $48 try. Tough sequence... Track Name: Belmont (BED) Race: 4 Pool: P6 Selections: 3, 5, 7 / 2, 8 / 6, 9 / 7 / 11 / 3, 6 Wager Amount: $2 Wager Total: $48 Good luck all!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
06-15-2011, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
 Good luck Steve on the 6!
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#7
06-15-2011, 01:47 PM
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I will never understand why people love betting Olive Eye so much.
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