Turbulent Descent

[odbaxter]

Can I get a few thoughts on her chances? I'm a big fan of hers and recognize she has beaten up on suspect competition in some of her races but being back out west could really be to her liking. Maybe Groupie Doll is too strong but I'm still looking to try and beat her.

[odbaxter]

Just looking at the prices at William Hill; they have 7/1 on TD and Musical Romance, 5/1 on Contested, and 6/4 on Groupie Doll. Any thought on what the odds might look like come post time?

[RockHardTen1985]

Groupie Doll 4-5. I cant see how she is higher then that. Not sure how they bet everyone else, I do feel like Contested is second most likely winner. Thats a long way second though, she has to improve a TON to beat the favorite.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by odbaxter

Can I get a few thoughts on her chances? I'm a big fan of hers and recognize she has beaten up on suspect competition in some of her races but being back out west could really be to her liking. Maybe Groupie Doll is too strong but I'm still looking to try and beat her.

I'm a little surprised she hasn't really improved at all since being in Pletcher's barn. I think she was better last year.

Groupie Doll is going to be tough to beat...but not impossible. For a crazy longshot, I might try and get Teddy's Promise in the money somehow. She's run well at Santa Anita, was part of a duel last time, where the horse she dueled with ended up finishing last and the horses who finished 1-3 were last and second to last early. Plus, she's run well going turf/synth to dirt on the past. She needs a lot of help and has little chance to win, but could spice up an exotic.

[Alabama Stakes]

keen insight Mr Hoss.

[postpicker]

Groupie Doll is the probable lowest priced horse in a BC race but she is no lock for one reason, Rajiv Maragh. He is capable of great rides but also he can give you a ride that makes you rip your hair out of your skull. The consistency is not there yet that makes him a top echelon jock. I want Maragh to ride Groupie Doll like a champion, the best horse in race, like he did on Derby Day. I hated how he rode her last out at Keeneland. He saved ground and waited for hole to open and it happened that day. But in the BC, that may not happen. So I will not make her my top choice and will use a couple of logical choices over her in an exacta along with a couple of longshots that can come from off the pace in case the race is chaotic. I do not think a horse will wire the field this year in the race.