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#1
12-31-2012, 08:29 AM
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12/31: Aqueduct ($31k 'must pay' P6 C/O)
Have flirted repeatedly with authentic big payout P4/P5 chances at Gulfstream & Santa Anita the past fortnight that could have evened my personal bankroll scorecard for 2012. Year comes to a close with one final chance, a $31k P6 C/O at Aqueduct that comes with the calendar-closing 'must pay' proviso. The sequence has spots where you can narrow or make stands but also has a couple races where price plays could juice the parlay. Hope it's been a good year for everyone. Let's work to make 2013 even better... Best wishes to you and yours for a safe, Happy, Healthy New Year!
 AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Sumo 8-5 (A) WON ($4.60) Best Value: #6 Cause I Can 8-1 (B) 3rd Next Best: #4 Bail Out the Banks 3-1 (B) DNF-Lost rider Exotics Use: #1 Jet Set Cat 8-1 (X) 2nd .10 SUPER: 3-4-6 with 3-4-6 with 1-3-4-6-8-9 with 1-3-4-6-8-9 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20) 5th: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Interesting, competitive Starter H'cap with lurking potential for upset. Frazil the clear horse to beat exiting Gravesend and there looks to be enough pace prompting involved to give him the stalk-and-go edge he needs. After him, it gets squirrely.. Most Likely: #9 Frazil 3-1 (A) 5th Best Value: #5 Driven by Solar 7-2 (B) WON ($9.00) Next Best: #4 Orsonian 4-1 (C) 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Footcandles 12-1 (C) 7th 6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD) These bottom level maiden claimers frequently play out differently than they look and for that reason even money Permiele may not be the slam dunk she looks on paper. A small ticket single certainly from Jacobson and with Ramon, but Miss Conception (8-1), Attempted (12-1), Phantasticus (3-1), One Or the Other (30-1) and Buck Stops Here (6-1) all have races in their PP's or angles that hint at puncher's chance upset.. Most Likely: #6 Permiele 1-1 (A) WON ($2.70) Next Best: #2 SCR Best Value: #9 One Or the Other 30-1 (B) 6th Exotics Use: #4 Attempted 12-1 (C) 8th 7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD) What a nice group this is... #10 hole is tough spot from which to negotiate, but Sailmate gets pilot upgrade and pace to close into if Irad can work out trip. Fun race.. Best Value: #10 Sailmate 12-1 (A) 3rd Next Best: #4 All of the Above 6-1 (B) 6th Exotics Use: #1 Big Business 5-2 (B) 2nd Super Add: #6 Gallant Fields 3-1 (B) WON ($9.40) .10 SUPER: Key 10 in 1st-2nd with 1-2-5-4-6 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00) 8th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (DD) Anaphylaxis' stake try behind Sportswriter would be very tough here, but am concerned he's not going to get a lot of pace up front. Under those conditions, the lean goes to Ramon controling things on Bond's Mr Cowboy.. Most Likely: #3 Mr Cowboy 3-1 (A) 4th Best Value: #2 Anaphylaxis 8-1 (B) 2nd Exotics Use: #10 Reggie D 5-1 (C) 10th Super Add: #7 Ali's Winner 20-1 (X) 9th 9th:CLM, 3+, 1m-70y Well matched group to close things out for 2012. Minescape and Terminus both entered off also-ran tries v. better in Boxing Day 7th. Will need to see if either demures.. Most Likely: #8 Minescape 7-2 (A) 5th Best Value: #4 Truetap 6-1 (A) 7th Next Best: #11 Point Taken 5-2 (B) 10th Exotics Use: #5 Terminus 3-1 (B) WON ($11.60) <$200 P6 Play: 4: 3-4-6 5: 5-9 6: 6 7: 1-4-6-10 8: 2-3 9: 4-8 3x2x1x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$50 P4 Play: 6: 2/SCR-6-9 7: 1-4-6-10 8: 2-3 9: 4-5-8-11 2x4x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 12-31-2012 at 03:36 PM. 
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#2
12-31-2012, 10:01 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
12-31-2012, 01:08 PM
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#5
12-31-2012, 01:13 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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