9/14: Belmont Park (1st-10th)

[Kasept]

Spent more than usual chasing Belmont C/O Friday and came away frustrated going 4 of 6. Miscues came in overvaluing Guyana Princess versus Sense of a Woman ($4.40) in the 4th and via a dreadful effort from Cornelio Velasquez (Summer Place to Be) in the 8th allowing inferior Street Swagg every opportunity to beat him on the front end. (Having exchanged thoughts with Tony Dutrow after the race, you can be assured he wasn't too happy either.) Winners who hit the sextet got back nearly $100k. Had some successes during the day with Thomas Hill ($16.80), Morethanawarning ($17.40) and Quinby Pete ($8.00) but was more annoyed overall than pleased. Hope everyone did OK. Nice Saturday card at the Big B with a terrific G1 Garden City on tap. Good action to be had at Kentucky Downs, Delaware and elsewhere today as well..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

As discussed Friday with Mike Beer, a very good, deep start to the P5..

Best Value: #4 Revocation 4-1 WON ($7.50)
Next Best: #6 Ithastobegeorge 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1a Make Your Move 7-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Dawly 3-1 2nd


2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Now or never for Tiz for Tat?

Most Likely: #7 Tiz for Tat 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 King of Broadway 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Tony D 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Scam 3-1 WON ($10.80)


3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

A very weak group and a level notorious for bizarre upsets. Mr. G. Zee, Prometheus Crown and Sir Maurice dive from NY-MSW company into the abyss. Pat Kelly debuts a Performing Magic colt that his late father bred, Magical Salute..

Most Likely: #1 Mr. G. Zee 6-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #9 Keyaly 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Ten Ed 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Prometheus Crown 10-1 7th


4th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Finally get Corybant on the turf but he meets a very solid group for the lawn bow. Has speed to enjoy up close inside trip and reunites with pilot that guided him to MDN win. Up against it from a win perspective but would be thrilled with confirmation of some grass ability and a minor award..

Most Likely: #9 Deterrent 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Freud's Debut 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Force Multiplier 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Sky Lover 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Corybant 30-1 7th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Divine Energy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Mischieviously 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Who's Z Daddy 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Tightly Bridled 5-1 7th


<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-4-6
2: 7
3: 1-2-8-9
4: 2-9
5: 4-5-7-9

3x1x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-7
3: 1-2-8-9
4: 2-9
5: 4-5-7-9

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Had hoped to get My Pal of Pals into this set but has to await field with room after running the CLM event in Saratoga. As with all these state bred turf ALW's, a well-matched field that invites the use of juicy numbers. Be thankful this isn't in a P4..

Best Value: #2 Greeley Pack 12-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Iron Power 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Dark Roast 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Make a Decision 7-2 5th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Fun group. Toy Land, away since winter, returns from race that happened to include Catalano Friday Arlington MDN-breaker Can't Catch Kate. Cloture gets addition of Lasix for 3yo bow and faced nothing but toughies as a 2yo. Price is right..

Best Value: #6 Cloture 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Toy Land 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Medea 4-1 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #5 Jewel Kat 3-1 8th


8th: 26th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Am regularly against Michael Matz' runners but his horses have been performing with 20% W's overall over the last 90 days and 5/16 in stakes (1 graded) over that period (Yuzuru, Assateague, Dancing to Town, Colonial Flag, Somali Lemonade). Assateague is going to be loose on the lead in this; could pull a Laughing and not allow anyone to pass..

Best Value: #2 Assateague 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Better Lucky 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Hungry Island 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Peace Preserver 10-1 WON ($34.20)


9th: 35th Garden City (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Mott nearly unstoppable when targeting spots like this and Emollient looks like much the horse to beat. Schwartz/C. Brown always tough with imports like Alterlite. NY-bred Discreet Marq is the latest quality product in a steady line from the Generazio Family. Caroline Thomas was moved up in the Lake Placid but ran very well. Gets a pace set up here and may be ignored..

Most Likely: #1 Emollient 3-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Alterlite 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #11 Caroline Thomas 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Discreet Marq 7-2 2nd


10th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 1m-T

Terrific nightcap. Don't take short numbers..

Most Likely: #11 Short Shrift 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Why Not Whiskey 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Bluegrass Springs 12-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Southern Tier 7-2 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-7
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6
9: 1-4
10: 6-8-11-12

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Spent more than usual chasing Belmont C/O Friday and came away frustrated going 4 of 6. Miscues came in overvaluing Guyana Princess versus Sense of a Woman ($4.40) in the 4th and via a dreadful effort from Cornelio Velasquez (Summer Place to Be) in the 8th allowing inferior Street Swagg every opportunity to beat him on the front end. (Having exchanged thoughts with Tony Dutrow after the race, you can be assured he wasn't too happy either.) Winners who hit the sextet got back nearly $100k. Had some successes during the day with Thomas Hill ($16.80), Morethanawarning ($17.40) and Quinby Pete ($8.00) but was more annoyed overall than pleased. Hope everyone did OK. Nice Saturday card at the Big B with a terrific G1 Garden City on tap. Good action to be had at Kentucky Downs, Delaware and elsewhere today as well..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

As discussed Friday with Mike Beer, a very good, deep start to the P5..

Best Value: #4 Revocation 4-1 WON ($7.50)
Next Best: #6 Ithastobegeorge 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1a Make Your Move 7-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Dawly 3-1 2nd


2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Now or never for Tiz for Tat?

Most Likely: #7 Tiz for Tat 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 King of Broadway 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Tony D 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Scam 3-1 WON ($10.80)


3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

A very weak group and a level notorious for bizarre upsets. Mr. G. Zee, Prometheus Crown and Sir Maurice dive from NY-MSW company into the abyss. Pat Kelly debuts a Performing Magic colt that his late father bred, Magical Salute..

Most Likely: #1 Mr. G. Zee 6-5 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #9 Keyaly 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Ten Ed 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Prometheus Crown 10-1 7th


4th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Finally get Corybant on the turf but he meets a very solid group for the lawn bow. Has speed to enjoy up close inside trip and reunites with pilot that guided him to MDN win. Up against it from a win perspective but would be thrilled with confirmation of some grass ability and a minor award..

Most Likely: #9 Deterrent 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Freud's Debut 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Force Multiplier 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Sky Lover 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Corybant 30-1 7th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Divine Energy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Mischieviously 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Who's Z Daddy 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Tightly Bridled 5-1 7th


<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-4-6
2: 7
3: 1-2-8-9
4: 2-9
5: 4-5-7-9

3x1x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-7
3: 1-2-8-9
4: 2-9
5: 4-5-7-9

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Had hoped to get My Pal of Pals into this set but has to await field with room after running the CLM event in Saratoga. As with all these state bred turf ALW's, a well-matched field that invites the use of juicy numbers. Be thankful this isn't in a P4..

Best Value: #2 Greeley Pack 12-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Iron Power 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Dark Roast 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Make a Decision 7-2 5th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Fun group. Toy Land, away since winter, returns from race that happened to include Catalano Friday Arlington MDN-breaker Can't Catch Kate. Cloture gets addition of Lasix for 3yo bow and faced nothing but toughies as a 2yo. Price is right..

Best Value: #6 Cloture 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Toy Land 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Medea 4-1 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #5 Jewel Kat 3-1 8th


8th: 26th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Am regularly against Michael Matz' runners but his horses have been performing with 20% W's overall over the last 90 days and 5/16 in stakes (1 graded) over that period (Yuzuru, Assateague, Dancing to Town, Colonial Flag, Somali Lemonade). Assateague is going to be loose on the lead in this; could pull a Laughing and not allow anyone to pass..

Best Value: #2 Assateague 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Better Lucky 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Hungry Island 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Peace Preserver 10-1 WON ($34.20)


9th: 35th Garden City (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (DD)

Mott nearly unstoppable when targeting spots like this and Emollient looks like much the horse to beat. Schwartz/C. Brown always tough with imports like Alterlite. NY-bred Discreet Marq is the latest quality product in a steady line from the Generazio Family. Caroline Thomas was moved up in the Lake Placid but ran very well. Gets a pace set up here and may be ignored..

Most Likely: #1 Emollient 3-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Alterlite 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #11 Caroline Thomas 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Discreet Marq 7-2 2nd


10th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 1m-T

Terrific nightcap. Don't take short numbers..

Most Likely: #11 Short Shrift 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Why Not Whiskey 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Bluegrass Springs 12-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Southern Tier 7-2 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-7
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6
9: 1-4
10: 6-8-11-12

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

very tough being live to 4 and not cashing... Timeform best fig winner in the Stake to boot

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by freddymo

very tough being live to 4 and not cashing... Timeform best fig winner in the Stake to boot

No kidding Freddy.. Thought Short Shrift was in good position as they turned for home and then was hoping Whiskey could rally up, but no dice.

Peace Preserver was also a big player on Thoro-Graph figs and one of their Best Bets Saturday.