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Old 10-07-2016, 08:21 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Default 10/7: Keeneland (Opening Day; 6th-10th)

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Valadorna ran well at a mile first out versus a fancy field including Alcibiades player Queen Bernardina (Won) and Untappable sister Untapped (3rd). Mo's M V P appears to be moving forward with experience..

Most Likely: #9 Valadorna 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Mo's M V P 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Ethylene 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Miss O'Hara 30-1 6th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nice group but Tiz Jeweled ran into some tough customers while searching for diploma and has explosive 'race two back' development pattern I love to spot. Clement at 8-1 suits. Walking the Kitten the filly to beat and draw adds to appeal of alternate key horse as top tab. Inchargeofme offers sweet Shuggy upside. Amnicalola, Play the Break & Quiet Business are exotics candidates..

Most Likely: #7 TIZ JEWELED 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Walking the Kitten 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #6 Inchargeofme 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Amnicalola 5-2 6th

.10 SUPER: 7/10 with 1/6/7/10 with 1/5/6/7/8/10 with 1/5/6/7/8/10 (2x3x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


8th: Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Bravo and A.P. Indian want to get out of the gate and establish position and it will be interesting to see what Leparoux and rock solid W.B. Smudge do early in terms of pressing the favorite. Outside meanwhile, lead-needing Cinco Charlie most likely to be the pace-setter with newly blinkered Limousine Liberal, fast already, a prompter inside on his home strip. Alsvid and Ami's Flatter can potentially be the recipients of a pace set-up..

Most Likely: #1 A.P. Indian 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 W.B. Smudge 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Ami's Flatter 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Limousine Liberal 5-1 2nd


9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Superb lineup for this post-poly resurrected G1. Mrs. Wyeth's Motion-helmed Dancing Rags improved going T2D while stretching to a mile and now adds Lasix for 3rd career start. Bonus tote in bulky field. Out of an Empire Maker mare, 10-1 Fun saves all the ground for Wilkes while returning to Hernandez for route debut. Aforementioned Queen Bernardina adds Bravo and looks tactical behind the speed for Donnie K. Favored Daddys Lil Darling will have to work out a trip from #14, but pace will be there for her to chase. Dream Dancing and Diadura appear major threats getting on dry/fast dirt for first time..

Best Value: #4 Dancing Rags 12-1 WON ($26.60)
Next Best: #1 Fun 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Queen Bernardina 10-1 8th
Super Add: #14 Daddys Lil Darling 7-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-14) PAID $106.50
$1 Trifecta (4-14-1) PAID $897.20



10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

If it isn't the Ramsey entry, it could be almost any of these.. As Scully mentioned yesterday, this is a spot where meet title-obsessed outfit typically scores, but this feels like a treacherous event..

Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry 4-1 WON ($4.00)/4th
Best Value: #2 Remembermis 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 McHenry 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Rate for Me 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Chasin Charlie 8-1 7th


P5 Grid:

6: 9 (A), 7 (B), 4-8-10 (C)
7: 7-10 (A), 6 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
8: 1-2 (A), 3-4-5 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 3-8-14 (B), 6-11 (C)
10: 1 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x2x2x2x1 = $8 ($4 for .50)
Full (A/B/C): $85 (16 tickets; See below)

$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $277.60 ($555.20 for All A's $1)

$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $3.60 (4OF5) x 11 = $39.60 (A+B)
$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $3.60 (4OF5) x 3 = $10.80 (All A's)
$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $3.60 (4OF5) x 10 = $36.00 (A/B/C)


All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 6 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 6 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $3.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 3,8,14 with 1 $9.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P5: 4,8,10 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $12.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 1,5,8 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 6,7 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 6,11 with 1 $4.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 2,10 $8.00

Total: $85.00


P4 Grid:

7: 7-10 (A), 6 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
8: 1-2 (A), 3-4-5 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 3-8-14 (B), 6-11 (C)
10: 1 (A), 2 (B), 5-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x2x1 = $8 ($4 for .50)
Full (A/B/C): $77 (15 tickets; See below)

$0.50 Pick-4 (10/1/4/1) Paid $166.55 ($333.10 for All A's $1)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 2 $4.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 3,8,14 with 1 $9.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 2 $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 2 $6.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,8 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 6,7 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 6,11 with 1 $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 5,9,10 $12.00

Total: $77.00


Good luck!
Steve
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Last edited by Kasept : 10-08-2016 at 05:46 AM.
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Old 10-07-2016, 09:35 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
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I think the 6th is dirt.
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  #3  
Old 10-07-2016, 10:08 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I think the 6th is dirt.
Thanks Joe.. It is.
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Old 10-07-2016, 10:08 AM
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KEE SCR/CHG'S
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Old 10-07-2016, 11:18 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Thanks Joe.. It is.
Like the 5 a lot.
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Old 10-07-2016, 11:38 AM
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Good luck Steve, I'm on Tiz Jeweled as well. Hope the price holds up.
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Old 10-07-2016, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bogey View Post
Good luck Steve, I'm on Tiz Jeweled as well. Hope the price holds up.
He was on the best part of the track at Suffolk 2 back
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Old 10-07-2016, 05:20 PM
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atolunch atolunch is offline
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Little sloppy in that 7th, having to go to your second choice!

What an incredible display today. Congrats and thanks as always!!

Great job
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Old 10-07-2016, 05:23 PM
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Steve..thanks so much for Dancing Rags!! Great work as always!!
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Old 10-07-2016, 06:10 PM
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Steve, great call on Dancing Rags! Thanks.
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Old 10-07-2016, 07:33 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Larry, Billy, Max, Dave..

Thanks a lot. Really fun afternoon. Particularly pleased for the A's players. That Alcibiades winner looked like a beach ball to me. Hope everyone did well!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 10-07-2016, 09:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Larry, Billy, Max, Dave..

Thanks a lot. Really fun afternoon. Particularly pleased for the A's players. That Alcibiades winner looked like a beach ball to me. Hope everyone did well!
Great job especially on Alcibiades winner...
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Old 10-08-2016, 05:43 AM
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Quote:
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Great job especially on Alcibiades winner...
Thanks Jim! That's really all it took for a good day. Probably a lesson in there.

Good luck today..
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 10-08-2016, 05:48 AM
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Congratulations are in order for 'NC Tony' Montanino who popped the $1 Alcibiades Super for $8,167.20 in attendance Friday!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 10-08-2016, 10:30 AM
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Steve, Great work
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