8/9 Saratoga Steeplechase

[Flatterer]

The only steeplechase race this week is a handicap over 2 3/8 miles. There is an interesting mix of recent maiden graduates, solid handicap and stakes winning runners.

This is a 5 turn race with 9 jumps and a ½ mile flat run after the last jump to the finish.

Here is a look at the field with handicap rating next to the name – (higher rating is better). The National Steeplechase Association has not changed ratings since July 14 so ratings do not reflect Saratoga results. I have included my rating at the end of the write up for each runner.

#1- Orchestra Leader (127) – Trainer Ricky Hendricks uses 1st call jockey Ross Geraghty for this runner that has distance limitations. 5 turns and 155 pounds are too much and he will fade on the backstretch after setting the pace. Hendricks is good off the claim but distance is just too much. Beat Ricky’s Smithwick winner Swansea Mile in last by 2 ½. Good turf speed. He may run 4th for bottom of super if no one closes. (125)

#2- Plated (118) – Nice win at Nashville 5/13 and gets hot Saratoga jockey Dalton. He won over course in 2015 and has good turf speed. He gets in relatively light at 146. 8YO has been hit or miss after taking a year off. Underneath in exotics. (117)

#3- Choral Society (128) – AP Smithwick winner of 2015 has not been the same this year for top trainer Fisher and top win jockey Nagle. Fisher adds blinkers to try and wake him up but still has to carry 156 pound high weight. Excellent turf speed but no closing pace at Parx flat 7/8. Hard to recommend. (123)

#4- Fantastic Song (115) – Trainer Bentley based at Fair Hill and jockey Garner from Oliver Sherwood barn in England with his 2nd mount at the meet have a good chance with lightweight 143 pounds and excellent turf speed. Has run well both times at Saratoga. Strong chance since he beat Swithwick winner Swansea Mile by ¾ of a length at Charleston SC on 4/8. Has an excuse over boggy Fair Hill course on 5/27 and closed fast at Parx flat on 7/8. Jockey McDermott takes off to ride #7 for trainer Fisher. Must use in exotics. (120)

#5- Hardrock Eleven (126) – Unremarkable 2017 campaign with 3 fourth place finishes. Has run well at Saratoga with good turf speed but has never run this far. Distance limitation and 154 pound package will keep him off the board. Since he likes to run 4th chance at bottom of super. (121)

#6- No Wunder (116) – First steeplechase runner to come back for a 2nd time at Saratoga this meet. Trainer Voss and jockey Doyle are a good team but this runner has burned $$$ in his last 2 starts. Good turf speed and light weight 144 pounds helps but poor jumping in his last and extra distance hurt chances. He might land at bottom of super. (116)

#7- Selection Sunday (125) – Top trainer Fisher and money winning jockey McDermott team up with a better than average chance. Ran fast at Atlanta 4/22 and has run OK at Saratoga. Another runner that took 2016 off. He has good turf speed. Use 2nd or 3rd in tris and supers. (124)

#8- Giza (118)- Will Trainer Sheppard win a race at Saratoga this year? He teams up with 2 time meet winner jockey Mitchell to try and boot this recent maiden winner home. Did not beat much in jump tries and has slow turf speed. Pass. (113)

Race Shape: With 5 turns, saving ground is important. #1 Orchestra Leader and #8 Giza will go for the lead. Mitchell on #8 will put a strangle hold that will discourage the horse from running the 2nd half of the race when it counts. #2 Plated will be in 2nd flight and save ground. #6 No Wunder and #7 Selection Sunday will be in the next flight with the others trailing. #4 Fantastic Song will be last saving ground until the 7th fence when he makes a strong move past the collapsing front runners on the backstretch and finishes with best closing kick.

I’m not real confident with these runners. Look at early betting for clues.

Selections: A) 4 B) 7

Projected order of finish: 4-7-2-1-5-6-3-8

Good luck at the races!