9/4-5: Churchill Downs (146th Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks )

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Essential Quality 3-1: Godolphin Tapit homebred out of fast sprint mare.. WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Santa Cruiser 15-1: Desormeaux firster a half to quick Beau Oxy.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Rye Sense of Humor 6-1: Chased Drop Anchor home at ELP.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Xietelhuas 12-1: May want turf, but Eric Reed sharp debut guy.. 11th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Spanish Kingdom 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 On a Spree 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #4 Trident Hit 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Attorney Tim 8-1 4th


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Cowboy Diplomacy 7-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Cool Bobby 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Wayne O 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Coastal Defense 8-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

One of the weekend's most interesting races. 10-1 Tank Commander is a regally bred ouchy type with an ideal behind the speed style..

Best Value: #5 Tank Commander 10-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Locally Owned 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Signalman 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Chess Chief 6-1 8th


8th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Smooth Like Strait 8-5 4th
Best Value: #2 American Butterfly 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Field Pass 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Fancy Liquor 9-2 WON ($11.60)


P5 Grid:

4: 4-5-11 (A), 1-6-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-5-12 (A), 7-9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54 (4-5-11 with 5-8 with 6-11 with 4-5-12 with 2-4-8)


P4 Grid:

5: 5-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
6: 4-6-11 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5-7-12 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x6x1 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-8 with 4-6-11 with 4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8)


9th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (.20 Must Pay Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Echo Town 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Digital 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rushie 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Tap It to Win 4-1 3rd


10th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Therideofalifetime 7-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Ultimate Badger 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Super Stock 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Belafonte 20-1 10th


11th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Juliet Foxtrot 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Daddy Is a Legend 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 La Signare 10-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

7: 4-5-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 2-5-9 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 4x1x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 4x3x3x2x1 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8 with 2-5-9 with 4-10 with 1)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-5-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10 (2-5 with 2-5-6-7-9 with 4-10 with 5)


12th: Derby City Distaff (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ce Ce 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Serengeti Empress 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Bell's the One 10-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Bellafina 3-1 6th


13th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Sacred Life 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Mr Dumas 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Factor This 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rockemperor 7-2 3rd


14th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #17 Tiz the Law 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #16 Honor A.P. 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #18 Authentic 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Best Value: #3 Enforceable 30-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Thousand Words Late SCR
Hi-5 Play: #15 Ny Traffic 20-1 8th


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 8 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)


Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18) $3 Oaks-Derby Double (7/18) Paid $522.60

Backup: 3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)


.20 'Must Pay' Single Six:

9: 2-4-5-6-9
10: 3-4-6-10
11: 3-4
12: 4-6-8-9-10
13: 8
14: 16-17

All A's: 5x4x2x5x1x2 = 400 x .20 = $80


P5 Grid:

10: 4-10 (A), 3-6-8-9 (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-4-6-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x1x4x1x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)
Backup: 2x1x4x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48 (4-10 with 4 with 1-4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-6-9 with 16-17)


P4 Grid:

11: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-3-4-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), 3-18 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x1x2 = 6 x $2 = $12
Backup: 1x3x5x2 = 30 x .50 = $15 (4 with 4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-9 with 16-17)


Safe trips all; Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH OAKS DAY


POST-LATE SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Scorching Wayne Catalano (Ocean Breeze here, Manny Wah SCR in 6th, MDN Pit Boss in the 3rd Saturday) is 11 for 44 over the last 90 days with 28 of 44 in the money..

Most Likely: #6 Ocean Breeze 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 She Can't Sing 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Miss T Too 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Palomita 7-2 2nd


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Honorifique 12-1: 2nd timer bulleted; Kenneally poised for nice weekend.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Travel Column 7-2: $850k Frosted from Cox for Larry Best.. WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Amiche 9-2: Firster savvy Devaux w/ 3 graded STK run'rs at CD, SAR.. 10th
Super Add: #5 Three Tipsy Chix 20-1: Wilkes will have On Fire Baby baby ready to run.. 8th


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Strike That 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Honest Mischief 2-1 WON-Up via DQ ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Mojo Man 10-1 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Mucho 8-1 5th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.20 Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 I Hear You 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Sicilia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Sense You Left 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Flabbergasted 3-1 WON ($8.60)


8th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Interchangeable faves poised for big, early confrontation and Sconsin poised if pair burn each other out..

Most Likely: #7 Four Graces 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Mundaye Call 6-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sconsin 6-1 WON ($16.40)


P5 Grid:

4: 1-3-6
5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7
8: 1-6-7-10

All A's: 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


P4 Grid:

5: 3-5-8-11
6: 2-5-8
7: 7-8-10
8: 1-6-7-10

All A's: 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


9th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sharing one of weekends most likely winners; 20-1 Lucky Betty is no worse than the other exotic candidates..

Most Likely: #3 Sharing 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #2 Hendy Woods 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Lucky Betty 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 In Good Spirits 5-1 4th


10th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (2-day $2 P6, P4, P3, DD)

Top pair have clear edge on rest of the field..

Most Likely: #2 McKinzie 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 By My Standards 7-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #1 Silver Dust 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Owendale 6-1 2nd


2-day $2 P6 Grid:

FRI 10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
FRI 12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 12: 10 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
SAT 13: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 14: 17 (A), 16-18 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A's: 2x2x3x1x1x1 = 12 x $2 = $24


11th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

After conquering Midnight Bisou at the Spa, can Vexatious best Monomoy Girl here? Why not?

Best Value: #2 Vexatious 4-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Exotics Use: #6 She's a Julie 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Horologist 4-1 3rd


12th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks-Derby DBL, DD, Hi-5)

What had been billed as a Swiss Skydiver/Gamine duel is now clearly a 3 way battle with Speech unlikely to sneak up on anyone after several weeks of attention. Using all 3 in multis. Shedaresthedevil needs to take another step forward for laurels, but she does keep improving..

Most Likely: #5 Gamine 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Speech 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Swiss Skydiver 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Shedaresthedevil 20-1 WON ($32.20)
Hi-5 Play: #3 Donna Veloce 15-1 8th


P5 Grid:

8: 1-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (1-5-7 with 3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $0.50 Pick-5 (5/3,5/6/8/7) Paid $1,413.70


P4 Grid:

9: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

All A's: 1x2x2x3 = 12 x $4 = $48
Backup: 1x2x2x1 = $4 (3 with 2-6 with 2-8 with 7) $1 Pick-4 (3,5/6/8/7) Paid $256.20


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 8 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)


Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)


13th: Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T

Ageless Extravagant Kid the horse to beat, but there's no margin for error and another baker's half dozen eligible for laurels if it isn't him..

Most Likely: #5 Extravagant Kid 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Carotari 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Chaps 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wellabled 10-1 12th


P4 Grid:

10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
13: 5-10-12 (A), 1-2-6-13-14 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x8 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Safe trips all; Let's get lucky!
Steve

[knickslions2]

Steve you playing the pick 4 races 5-8. Seems to be best value of the day. Good luck

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Steve you playing the pick 4 races 5-8. Seems to be best value of the day. Good luck

Tom.. Slapped up caveman 4/5. Good luck!

[atolunch]

Boom goes the dynamite!!

TREMENDOUS call on Shedaresthedevil. Monster start to a great weekend.

Congrats and thanks as always!!

[moses]

Great call Steve. Wish I followed along with the 7.

[cassie]

i finally used a c to win thanks

[Kasept]

Larry.. Mose.. Cassie..

Thanks a lot. Pleased with most of what went on and hope everyone did well. Let's get some more tomorrow!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Gamlin1

Good Capping Steve TY for all you do!!

G..

Thank you and appreciate the kind words..

Hope you had a good day Friday and a better day today!

[moses]

Good luck today Steve. For your grid for Race 11, you have the 5 listed a few times but I believe it should be the 3.

[Kasept]

CD SCR’S

Huge pace-affecting scratches of Mia Mischief and No Parole…

First post 11 a.m. - Fast/Good (Lane 1).

R2: 3
R3: 8, 9
R4: 13
R5: 13-15
R6: 8, 9
R8: 6
R9: 7
R11: 1, 5
R12: 1, 5, 7
R14: 1, 6

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck today Steve. For your grid for Race 11, you have the 5 listed a few times but I believe it should be the 3.

Thx Mose.. Transcribed her odds.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

CD SCR’S

Huge pace-affecting scratches of Mia Mischief and No Parole…

First post 11 a.m. - Fast/Good (Lane 1).

R2: 3
R3: 8, 9
R4: 13
R5: 13-15
R6: 8, 9
R8: 6
R9: 7
R11: 1, 5
R12: 1, 5, 7
R14: 1, 6

Very big. I didn’t realize the She’sonthewarpath was out of Distaff Turf Mile until now either. Some pretty big pace impacts.

[Uncle Daddy]

Another fun and insightful Derby week Steve. Thanks for all the insight & work put in.
Good luck partner!

[elturko]

Best of Luck , Today plus all extra...🏆🏆