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Old 07-23-2009, 08:15 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default Saratoga 8f on inner turf

It would logically seem like the toughest post position of all at Saratoga would be breaking from post 10 going a mile on the inner turf.

Field size is limited to just 10 at the mile distance on the inner - and with a fairly short run to the first turn - and tighter turns - it would seem a nearly impossible draw.

I have post stats going back to '96 though, and post 10 wins at 17%. The second highest win percentage is just 12%.

From '96 through '07 - it led post 3 15% to 13% for best win percentage.

Last year, extreme outside post 10 won 4 of 16 races at a mile on the Inner Turf ... and finished 2nd twice more... including Seven In a Row missing by a neck at 33/1 odds from post 10 in a race where the three extreme outside most post positions made up a trifecta that paid $3,305.00

Field size shouldn't be limited to 10 at a mile on the Inner. The numbers say that there is no grossly unfair disadvantage to being marooned wide out there with that short run into the tight first turn. Logic might say otherwise .. but 13 years of data trumps logic.

Last edited by The Indomitable DrugS : 07-23-2009 at 08:51 AM.
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