5/31: Belmont (1-11); Monmouth (6-10); Hollywood (3, 7-10), Churchill (10th)

[Kasept]

Tricky Belmont slate proved impossible Sunday setting up a double carryover of nearly $200k into the big Memorial Day Metropolitan Handicap card. The pool should blow past $1,000,000, a great prequel to next Saturday's Belmont Day gauranteed P4 and P6 pools for the same amount. Glut of stakes action around the country including pair of corkers at Hollywood, and a nice sequence of black type affairs at Lone Star Park. Here's the schedule of events, many of which will be featured on today's "At the Races" which will originate from beautiful Belmont Park!

3:40-Belmont 6 (C/O P6 Leg A)
4:12-Belmont 7 (P6 Leg B)
4:27-Lone Star 5 (G3 Ouija Board H.)
4:44-Belmont 8 (P6 Leg C)
4:47-Calder 9 (G3 Memorial Day H.)
4:55-Lone Star 6 (Valid Expectations)
5:03-Hollywood 3 (G2 Honeymoon)
5:16-Belmont 9 (G2 Sands Point)
5:20-Monmouth 10 (G3 Eatontown)
5:23-Lone Star 7 (USA S.)
5:29-Churchill Downs (G3 Winning Colors)
5:49-Belmont 10 (G1 Metropolitan H.)
5:51-Lone Star 8 (Cinemine)
6:19-Lone Star (Dallas Turf Cup)
6:20-Belmont 11 (P6 Finale)
6:47-Lone Star 10 (Lone Star Park H.)
6:52-Golden Gate 7 (G3 Berkeley)
8:07-Hollywood 9 (G1 Shoemaker Mile)

Happy Memorial Day! Welcome to Summer!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Coach Gravy 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #7 Always On the Move 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 SCR
Super Add: #3 Lion's Lair 30-1 2nd


2nd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rollofthetundra 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Love and Havoc 9-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #7 Speciale Giorno 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 SCR


3rd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Karakorum Budman 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Mind Boggling 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Virtues Under Fire 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Just Abit Sandy 6-1 6th


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Christmas for Liam 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #8 Biloxi 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Ya Gotta Have Soul 15-1 4th
Super Add: #3 New Madrid 6-1 7th


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: # SCR
Most Likely: #4 Driven by Success 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #1 Speight of Hand 3-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 4-5
3: 1-3-6-8
4: 7
5: ALL

2x4x1x5 = $40


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Tough way to open a double carryover with a gaggle of non-descript what-nots..

Most Likely: #4 Peggy's Princesss 8-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Smarty Sister 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Vivant 7-2 7th
Super Add: #9 SCR


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Relatively Ready 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Smart Selection 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Key Victory 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Morethan Fourhours 4-1 WON ($11.60)


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Who is Lady 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Justify 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Glory in Motion 8-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Cap the Thunder 5-1 7th


9th: 16th Sands Point (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

SCR #6 Strike It Rich who won yesterday at MTH..

Most Likely: #3 Hit It Rich 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Negligee 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Khancord Kid 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 More Is Better 12-1 5th


10th: 117th Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

As historic, important and annually compelling as any race in North America. In this edition, anything other than a professional winning effort from the favorite would be surprising..

Most Likely: #7 QUALITY ROAD 4-5 WON ($2.50)
Best Value: #1 Convocation 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Warrior's Reward 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Musket Man 5-1 2nd


11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Strategic Missle 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Moonwalk Beauty 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Lisa Jean 7-2 WON ($6.30)
Super Add: #7 Triple Latte 6-1 9th


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-4-5-6-8
7: 5-8
8: 6
9: 3-8
10: 7
11: 2-3-7-9-10

5x2x1x2x1x5 = 100 x $2 = $200


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-6-7
9: 3-5-8
10: 7
11: 2-3-5-7-9-10

4x3x1x6 = $72



MONMOUTH PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Person of Interest 5-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Political Agenda 12-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Santa 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Clear Out 8-1 10th


7th: NJ-ALW/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Tough Jolter 9-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Adduce 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Dagnabit 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Just a Lion 12-1 5th


8th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ever a Friend 5-2 6th
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #2 Pickapocket 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Florentino 12-1 2nd


9th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Valid Sum 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #7 Elixer 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Prestidigitation 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Great Attack 9-2 2nd


10th: 40th Eatontown (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Eye of Taurus 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Scolara 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Maram 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Gypsy Warning 6-1 WON ($16.40)


<$100 P5 Play:

6: 3-4-7-10
7: 2-9
8: 1
9: 1-4-5-7
10: 1-2-5-6-7

4x2x1x4x5 = 160 x .50 = $80



CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


10th: 7th Winning Colors (G3), F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Emmy Darling 6-1
Next Best: #2 Double Espresso 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Hot Dixie Chick 3-1
Super Add: #7 J Z Warrior 6-1



HOLLYWOOD


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: 59th Honeymoon H. (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Evening Jewel 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #2 City to City 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Andina 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Cozi Rosie 5-2 2nd


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Unionize 6-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Bring It Home 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Rummysecret War 15-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Hughesy 5-2 7th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Derive 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Imco Spirit 6-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Dave's Pacemaker 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Brenthurst 4-1 6th


9th: 67th Shoemaker Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

As much as I like and respect Marty Jones and the nice Compari, the streaking gelding took the absolute worst of it at the pillbox and is difficult to endorse here. Note the amount of speed signed on today and look for someone to rally..

Best Value: #2 Victor's Cry 20-1 WON ($44.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Karelian 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Gallant Son 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Golden Balls 20-1 5th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #5 Nostalgic Bid 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #13 Sufi Dancer 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #11 Zilarator 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Greely's Ghost 6-1 4th
High 5 Play: #14 Songfoya 5-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-9
8: 1-6-8-9
9: 2-3-8
10: 5-11-13

2x4x3x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Sethcarter]

I read the other day the Pletcher is like 1 for 7 in the m-mile but playing against seems rather crazy to me...with this in mind, does anyway think playing the p4 at belmont is worth the money... Any thoughts?

[hockey2315]

How is that 1 in 7 stat possibly relevant?

[ateamstupid]

Pletcher has never won the Met. Which isn't really relevant.

[Sethcarter]

In this case, there probably isnt any reason to consider the stat given the trainer and horse.. I'm not sure why this stat stuck out at me. I guess I was looking for a reason to bet against. At this point, I cant think of any...

[Sethcarter]

To be honest, I only started playing the horse a couple of years ago. And I am not good at it. I started playing the horses out thanks to some friends who had tickets to the preakness. And since I coach at a college and due to NCAA regs. this is the only type of gambling that is allowed... I wouldnt rely on anything I say...

And honestly this is the hardest game in the world...

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

To be honest, I only started playing the horse a couple of years ago. And I am not good at it. I started playing the horses out thanks to some friends who had tickets to the preakness. And since I coach at a college and due to NCAA regs. this is the only type of gambling that is allowed... I wouldnt rely on anything I say...

And honestly this is the hardest game in the world...

Do you mean only type of sports betting ? I can't believe you aren't allowed to sit down at a card table in vegas or put a quarter in a slot machine.

BTW, QR has beaten every horse in the field except the 1 and 3 and only three horses have ever finished in front of him. As far as the p4 being worth the money if you like the other legs single him. Then I would back up your investment using Musket Man in the daily doubles.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

In this case, there probably isnt any reason to consider the stat given the trainer and horse.. I'm not sure why this stat stuck out at me. I guess I was looking for a reason to bet against. At this point, I cant think of any...

It's a strong field. Obviously, if Quality Road brings his 'A' game, they're running for second. I'm not saying that your approach is wrong, just that I wouldn't use Pletcher being 0-for-7 in the Met Mile as a reason to bet against QR.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Anyone looking at the .50 P5 at MTH? Looks interesting, but I'll will need to find a single as with the scratches in the last leg looks like a ALL play... I guess Ever a Friend will fall way below the 5-2 m/l in the wagering, and is close to a single as you'll find, a cut above the rest here.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Anyone looking at the .50 P5 at MTH? Looks interesting, but I'll will need to find a single as with the scratches in the last leg looks like a ALL play... I guess Ever a Friend will fall way below the 5-2 m/l in the wagering, and is close to a single as you'll find, a cut above the rest here.

dan,
That's a tough single. The six if he fires off the layoff is 6 of 8 at Monmouth, and the 2 looks usable to me.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by 3kings

dan,
That's a tough single. The six if he fires off the layoff is 6 of 8 at Monmouth, and the 2 looks usable to me.

I agree Tom, actually had him as an A as well, and really not comfortable leaving the 5 or the 9 off somehow... but have to cut somewhere, trying to kee the ticket under 100 beans... I may look to trim in the first leg (going 4 deep there), but I've got to use 3 in the 2nd leg.... Another possible single could be the 5 in the 4th leg coming off the BC try, may need one but on class alone should have the front end all to himself

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S


MTH SCR/CHG'S

[pointman]

Nice start getting that 3 in the tri in the 1st at Belmont, Steve! I didn't use personally, but almost got that 6.

[jms62]

Pick 6 insta Carry... Mike Luzzi why do I waste my money on betting anything you ride. Nyra has the Rosary beads out for a quintuple carry into Belmont Day,

Hollywood Park Late P4

2,4/1,2,3,4,10/8,10/5,10,13,14

[ninetoone]

Nice call on Victor's Cry Steve.

[pointman]

Nice job on Victor's Cry, Steve, you just bailed me out today. If you get this 5 home in the nightcap, you will have done a real nice magic trick to the bad opinions I had all day long!

[pointman]

Bykster, the super high five for an oncur, and almost straight! I hope you hit that super high five!

Tremendous job on the final two races at Hollywood, I had a saver on the 2/13 DD which paid huge, I put a Quinella on the 5/13, boxed the 5-11-13 tri and boxed the 10 cent 5-10-11-13 super. Great work and thanks for making a profitable ending to this weekend!

[Kasept]

9, Nick,

Thanks very much! Was a day and weekend of ups and downs. Glad to finish the intense 72 hours like that... Happy you, and anyone else, benefited!

$150,594 carry at HOL Wednesday and great week of action ahead in New York!