8/8: Saratoga (Day 16; $70k C/O)

[Kasept]

Rain may not have fallen Sunday at Saratoga, but a few happy tears were generated when Allen Iwinski earned his first G1 win as a trainer in the Vanderbilt with Sean Avery. The Saratoga winner's circle is almost always the 'happiest place on earth' to begin with, but given the Midatlantic conditioner's exit from the sport two years ago for a bout with life-threatening hepatitis and the travails of Sean Avery himself, it was a particularly joyous scene.

In addition to the individual accomplishment, Iwinski's success ended a quartet of victories by lesser known horsemen in the Spa standards over the weekend, with Mike Puype, Jimmy Bond and Stan Hough finding the end zone in the prior three major events. In terms of sending a message of hope for the 'rank and file' training community that doesn't have 200-300 horses in their alleged care, the weekend could not be a more welcome or heartening. The 4 horsemen have combined in their collective careers for nearly 5,200 wins and earnings of over $116,000,000, and prove that a good trainer can get a good horse to the highest level. If more were given a chance to do likewise, they would.

For wagering purposes, Sean Avery's win was delightful as well, as his $36.20 tote and $113 exacta with .70 Trappe Shot made the challenging afternoon bountiful. As suggested for approaching Sunday's racing, you needed to adjust your thinking to the conditions, and even novice players had to see that speed was nearly unstoppable on the Spa main all day. With that in mind, Sean Avery at 17-1 was a glaring opportunity with his Longfellow win at Monmouth as fast as anything anyone in the good field had in the PP's. He outlasted Trappe Shot to the wire, and provided handsome returns for confidence in his authenticity.

Leaving show pony Calibrachoa off the tri play cost me that exotic punt ($860.00), but the positive imprint of another individual horse on an otherwise marginal day of handicapping was made. I wasn't close on the multis throughout the afternoon, but Victory Island produced an $83.25 triple with Flea Flicker and Notesfromabroad in the 2nd that covered some action until the generous $52 Tar Heel Mom-Beat the Blues-Champagne d'Oro troika in the Test. The one that I'd really like to have back Sunday was Gary Gullo's Funky Munky Mama in the 7th at 14-1.. Hope you did well. Nearly a $70k carryover Monday!

TURF: 1st race (stake) remains ON the turf; All others (4th, 7th, 8th, 10th) are OFF the turf..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Gleaming-R, 3yo, 9.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Sky Blazer 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Eternal Ruler 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Seal Cove 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Super Add: #8 Witor 10-1 5th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Saratoga Snacks 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e Flying Zee entry 7-5 3rd/5th
Exotics Use: #5 Bay Park Boy 5-2 WON ($5.20)


3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Mr. Haywood 2-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Stinking Creek 5-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Next Page 7-2 4th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Jagati 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #6 Anonymous Donor 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Belvoir 12-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Turkish 8-1 8th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Albertrani entry 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Empress of Gold 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 American Angel 8-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3
3: ALL
4: 1-6-7-9
5: 1-4-6

2x6x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1a Toque 8-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #7 Sure Success 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Economic Swoon 3-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Dance Floor Maniac 5-1 4th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Backslash 5-2 7th
Next Best: #12 Demure Halo 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2b Keep It a Secret 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Annie's Melody 20-1 9th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Important to see what the SCR's do here..

Most Likely: #4 Lights Out Lisa 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Catchapenny K 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Myrtle's Gray 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #14 Let's Shoot Pool 7-2 5th

SCR ADD: #7 Guyana Princess 15-1


9th: OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Day of Destiny 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Litigation Risk 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Lou Brissie 4-1 3rd


10th: CLM, 3+, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #14 Cure 7-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Lil O's Expression 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #15 Jimanator 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Red Leader 8-1 WON ($15.60)


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-6
6: 1-7
7: 13
8: 4
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-9-14-15

3x2x1x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 12-13
8: 4-5-7-8-14
9: 3-7-9
10: 1-3-9-14-15

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[OldDog]

I didn't have Sean Avery, but was cheering for him down the stretch in spite of myself. He was only a head bob/stride from finishing 2nd. Great well-played ride by Joe Bravo. I sure would have liked to have seen Noble's Promise and Atta Boy Roy closer.

[ADJMK]

That is the same reason I loaded up on Roy. Should have hedged and bet both speeds. Bravo's years at Monmouth have taught him how to get a horse to the lead.

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S