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#1
06-08-2007, 11:08 AM
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Belmont Stakes Day - Saturday June 9
Here is my feeble attempt at handicapping the Saturday Card:
Race 2 - #8 Risky Agenda 9-2. Had excuse last out SCRATCH #9 Prom Party 5-2. Pletcher fave WON $5.60 Race 4 - #3 Berry Bound 5-1. Paired up and ready to move forward WON $7.60 #9 Smoky Chimney 8-5. Fastest fig last out. 2ND EXACTA $22.60 Race 5 - #8 Criminologist 8-1. Shug horse is competive with these OUT #11 Fantastic Shirl 9-2. Fastest figs but outside post. Race 6 - #1 Suave Jazz 6-1. Paired up 0 and entry mate aint too bad 2nd #5 Bordonaro 8-5. Fastest figs but is fave vulnerable? #7 Joey P. 8-1. Ran a zero last out and 8-1 is enticing. Race 7 - #2 My Typhoon 5-2. Consistent turf runner always there. WON 7-2 #5 Wait A While 6-5. Surprised her numbers dont tower over these 2nd Exacta $16 Race 8 - #2 Deadly Dealer 5-2. Tough wide open race. Play 3 here #3 Stormello 6-1. Back numbers are competitive can he sprint? #5 Sports Town 4-1. Pairing of last race wins this. Race 9 - #1 Dream Rush 7-5. Anything close to last makes her extra tough Race 10 - #2 English Channel 5-2. How will he react to Dubai? #8 Cosmonaut 5-1. Flying Zee has a nice one here. #9 Kiss the Kid 20-1. Weight and numbers = longshot special Race 11 - #6 Hard Spun 5-2. Maybe it is his turn in poor betting race. #7 Rags to Riches 3-1. Filly can compete here. #3 Curlin 6-5. Bounce candidate off last fast fig. Good Luck to All, PSH
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"Everybody's honest, when they can afford to be." Benny Binion Last edited by PSH : 06-09-2007 at 02:50 PM. 
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#2
06-08-2007, 11:21 PM
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PSH, I like your idea, I'll add my picks if you dont mind, we seem to agree on a couple of races.
Race 1- I really have zero opinion in this race, so i will pass and find plays elsewhere. Race 2 #1 The lone class speed horse in the field gets gogo up. If no one challenges up front( a very real possibility) He should hang on to win. Already has once race over the track and a respectable 2nd in his first lawn try #8-Seems to fit the mile distance and gets prado ( a change from Samyn). 3rd race back from a 300 day break coupled with an easy striding workout leaves risky agenda with an excellent chance #9-Pletcher fave is a stone cold closer and will need a quick pace to close into. Last race was quite a dissapointment. Horse just always seems to come up a few steps short. Must use underneath as she''ll be running late, but I'll let her beat me in tri's and exactas. Race 3 #4 My likely single in the pick 4. Has had a bit of seconditis this year(4 races 4 seconds, 1 by dq. But digging deeper, we find that he was beaten by invasor( nothing wrong with that) Corinthian( who is having a solid year winning the met mile last out) and flashy bull on preakness day in what was by far bull's best run. The logical 2nd choice is the 1 who hesanoldsalt has beaten twice this year already and is getting 3 pounds. #1 Likely second choice, won last out over a weak field. Solid fig wise but i believe a step below the 4. #5 Will be running late and if the pace is contested could quite conceivably run 2nd Race 4 (One of the harder races in my opinion #9 In what seems like a well contested pace, he has the best shot as he should be sitting just off of the leaders. Corny and kimmel always seem to hit at a high percentage. Great last race. #7 Offering some serious value here. His last race was pace aided, but his move to win was absolutely stunning. His figs don't match up with the top several, but with the pace setup that should be close to his first race, a seasoning race under his belt, plus m/l odds of 20/1 or better, its big include in the multi-race tickets and all spots in the tri with emphasis on the bottom 2 #3 Gorham's entry has shown two nearly identical races and a brilliant work last out. Seems absolutely locked and loaded. My only worry is the pressure he might face up front. Race 5 #7 Clemente and gogo pairing is always a plus. Great work last and race last out. Third back after a nice layoff.The pace should be steady giving her something to close into. #8 Horse will be much closer to the pace and if there is a lack of pace, criminologist will have the first run. #4 Same set of reasoning as the 8 but at lesser odds. Has been running in nice company, however i think she needs a clear lead to win. Note I will include the 11 in multi-race tickets, but the late post and last work i dont like. Race 6 #5 Towers over the field. If he runs his race, no one will be within 3 lengths. Shows nice spacing of races. Only worry is keyed entry gunning for the front. #1 If the pace becomes suicidal between keyed entry and and boronaro, suave will get first run at boro. Not sure this is likely to happen, but i guess anything is possible. Race 7 Cant seperate two horse. 2 and 6. My typhoon is as steady as she comes. Will be sitting off of wait awhile. Either wait a while will set soft fractions and hold off my typhoon coming for home or my typhoon will get some pace pressure help and will go by late. Either way I'm skipping this race as it offers zero value for me. Race 8 Will be using a good deal of horses here for the start of the pick 4 #5 Should be an insane pace. if sports town can stay out of the early scrum. he will have first run at 3 or 4 pace horses that will be tiring quickly. Gogo picked up the ride last out and won an small stakes race. #'s 2-3-4 All pace horses and any could hold on to win. Stormello is my favorite from the bunch #8 Lightly raced compared to some others. Figs arent totally up there with the top tier, but im predicting a pace breakdown and if that happens, he has a serious shot Race 9 #1 is my single in the late pick 4. She looks to be very tough against these. A pairing of her last race will lead to another open length victory. #3 If for some reason dream doesn't fire, christmas kid is the winner. Ran very well in the ashland. Just think she is a step or two behind dream. Race 10 #2 Like everyone else, wondering what dubia took out of EC. If he can return to form, he should handle these if not.... #7 Although missing shake the bank, btn will be using red zipper to hopefully close into. If a solid pace is set and ec doesn't fire, this is your most likely winner. #8 cosmonaut. Will be closer to the pace and if none developes will most likely be the winner, again assuming EC doesnt fire. This just doesn't seem likely to happen. Race 11 I have to single curlin, None of these horses are even close. Even with a slight regression, he wins easily. I'm not impressed at all with rags. She's a nice filly, but no where near where curlin is. I just don't think he regresses. Hope this helps someone with their picks. I also planned on fast and firm so if that doesn't happen, throw these out and good luck. Good luck everyone
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Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#3
06-09-2007, 01:16 AM
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I am not going to post my plays because I have done that for the last three days and got a bunch of losing tickets to show for it, but I will say that I am a fan of Criminalogist, but I like a horse in the 2nd quite a bit that is first time good trainer, let you guys play around with who that is. 
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#4
06-09-2007, 06:17 AM
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#5
06-09-2007, 07:23 AM
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Guaranteeed P4 / P6
Logical singles in the first 2 legs of the P6 make this bet the same price for me - I'll take my chances that Bordonaro and Wait a While get it done and take the trickier route hoping that most will chase the P4
True North: 5 Bordonaro Just a Game: 5 Wait a While Woody Stevens: 2 Deadly Dealer 5 Sports Town scratched 6 Most Distinguished 8 Street Magician Acorn: 1 Dream Rush 3 Chrismas Kid Manhattan: 2 English Channel 7 Better Talk Now 8 Cosmonaut Belmont: 3 Curlin 6 Hard Spun 7 Rags to Riches 1x1x3x2x3x3 = 54 bets x2 = 108 bucks Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 06-09-2007 at 12:12 PM.
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#6
06-09-2007, 07:49 AM
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#7
06-09-2007, 07:52 AM
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Linear Mode
