Betting the Preakness

DogsUp · #1 05-16-2008, 09:45 AM

Like some posters, I also believe that something is amiss with Big Brown for the Preakness. The connections do not feel as confident this week as they did two weeks ago. If this is the case, what bet do you make if you leave Big Brown out of the winner's spot? I am finding this race difficult to handicap when I leave Big Brown out of the picture. I already have my bet which includes Big Brown in the winner's spot (just in case my gut is wrong). However, can anyone give an opinion on how this race shapes up if Big Brown doesn't run his race?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #2 05-16-2008, 09:48 AM

just because dutrow is tuning it down does not mean he wont steam roll these....hes gonna win pretty easy.......now the belmont may be diffrent

Scav · #3 05-16-2008, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsUp

Like some posters, I also believe that something is amiss with Big Brown for the Preakness. The connections do not feel as confident this week as they did two weeks ago. If this is the case, what bet do you make if you leave Big Brown out of the winner's spot? I am finding this race difficult to handicap when I leave Big Brown out of the picture. I already have my bet which includes Big Brown in the winner's spot (just in case my gut is wrong). However, can anyone give an opinion on how this race shapes up if Big Brown doesn't run his race?

It is of my opinion he either wins the race, or runs off the board.....Kentucky Bear is probably the best value if you are trying to beat Big Brown. Gayego, Hey Byrn and even a little Stevil are possible

slotdirt · #4 05-16-2008, 09:48 AM

The only thing that is giving me any kind of pause with Big Brown and the Preakness is the fact that the horse has done virtually zero training between the Derby and now. Granted, I'm not an expert here, but I have to think there must be some kind of concern in this regard. According to the Baltimore Sun, the horse's workout was cancelled against this morning because of some moisture.

slotdirt · #5 05-16-2008, 09:49 AM

I'm kind of big on Giant Moon to run a decent race. Kentucky Bear and Hey Byrn also deserve a look.

DogsUp · #6 05-16-2008, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

just because dutrow is tuning it down does not mean he wont steam roll these....hes gonna win pretty easy.......now the belmont my be diffrent

Good job answering the question.

philcski · #7 05-16-2008, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

just because dutrow is tuning it down does not mean he wont steam roll these....hes gonna win pretty easy.......now the belmont my be diffrent

I agree with you.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #8 05-16-2008, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsUp

Good job answering the question.

sorry ,id key him on top.. its not sexy but the reality is these horses are worse than the derby bunch

DogsUp · #9 05-16-2008, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm kind of big on Giant Moon to run a decent race. Kentucky Bear and Hey Byrn also deserve a look.

Hey Byrn I am off of. I do agree with Giant Moon since he looks like the only speed horse left after Big Brown. A horse I find very interesting is Riley Tucker. I wish I could see better works from him. Another I am leaning towards is Kentucky Bear (like you mentioned). His work on the 26th in encouraging. Icabad Crane and Macho again I am lukewarm on for right now.

DogsUp · #10 05-16-2008, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

sorry ,id key him on top.. its not sexy but the reality is these horses are worse than the derby bunch

100% agree with you on this field. This field looks like a field you would see for a Thursday feature at Belmont. Dutrow is working Big Brown the morning of the Preakness (at least I believe that is the plan) and who knows how Big Brown will handle that. Just imagine the payouts if Big Brown doesnt fill the 1st or 2nd spot.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #11 05-16-2008, 10:00 AM

i had that same dream derby day... it was a nightmare..

jms62 · #12 05-16-2008, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

It is of my opinion he either wins the race, or runs off the board.....Kentucky Bear is probably the best value if you are trying to beat Big Brown. Gayego, Hey Byrn and even a little Stevil are possible

I liked Gayego and Hey Byrn until they received the death sentence post positions... Not many win from that wide at Pimlico... I also liked Behindatthebar until he was scratched... I'll go 3 deep on top in my exotics, RacecarRhaposdy, Yankee Bravo and Big Brown.... I find it interesting that Big Brown is facing a field he should crush BUT the Wallstreet Gang is busting their ass to get a stud deal done BEFORE the Preakness when in my opinion Bieg Browns value will only GO UP with a Preakness Win....

Scav · #13 05-16-2008, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

I liked Gayego and Hey Byrn until they received the death sentence post positions... Not many win from that wide at Pimlico... I also liked Behindatthebar until he was scratched... I'll go 3 deep on top in my exotics, RacecarRhaposdy, Yankee Bravo and Big Brown.... I find it interesting that Big Brown is facing a field he should crush BUT the Wallstreet Gang is busting their ass to get a stud deal done BEFORE the Preakness when in my opinion Bieg Browns value will only GO UP with a Preakness Win....

What does a Preakness win get them as far as increasing a stud deal? Probably not much IMO, but I am far from an expert...

MisterB · #14 05-16-2008, 10:08 AM

I think Yankee Bravo makes a significant improvement after 6 weeks. His run in the LA Derby on dirt was pretty good. His numbers suck, but so does everyone else's except BB.

jms62 · #15 05-16-2008, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

What does a Preakness win get them as far as increasing a stud deal? Probably not much IMO, but I am far from an expert...

Sorry Scav but I respectfully disagree. It is basic economics of risk... I think we agree that his highest value would be as a Triple Crown winner... Whoever is buying in would be taking a lot less risk if he were 2/3 of the way there and it would be reflected in the price they pay... If the deal were done today, the buyers are assuming the risk that BB never wins another race so they basically will get a lightly raced derby winner with 3 lifetime wins and a history of physical issues... It would be interesting to see if the numbers are in the Smarty Jones territory. I think that would be a decent gauge as to the value of a Derby winner vs the value of a Derby/Preakness winner. These guys are cagey characters who eat Risk/Reward calculations for breakfast. Being competitors, they wouldn't give up a nickel if they thought they could get it...

Travis Stone · #16 05-16-2008, 10:23 AM

There's nothing wrong with dipping into the wallet for pure gambling and tossing BB.

I do find it interesting the confidence train has come to a screeching halt. But it's a new ball game now and they do have to run the race.

Travis Stone · #17 05-16-2008, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Sorry Scav but I respectfully disagree. It is basic economics of risk... I think we agree that his highest value would be as a Triple Crown winner... Whoever is buying in would be taking a lot less risk if he were 2/3 of the way there and it would be reflected in the price they pay... If the deal were done today, the buyers are assuming the risk that BB never wins another race so they basically will get a lightly raced derby winner with 3 lifetime wins and a history of physical issues... It would be interesting to see if the numbers are in the Smarty Jones territory. I think that would be a decent gauge as to the value of a Derby winner vs the value of a Derby/Preakness winner.

I can see both sides, but I feel like a Preakness win does not necessarily inflate the horse's value all that much. With a horse like BB, after his Derby performance, a Preakness victory is expected, so its not like he'll be going above and beyond what everyone expects on Saturday. Now a TC win, or a Belmont score, that's a different animal.

DogsUp · #18 05-16-2008, 10:50 AM

I am far from an expert on Stud purchases. In my opinion, BB has already won on turf, won the Florida Derby and KY Derby so I highly doubt that his value would go up just because of a victory in the Preakness. There has to be some sort of ceiling to his value even if he goes on to win the TC. And I can only guess that they buyers and sellers are already at that ceiling or extremely close to it.

Bobby Fischer · #19 05-16-2008, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsUp

Like some posters, I also believe that something is amiss with Big Brown for the Preakness. The connections do not feel as confident this week as they did two weeks ago. If this is the case, what bet do you make if you leave Big Brown out of the winner's spot? I am finding this race difficult to handicap when I leave Big Brown out of the picture. I already have my bet which includes Big Brown in the winner's spot (just in case my gut is wrong). However, can anyone give an opinion on how this race shapes up if Big Brown doesn't run his race?

If Big Brown doesn't run his race, he has a pretty good shot to win here. It really isn't a good horse to play against unless you know something others don't.

If something really goes completely wrong and he doesn't factor:

Hey Byrn = He isn't supposed to have the female pedigree stamina to be top class beyond about a mile and a sixteenth. His 9f GP and his 9.5Gp were PROBABLY products of having a slow pace. When you get that slow pace, the stamina matters less and it can hide poor stamina.
However he has talent. He did win that mile race with the good pace. The two best animals other than Brown are maybe Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear. Kentucky Bear would have to sustain a tough, long drive and is more one-paced. Byrn has done enough, that if he ran a huge race, it wouldn't completely shock you.

Stall Mucker · #20 05-17-2008, 07:30 AM

Kentucky Bear
Icabad Crane
Riley Tucker
Giant Moon