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#1
10-08-2009, 07:44 AM
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10/8: Belmont Park (1st-9th)
Not getting multi-play tickets built Wednesday may have been very costly with winners present in all legs of the Belmont P6/P4 sequences which generously paid $30k and $1k. But structure beat us as 4th choices Caminadora ($12) and Silenced ($25) were left off the simple plays to go with the 4 other top tabs who all won. Inclusions of those 4th/6th race winners in P3's were of some salvation with returns of $169 (4-6), $280 (5-7), $283 (6-8). Had potential to be really memorable, but good day overall and hope you did well!
A deliriously fun and challenging card at Belmont Thursday before Keeneland opens Friday. BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Cruisin'nthebridle 3-1 WON Next Best: #1a (POE) Siren Serenade 2-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Upper Gulch 8-1 5th Super Add: #2 (POE) Maid of Flowers 12-1 7th 2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Unbelievably intriguing race with some expensive horseflesh. Leaving $400k Baatesh and $1.2MM Lambeau Legend out of selections but either could improve enough 2nd time out to contend. Consider protecting with backups in multi-race wagers. Most Likely: #3 Rule 3-1 WON Best Value: #4 Ice Box 12-1 4th Next Best: #5 Flexthegoldenpipes 5-2 5th Super Add: #2 Bank the Eight 5-1 2nd 3rd: Memories of Silver, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Another terrific event with superbly matched field of hard-knocking fillies and mares. Sense Merriwether Jessica may be in form cycle slip and prefer the other two (!) Rice runners today. Cross-out Them There Eyes' off turf and Yaddo, and note strong try in state bred Lottsa Talc behind open company Turf Amazon (PHA) stake winner Canadian Ballet.. Most Likely: #5 Karakorum Elektra 5-1 WON Best Value: #2 Them There Eyes 15-1 6th Next Best: #3 Mohegan Sky 3-1 2nd Super Add: #6 Stormy Relations 10-1 7th 4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) Outrageously wide open affair with Zapster in the 8-5 Pletcher entry utterly beatable.. Demand value.. Best Value: #6 Precipice Trail 8-1 4th Most Likely: #10 Montesquieu 3-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Ryvit 10-1 7th Exotics Use: #4 Hero's Empire 20-1 10th 5th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #4 Akonite 12-1 6th Most Likely: #6 Gracious Victory 9-2 2nd Next Best: #7 O'Sotopretty 3-1 WON Super Add: #9 Sister's Speed 7-2 3rd <$75 P4 Play: 2: 3-4-5 3: 5-7 4: 3-4-6-10 5: 4-6-7 3x2x4x3 = $72 6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) No less than 5 from 9/4 Spa set could go here if Serpe's Nurse Dolce were to get in. Question to answer is if any of them are that good, and who emerged from that race having distinguished themselves. Given that she was saddled with Studart, I Do That gave an excellent account of herself debuting a route and having to move through horses and up the rail late. 9-2 to start the bidding, and hope we get an even better number given we have to endure the Brazil nut again. Most Likely: #4 I Do That 9-2 3rd Best Value: #8 Faraway Cat 12-1 6th Next Best: #9 Mystic City 15-1 2nd Exotics Use: #3 Australis Princess 10-1 WON 7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD) Most Likely: #9 Sly 5-2 2nd Best Value: #10 Laudable 5-1 8th Next Best: #5 Prince Woodman 3-1 WON Exotics Use: #4 Dragon Fi 7-2 3rd 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Brother Nick 5-1 5th Most Likely: #6 Even Raise 5-2 6th Next Best: #4 Ea 2-1 WON Super Add: #1 Retriever 6-1 2nd 9th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super) Best Value: #4 McGlamery Road 5-1 2nd Most Likely: #1 Trusting Heart 3-1 Next Best: #7 Geno Green 7-2 WON Super Add: #8 Volos 9-2 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 3-4-5-7-8-9 7: 9 8: 1-2-4-6 9: 1-4-7 6x1x4x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-08-2009 at 04:23 PM. 
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#2
10-08-2009, 09:14 AM
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SB,
I assume you not using Diza in the opener is a reflection of Mott's FTS low win %. I'm not real keen on her missing the whole month of June, but being half to Cetewayo and Dynaforce, I will be interested to see what kind of account she makes for herself today on the turf. Gonna be using She's A Ketch in the early double. Her debut was a little better than the running line suggest and she should be a nice price to boot. Good luck today 
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#4
10-08-2009, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Yeah... And there are a bunch of gaps in her work-up besides June too. I just get the feeling she will take one or more to get there. But note that Mott's numbers are BETTER than the basic PP's indicate under these conditions if you do the Formulator work.. FTS, 3+, >1m, he's more in the 12% win arena with a $2.00+ ROI. G/L!!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
10-08-2009, 10:00 AM
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Her saving grace is that she goes out of her way to minimize ground loss.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
10-08-2009, 10:06 AM
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And no race demonstrates that more than her ride on I Do That. Anyone that can defend that sh*t is either blind or getting a piece of it 
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#9
10-08-2009, 10:07 AM
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Maybe she'll go back to Brazil for the Special Olympics.
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#10
10-08-2009, 10:12 AM
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1ST
1 (poe) Pardon Early 2B Singing My Song Early 5 She's a Ketch Early 10 Qualia Early 2ND 1 Baatesh Early 3RD 10 J Z Warrior Early 4TH 1X Trippo Early 5 Mint Maker Early 5TH 8 Read the Post Early 6TH 1A Nurse Dolce Early 1X Rogue's Jewel Early 2 Eager Leader Early 2B In Te Domine Early 11 Our Lady Liberty Early 7TH 1 (poe) French Transition Early 2 Check It Twice Early 2B Cliff Meadows Early 11 Golden Guska Early 12 Chief Export Early 13 Strummer Early 9TH 6 Wanda's Double Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
10-08-2009, 10:14 AM
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NOTE that #10 MONTESQUIEU draws into the 4th...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
10-08-2009, 10:15 AM
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I want to play this early Pick 3, but I have no idea in the 3rd.
3 horses sprinting this distance on turf for the first time. Another 3 of them have only done it once. Tar Heel Mom is first time turf. Stormy Relations and Them There Eyes both look very dangerous on the cut back. Meriweather Jessica looks like a play against at a short price. Suzee Sunrise shows :21 and :43 speed... I'm so confused 
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#15
10-08-2009, 10:18 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#17
10-08-2009, 10:34 AM
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Quote:
But that's what we all love about you... half pint.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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