BC Individual race thoughts (Day 1)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Marathon: I think Nite Light is the best hope of the Americans. Of the 4 Euro's ... I know why Muhannak is here this time - because he won last year. So, I don't want him. I know why Man Of Iron is here ... breeding. I don't want him. That leaves Father Time and Mastery ... and I will most favor the bigger price of the two.


Juv Fillies Turf: Need to do a lot more work on that. Would need to see post positions and who goes where to have a better idea.


Filly and Mare Sprint: I have no interest in trying to beat Ventura.


Juv Fillies: in her debut, Connie and Michael ran the outright fastest Beyer ever recorded by a 2yo filly on any synthetic race track.

Her 95 is a mere 12 points faster than Baroness Thatcher for fastest at 7fs by a 2yo filly in the history of KEE synthetic. Rachel Alexandra ran the 2nd fastest 6f Kee Beyer ever recorded by a 2yo filly when she ran an eye-popping 82 there. Not even close to C&M and that wasn't her debut either.

From a speed figure standpoint, C&M's debut is in select company. Discreet Cat, Big Brown, Quality Road, Plagiarist, and arguably Ghostzapper are the only five 2yo's from this decade who's debuts compare with hers.

Since 2003, trainer Ken McPeek is just 24-for-241 ($1.44 ROI) with debuters in sprint races. Over that same time, he's an amazing 34-for-140 ($2.66 ROI) with 2nd time starters in a route.

You're getting real talent with C&M ... and the naked stats say she should improve bigtime off that debut. However, a cross country ship on short rest and a stretchout are both extremely disconcerting.

I have a hard time splitting the rest of the field ... as most of them look solid but not spectacular .. compared with C&M who looks spectacular but not solid. This is the kind of race that draws out a bettors creativity.


Filly and Mare Turf: Forever Together is the best American hope ... but Dar Re Mi is all me.


Distaff: Life Is Sweet has been the victim of slow paces in ugly recent performances. She was also a distant 3rd against the grain in the Hollywood Gold Cup in a race where the top two horses dominated from the front end.

She won her first three attempts over Santa Anita's pro-ride nicely when things weren't stacked against her.