1/9: Gulfstream (4th-10th); Santa Anita ($75k C/O)

Kasept · #1 01-09-2010, 07:49 AM

Missed nice P4 of nearly $1,000 when unconvinced of merits of 17-1 Bobby Ribaudo nightcap winner Watch Smartly. Elvis Trujillo left the late-arriving but rather obviously best Proud Osceola with too much to do, while Carlos Marquez Jr. had Watch Smartly forwardly well-placed and got first jump off the turn.

Focus of first full Saturday of winter action includes a nice sprint stakes card at Gulfstream that unfortunately appears certain to have to deal with steady rain and cold, and a $75k carryover skein at Santa Anita and $40k Super High 5 C/O in the 9th.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cravin Caden 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #7 Systemic Risk 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Desert Lord 5-1 2nd

5th: 28th Spectacular Bid, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Quality involved here has potential to do enough the rest of the year to earn this listed event a grading.. Am perplexed over employment of #3 Wildcat Frankie (7-2) whose outrageous debut leaves him highly susceptible to regression, though wet strip could be a delight for him with Wildcat Heir progeny winning at an eye-popping 32.4% over off-going..

Best Value: #7 Grand Times 4-1 7th
Most Likely: #2 Discreetly Mine 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Westover Wildcat 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Wildcat Frankie 7-2 2nd

6th: 28th Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very deep and tricky group with the potentially wet surface a difficult addition to an already tough equation.. May cover 5-2 ML fave #8 Thunders Dove (spotty worktab for return) and 2nd choice #1 Bold Union (spotting weight to field) in multis but want prices within race..

Best Value: #2 D'Wild Ride 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Tar Heel Mom 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Pretty Prolific 8-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Saratoga Tango 20-1 7th

7th: 55th Mr. Prospector (G3), 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note that very sloppy conditions would find Pletcher scratching Munnings from the proceedings..

Most Likely: #2 Custom for Carlos 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Presto Change O 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 SCR
Super Add: #8 Starforaday 8-1 4th

8th: 1st GP Turf Sprint, 4+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Weather issue threatens this inaugural lawn dash which then totally complicates the P4 plays..

Most Likely: #8 Hockeythehayman 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Little Nick 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hatfield 8-1 WON
Super Add: #6 T. D. Vance 3-1

9th: 29th Old Hat (G3), 3yo, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cuff Me 3-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Carphonic 4-1 11th
Best Value: #6 Dances With Ashley 6-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Malibu Legacy 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

For now, let's assume we get the rain and the turf sprint stays on the grass..

6: 2-3-4-6-8-9
7: 2-4-8-9
8: 8
9: 5-6-7-9-10-11

6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-CAME OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #4 Blushing Dixie 5-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-8-9
8: 4-5-8
9: 5-6-11
10: 2-3-8/SCR 4

4x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Stylin Deputy 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Blue Tambourine 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 It's Partytime 3-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Heavy Kitty 6-1 9th

5th: CLM, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Spot the Diplomat 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Self Insured 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Stand Tall 8-5 7th

6th: 9 Paseana H., F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 St. Trinians 7-2 WON
Best Value: #6 My Baby Baby 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Floating Heart 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 You Lift Me Up 9-2

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Locksley Hall 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 El Mirage King 12-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Kuro 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Mister Do It 3-1 3rd

8th: 73rd San Pasqual H. (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Nownownow 9-2 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Furthest Land 8-5 7th
Next Best: #1 Cherokee Artist 9-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Neko Bay 3-1 WON

9th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Swiss Ski 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #4 Stormy Game 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Turkish Victory 3-1 WON
High 5 Play: #8 Little Bro 30-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-8-9
5: 2
6: 6-7
7: 1
8: 1-3-7
9: 1-4-7/SCR-11

4x1x2x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-7-9
7: 1-2
8: 1-3-7
9: 1-4-7/SCR-11

3x2x3x3 = $54

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 01-09-2010, 10:06 AM

GP SCR/CHG'S

Race: 4 Changes Time Posted
#1 Key to the Empire No longer a Coupled Entry 10:14 AM ET
#1A Morethanatale Scratched - Trainer 10:14 AM ET
#3 Marching Tune Scratched - Trainer 10:14 AM ET

Race: 5 Changes Time Posted
#6 Barry's Money Scratched - Trainer 10:14 AM ET

Race: 7 Changes Time Posted
#3 Prince Joshua Scratched - Trainer 10:14 AM ET
#5 Gentleman James Scratched - Trainer 10:14 AM ET

Race: 10 Changes Time Posted
#1 Rosie's Princess No longer a Coupled Entry 10:14 AM ET
#1A Ocean Harmony Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:14 AM ET
#6 Lady Loushe Scratched - Trainer 10:44 AM ET
#13 Kanasdatsi Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:14 AM ET
#14 Krista's Quik Chic Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:14 AM ET

Kasept · #3 01-09-2010, 10:09 AM

GP TRACK CONDITION REPORT

Track Conditions as of Jan 9:

Visual Track Condition: Sealed

Rated Track Condition: Good

Turf: Yielding All Races on the Turf Course moved to 72 Ft.

Weather Conditions: Rain Showers

Rootdog1 · #4 01-09-2010, 11:20 AM

As I cap the carryover, finding a few bombs......like your call on Lil Bro in the nite cap...brutal trip last time and if we can get 30-1 it would be a belated christmas present. Also one in there that is a value play is Saint Chocolate at 12-1. With a super high5 carryover, might be worth attacking.

Others....7th, Fyvio at 30-1 and 4th, #6 Dame Camille at 8-1

I think it pays well today. Appears ticket structure will be important!!

Kasept · #5 01-09-2010, 12:34 PM

Am out and about for the afternoon but see that the inevitable 'sloppy' has arrived at GP...

docicu3 · #6 01-09-2010, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Am out and about for the afternoon but see that the inevitable 'sloppy' has arrived at GP...

Which could also describe the effort by Garcia in the 4th.....talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!!

Kasept · #7 01-09-2010, 05:38 PM

Remember that there is a $40k Super High 5 carryover in the SA 9th today...