9/2: Saratoga (Day 36-$100k P6 Guarantee)

[Kasept]

Enormous payout of $377k on Saratoga double carryover certainly was earned by the 4 successful tickets which included the Twin Spires Players' Pool group. Sequence proved as tricky as it seemed with only one favorite coming through (Peat Bay in the opening leg 5th) ahead of winners from all over the board at mutuels of $8.60, $10.60, $9.70, $21.40 and $16.80. None were utterly impossible, though 7-1 Slick Wheelie in the nightcap had been away an eternity which featured stem cell replacement therapy on an injury suspensory! My opinion wasn't close on the multis, but I managed one sizable hit in the P. G. Johnson where 'Best Value' second choice Fancy Point became a universal good thing bet down to 7-2, and zipped home in front of the other three tabs for a $700 tri abnd $2,800 super. Hope you did OK!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/C, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Lead Us Not 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Riddle 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Fisher entry 6-1 4th/8th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Ward entry 7-2 9th/10th
Best Value: #7 All for Peace 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Wildcat Stevie 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Trippi's Tiger 6-1 5th


3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Wall of Worry 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Healthy Debate 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Exotics Use: #3 Sudden Silver 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Lorraine in Spain 8-1 6th


4th: Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 House of Grace 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 In Te Domine 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Senada 4-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Snow Top Mountain 7-2 2nd


5th: MSW-NY, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$100k Guaranteed P6 Starts Here..

Most Likely: #5 Aptphilly 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Adriatic Pearls 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 SCR
Super Add: #3 English Ivy 6-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-7
3: 3-6-7
4: 2-3-6-9
5: 4-5-8

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Tune 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Dyani 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Muhaawara 4-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Emerald Beach 8-1 3rd


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Watch board for clues on how live #4 Modest is..

Most Likely #9 Technique 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Best Value: #5 Plainview 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Modest 3-1 9th
Super Add: #1 It's Truly Ahvee 5-1 3rd


8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Platinumplus 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Shehashighhopes 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 No Rhyme Or Reason 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Lovely Promise 6-1 5th


9th: Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Queen of the Creek 5-1 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #6 Doe Run 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Kittylicious 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Ultimate Class 20-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $105.00
$1 Trifecta (7-3-8) Paid $1,193.00
$1 Superfecta (7-3-8-6) Paid $5,397.50


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Theresmyeverything 2-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #1 Mazara Del Vallo 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Freud's Debut 8-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Haya's Boy 15-1 8th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5-8
6: 3-4-7
7: 1-4-5-9
8: 3-5
9: 7
10: 1-3

2x3x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-9
8: 3-5
9: 6-7
10: 1-2-3

4x2x2x3 = $48 $1 P4 (9-3/6-7-3/7/12/13) Paid $106.25


Good luck!
Steve

[GPK]

English Ivy might be ok and should appreciate the grass. Her damn is half to Magical Fantasy.

[Clip-Clop]

No love for Tidal Pool? D. Wayne or something else?

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

No love for Tidal Pool? D. Wayne or something else?

Now granted Lukas is having a tough meet and he's not what he once was, but that division is clearly the weaker of the two, and I don't think the favorites are much. Awesome Maria has to be played against off the layoff and on the grass, Senada just isn't that good, and House of Grace is extremely overrated as well and isn't really much. Snow Top Mountain is ok, but she seems to need a total collapse to get the job done. I think Neenie's House is interesting if she draws in off the AE list off a nice win last time at Monmouth, and I will say one thing about Tidal Pool although she's off form badly, is that her lone turf race as a 2YO was pretty good getting a 78 figure as a 2YO on the grass ain't bad, and not finishing far behind a very good graded stakes horse in Check the Label in that turf race at Churchill so if she handles the grass, she could jump up at a price. Think those are two main dangers to Snow Top Mountain, and if Awesome Maria, Senada, or House of Grace win I will lose.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

No love for Tidal Pool? D. Wayne or something else?

Can't like. Dirt horse first and foremost and Maragh has been losing ground on every ride. Would rather get a horse like Dattt Echo in the mix at a bonus mutuel with the most likely performers..

Good luck! Don't let me talk you off Tidal Pool. She's a nice filly but I just don't see her in this spot.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Now granted Lukas is having a tough meet and he's not what he once was, but that division is clearly the weaker of the two, and I don't think the favorites are much. Awesome Maria has to be played against off the layoff and on the grass, Senada just isn't that good, and House of Grace is extremely overrated as well and isn't really much. Snow Top Mountain is ok, but she seems to need a total collapse to get the job done. I think Neenie's House is interesting if she draws in off the AE list off a nice win last time at Monmouth, and I will say one thing about Tidal Pool although she's off form badly, is that her lone turf race as a 2YO was pretty good getting a 78 figure as a 2YO on the grass ain't bad, and not finishing far behind a very good graded stakes horse in Check the Label in that turf race at Churchill so if she handles the grass, she could jump up at a price. Think those are two main dangers to Snow Top Mountain, and if Awesome Maria, Senada, or House of Grace win I will lose.

Tough race indeed...should have started the PK-6 with this one! I thought the turf might help her chances.

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Can't like. Dirt horse first and foremost and Maragh has been losing ground on every ride. Would rather get a horse like Dattt Echo in the mix at a bonus mutuel with the most likely performers..

Good luck! Don't let me talk you off Tidal Pool. She's a nice filly but I just don't see her in this spot.

SB, what about Lisa's Booby Trap? Just playing against in her turf debut?

[Dahoss]

In the 1st division Senada feels like a horse that will run much better with the addition of blinkers and she's due a decent trip off of her last three. I expect her to be either 1st or 2nd. I do think Silver La Belle is a little interesting, at least underneath as she is a half to Silverfoot who won over 900k on grass.

In the 2nd division you have to play against Lisa's Booby Trap, don't you? Nice story and neat horse, but she has all of the makings of a giant underlay. I'm using Sea Road, Kittylicious and the Italian filly Marseria. She's a mystery, but I respect Toner too much to leave her out.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

In the 1st division Senada feels like a horse that will run much better with the addition of blinkers and she's due a decent trip off of her last three. I expect her to be either 1st or 2nd. I do think Silver La Belle is a little interesting, at least underneath as she is a half to Silverfoot who won over 900k on grass.

In the 2nd division you have to play against Lisa's Booby Trap, don't you? Nice story and neat horse, but she has all of the makings of a giant underlay. I'm using Sea Road, Kittylicious and the Italian filly Marseria. She's a mystery, but I respect Toner too much to leave her out.

Seneda feels like a total trap to me. A horse they have been waiting for to get good and it likley will never happen. She is 1/7 and clearly has some hang in her. The only positive I see is Javier, and thats not enough. Im not sure the blinkers are going to help her at all. We will see. I think the 6 has a lot more left to give and is worth a play at a decent price for Linda. When I put my pick 4's in I will likely use 4,5 horses and Seneda is not one of them.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

In the 1st division Senada feels like a horse that will run much better with the addition of blinkers and she's due a decent trip off of her last three. I expect her to be either 1st or 2nd. I do think Silver La Belle is a little interesting, at least underneath as she is a half to Silverfoot who won over 900k on grass.

In the 2nd division you have to play against Lisa's Booby Trap, don't you? Nice story and neat horse, but she has all of the makings of a giant underlay. I'm using Sea Road, Kittylicious and the Italian filly Marseria. She's a mystery, but I respect Toner too much to leave her out.

I know Kimmel is having an awful meet, but if you're playing against Lisa's Booby Trap, why wouldn't you use Khancord Kid? Will be fitter coming in 2nd off and has a touch more back class than the others. Could get overlooked as well.

[dagolfer33]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I could care less about your fake plays and your opinion.

It's not fake plays, it's reverses. Get it right.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by GPK

I know Kimmel is having an awful meet, but if you're playing against Lisa's Booby Trap, why wouldn't you use Khancord Kid? Will be fitter coming in 2nd off and has a touch more back class than the others. Could get overlooked as well.

She can win, but like you said, Kimmel has been so bad it's tough to like his horses. Like you said, she might get overlooked and has been running against better. But she had a pretty sweet trip last time and was somewhat empty late.

She has as good a shot as any though.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

She can win, but like you said, Kimmel has been so bad it's tough to like his horses. Like you said, she might get overlooked and has been running against better. But she had a pretty sweet trip last time and was somewhat empty late.

She has as good a shot as any though.

Against much tougher than these, don't you think?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by GPK

Against much tougher than these, don't you think?

Without a doubt. The problem for me is I think they are all pretty fairly matched and I'd rather not use a horse whose trainer is so cold.

It's a fascinating race though and I can see a case being made for 6 or 7 horses. Good luck today.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Without a doubt. The problem for me is I think they are all pretty fairly matched and I'd rather not use a horse whose trainer is so cold.

It's a fascinating race though and I can see a case being made for 6 or 7 horses. Good luck today.

Good luck to you too. I'd like to play the late 4, but I suck at MSW 2yo dirt sprints, so I would clearly have to use the all button in the 7th.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by GPK

Good luck to you too. I'd like to play the late 4, but I suck at MSW 2yo dirt sprints, so I would clearly have to use the all button in the 7th.

That race might make the pick 4 unplayable for me. I'm a little interested in Scoville, but I wouldn't be surprised if any of the horses won.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

That race might make the pick 4 unplayable for me. I'm a little interested in Scoville, but I wouldn't be surprised if any of the horses won.

Is the Rice a play against in the last?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by GPK

Is the Rice a play against in the last?

I don't think so. I'm using both of her horses and Mazaro Del Vallo a little.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't think so. I'm using both of her horses and Mazaro Del Vallo a little.

Thats the only other one in there I like.