10/10: Belmont (8th-9th); Santa Anita (3rd-9th)

Kasept · #1 10-10-2011, 08:31 AM

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Turn Up the Music and Petey Cramer are VERY beatable top ML choices. Hooligan's Delight prime here with next pair. Suggest DD play into Pebbles to Elusive Pearl (heavier), My Redbyrd (lighter)..

Most Likely: #9 HOOLIGAN'S DELIGHT 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Barrel of Love 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Wee Freudian 5-1 WON ($10.60)

$1 Exacta (3-9) Paid $28.50
$1 Trifecta (3-9-4) Paid $87.00

9th: 19th Pebbles, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Elusive Pearl 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #7 My Redbyrd 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Ruthenia 7-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Divalarious 6-1 4th

$1 Double (3-5) Paid $17.60

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: 37th Jack Goodman, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

#5 Sweet Swap a full brother to Sidney's Candy, but wouldn't expect same brilliance quite yet based on mixed reviews of morning machinations..

Most Likely: #4 Secret Circle 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #1 Galex 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Sweet Swap 9-5 5th
Super Add: #6 Scallion 8-1 6th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Mending Wall 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Special Charm 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Hannah G 10-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Cascina 3-1 10th

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Brutally tough set..

Most Likely: #2 Lisa Lulu 8-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Indiara 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Nothing to Fear 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Lutess 6-1 10th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Fifth Dimension 6-1 WON ($17.20)
Next Best: #7 Nahem 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Memen 6-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Every Ego 8-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 TEDDY'S PROMISE 8-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #3 Include Me Out 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Zenidekka 6-1 9th
Super Add: #12 Brazilian Charm 12-1 12th

8th: 38th Morvich (G3), 3+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Camp Victory 6-5 5th
Best Value: #4 El Gato Malo 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Excessive Passion 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 California Flag 6-1 WON ($15.40)

9th: CA-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Tropiluk 9-2 9th
Next Best: #2 Got Even 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #11 Go to the Pulpit 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Mustache Charlie 10-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Warren's Marshall 12-1 8th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-5
5: 1-2-5-9
6: 1
7: 11
8: 4-7
9: 2-8

3x4x1x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-7
7: 1-3-11
8: 3-4-6-7
9: 2-5-7-8-11

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/11/6/2,12,13) Paid $906.65

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 10-10-2011, 10:16 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

MaTH716 · #3 10-10-2011, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

6th: CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Fifth Dimension 6-1
Next Best: #7 Nahem 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Memen 6-1
Super Add: #4 Every Ego 8-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-4-5
5: 1-2-5-9
6: 1
7: 11
8: 4-7
9: 2-8

3x4x1x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

Steve, Just a question on what your thinking is around the single in the pick 6? That race seems extremely wide open, what is it about the 1 that makes him a logical single for you?

Rootdog1 · #4 10-10-2011, 12:55 PM

Steve - Any specifics on Sweet Swap? thanks

Kasept · #5 10-10-2011, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Steve, Just a question on what your thinking is around the single in the pick 6? That race seems extremely wide open, what is it about the 1 that makes him a logical single for you?

When certain races -- turf sprints; cheap claimers -- appear wide open to me in P6 sequences, my thinking is to try to go as narrow as possible -- ideally single -- on a simple, main ("caveman") ticket. Find an angle on a horse that projects them in your mind's eye as a winner and go with it. If it's that wide open due to formlessness or chaos potential, you'll need to spend more than you likely care to covering all the possibilities... Better to my way of thinking to save spreads for races where form is creating the competitiveness or where you want to include live longshot(s) with logical(s).

Kasept · #6 10-10-2011, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Steve - Any specifics on Sweet Swap? thanks

Just the National Turf observation of last work..

SWEET SWAP (Oct 3-SA 6-1:12.1 H M FT B: Bit odd as this one just gives better and better under ask in 47.0, 112.1. Like a bicycle; you stop pedaling he stops running.---Grade: B

Rootdog1 · #7 10-10-2011, 01:35 PM

Thanks. I had heard the #1 was working lights out in that race..and trying to decide on that one or Sweet Swap.

Kasept · #8 10-10-2011, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Thanks. I had heard the #1 was working lights out in that race..and trying to decide on that one or Sweet Swap.

GALEX Strong while waiting a bit on an older barnmate, reaching under wraps in 49.0, 112.3. Seems better than So Cal debut.---Grade: B

MaTH716 · #9 10-10-2011, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

When certain races -- turf sprints; cheap claimers -- appear wide open to me in P6 sequences, my thinking is to try to go as narrow as possible -- ideally single -- on a simple, main ("caveman") ticket. Find an angle on a horse that projects them in your mind's eye as a winner and go with it. If it's that wide open due to formlessness or chaos potential, you'll need to spend more than you likely care to covering all the possibilities... Better to my way of thinking to save spreads for races where form is creating the competitiveness or where you want to include live longshot(s) with logical(s).

Fair enough Steve as far as the strategy goes, but if you don't mind what made you land on the 1?
I'm just trying to understand what other players might see sometimes that I might be missing with my own handicapping.

Kasept · #10 10-10-2011, 01:51 PM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis

Kasept · #11 10-10-2011, 02:17 PM

SA SCR/CHG'S

pointman · #12 10-10-2011, 06:17 PM

Nice call on the Santa Anita 6th and 7th Steve!

Get that pk4 home!

ADJMK · #13 10-10-2011, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

When certain races -- turf sprints; cheap claimers -- appear wide open to me in P6 sequences, my thinking is to try to go as narrow as possible -- ideally single -- on a simple, main ("caveman") ticket. Find an angle on a horse that projects them in your mind's eye as a winner and go with it. If it's that wide open due to formlessness or chaos potential, you'll need to spend more than you likely care to covering all the possibilities... Better to my way of thinking to save spreads for races where form is creating the competitiveness or where you want to include live longshot(s) with logical(s).

I agree with you Steve and do the same thing. The frustrating part is that you basically spent $96 that could have been win money at 8-1. At least you were out after the first leg so you did't have to let the ticket ride and could bet additional money. My normal is get the single home at a price in the first leg and then watch a 3/4 and get nothing back. You need enough capital to bet the multi's as well as the win. Multi's are great when you hit but in the longrun sometimes I wonder? Just look at how many near misses you have had lately.

atolunch · #14 10-10-2011, 06:56 PM

Bring this one home Steve!!

docicu3 · #15 10-10-2011, 06:57 PM

Just look at how many near misses you have had lately.[/quote]

Easy now....

The guy is hotter than a nuclear reactor most meets on either side of the country. All of us are still learning this game.

Sometimes putting out tickets for the board doesn't allow him to invest as he might want to otherwise. The tickets wouldn't be playable for a lot of folks who are new here..... Part of the success in the game is playing within a budget.

ADJMK · #16 10-10-2011, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

Just look at how many near misses you have had lately.

Easy now....

The guy is hotter than a nuclear reactor most meets on either side of the country. All of us are still learning this game.

Sometimes putting out tickets for the board doesn't allow him to invest as he might want to otherwise. The tickets wouldn't be playable for a lot of folks who are new here..... Part of the success in the game is playing within a budget.[/quote]

Far from knocking Steve. Cheering for him to cash this P4.
Just saying how frustrating it can be to be right on a price horse and not be able to cash on the multi. Just a question with a limited bankroll are you better off not betting the multi. Of course that will be the time it comes in.

lazytom · #17 10-10-2011, 07:09 PM

steve- wishing you the best- lots of $ to be made

#18 10-10-2011, 07:18 PM

#19 10-10-2011, 07:20 PM

nice re-rally

lazytom · #20 10-10-2011, 07:23 PM

yessss- congrats