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#1
08-07-2014, 11:25 PM
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Saratoga Friday Aug. 8 Analysis
EDIT: Scratches really wreaking havoc on my selections lately...with the lower cost of most of my plays, I've added an extra horse to R3 in the early P4. I feel there is much more value in that sequence and it is worth boosting that play rather than replace my scratched runners later on.
Race 2: Motion holds the cards here with two, of which #5 Potthast appears to be the better runner. Scat Daddy’s have done well young and on the turf, and his dam’s sire has stood in both Chile and Italy so there is some turf potential there as well. The one to beat. #2 Hillbilly Style is my longshot play in this event. Lukas has done extremely well by his standards with babies this season and this one’s pedigree spells nothing but turf. Some quick breezes in the bag and if they can translate to race day he will be dangerous. Is only a May foal, so will need to take a look at him on the track. The less heralded Motion contender is #4 Easy Comparison. He’s in with a shot and I’ll use him, but I’m less convinced than I am with the other runner. #3 Vision Perfect has a sprint pedigree and can clunk up into the exotics. I'm not enthralled by either of the Ward fillies (though I prefer #1 over #1A), #7 will have no questions about the surface but will want much more ground, and #9 would need to completely ignore his pedigree to take to the turf. $1 Tri 2, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/ALL $24 Race 4: This is a tough, tough baby event that could go in almost any direction. I’m taking #2 Magnificent Margo. She’s bred to sprint and does have a little bit of turf pedigree. Maker is off to a good start at the meet and, judging by her times in the morning, if she handles the surface she’ll be gone. #1 Co had a good workout a few days ago on the turf which suggests she can possibly outrun her pedigree. Although she’s a May foal, it’s always dangerous to ignore McGaughey and Rosario. I’m interested to see how Donk’s runner in the 2nd fares as it appears that #9 Birkenhead had outworked him on an occasion or two back in June. Dam’s three wins and three seconds all came on the turf, albeit routing, and with Mizzen Mast on the top my only concern is the sprint distance. The distance concern also goes for #6 Tela. Smart Strike x Rahy and his dam was a router. Hard to get a read on these two. #8 Shimmering Cara is a sibling to one turf winner from five starters, but this is the first one to get anything near a turf sire. Not a fan of the spread-out work tab, however that may be Pompay’s style. You can put a pen through the Ascot performance of #7 To Be Determined as she was extremely wound up that day, but even with that in mind she is no great shakes and a very, very beatable favourite. #4 Lady Zuzu will be bet off her pedigree and sales price, but there are so many negative factors that I don’t like (too many to list). I’m a risk taker and I’ll let these two beat me. $1 Tri 2/1, 6, 8, 9/ALL $20 Race 5: Head-scratching NY-bred MSW to end off the P4/P5. #’s 2, 5, 8 are logical. Levine has #1 working steadily for her return. #10 Resolutely had an interrupted preparation for her return. Her run two back makes her very competitive here. Anything can happen in these NY MSWs. Will consider #11 if she draws in. #6, the Motion FTS, has a steady, stamina-building work tab, but his pedigree is more sprint heavy and I’ll take him on. Race 7: Rosario made a huge premature move on #9 Dominate earlier in the meet so it’s no surprise to see Lezcano listed this time around. 1 for 23 is far from appealing, but this is a different horse on turf and there is not much strength here. #5 Handsome Dennis was second in this class in Southern California and ran decent in his first two races on the East Coast. Got too far back in a slow pace last time, but to be honest I thought he could have closed a bit better. Has a chance on the drop. #3 You Tarzan is a complete bomb that can pop up in this sort of race. No chance he was anywhere near fully cranked on his return from a vet issue, and last time he ran back quickly and lost all hope when spotting them a few lengths at the start. Stamina concerns, but at times has shown tactical speed and if Abel gets him a good spot he has a chance at lighting up the toteboard. #4 Loveisheartandsoul has a large gap in activity off a vet scratch and takes a suspicious drop. Motion generally has decent synthetic to turf numbers, but don’t get deceived on #8 Defining Product; those numbers drop significantly when factoring in either races at SAR or drops from allowance to claiming. Race 8: #5 Baby B won her only turf sprint and if she doesn’t bounce off that 1:08 1/5 effort she can repeat here. Alvarado can put her in the perfect spot and burst away from a field lacking quality. #3 and #4 are two that I don’t really want to use, but my ticket isn’t overly expensive so I can throw them in. Interesting to see Rocco aboard #9, and I can see her hitting the board. Also intrigue with Rajiv on #6, but that one I can’t touch. $1 Tri 5/3, 4, 9/ALL $18 Race 9: #7 Bobby’s Kitten is the “Ghurair” of this card---he’s the one to beat and a strong shout for a P4 single. Can track the speed and rev past them in the stretch. #5 and #6 are the other contenders but I do think they are a step below quality wise. The other three runners can all finish in the top three, but I’m not sure there will be much value. Race 10: This is Pletcher’s race to lose with #6 Murmure. Don’t be fooled by the slash in tag and complete switch of conditions. Todd is 6 for 13 in MCL events when they go from both route to sprint and turf to dirt, and all six winners took a massive plunge while five of the six were in cheap events like this one. However, only one of those 13 races came at the Spa and he didn’t run that great (the horse was last seen a week ago in Columbus winning a 5000N2L…). I’m going to single him on a ticket with a higher base unit but go with almost ALL on my wider ticket as this is a complete crapshoot to end the card. $0.60 Early Pick Four Race 2: 2, 5 Race 3: 2, 3, 6 Race 4: 1, 2, 6, 8, 9 Race 5: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10 $90.00 $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 7: 3, 5, 9 Race 8: 3, 4, 5 Race 9: 7 Race 10: 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 $32.40 $5 Late Pick Four Race 7: 3, 5, 9 Race 8: 5 Race 9: 7 Race 10: 6 $15 Race 7 $1 (Cover) Pick Three: 3, 5, 9/3, 4, 5, 9/5, 6, 7 $36...if Bobby's Kitten wins (and the other two legs come in) I should at least break even, but I should collect a decent profit if the 5 or 6 upset. Good luck! Last edited by Kitan : 08-08-2014 at 11:21 AM. 
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#2
08-08-2014, 02:59 PM
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LATE add of #1 in R7...may be able to wire them like Junior did in the 5th...
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