8/8: Saratoga (Day 14; Whitney Day; $44k C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

The real thing.. Seven hard hitters between the ages of 4-8 with 185 starts, 45 wins and $2.5MM in earnings between them going 9f. And you can take one home for $32,000!

Most Likely: #1 Cease 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Looking Cool 12-1 WON ($14.20)
Next Best: #6 Mail 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Lieutenant Seany O 5-1 5th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Brown/Klaravich Deeply Undervalued (Kitten's Joy) a half to Sleepless Knight and Sleepless Dixie..

Most Likely: #9 Deeply Undervalued 3-1: Chad Brown tough in these spots.. 6th
Best Value: #4 Acoustic 15-1: Juddmonte Tapit gray 1 of 2 Motts here.. 9th
Next Best: #7 Rafting 4-1: Motion Wertheimer h/b o/o SW dam.. 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Conquest Windycity 5-1: $800k OBS 2yo cited by Casse on ATR.. 2nd


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Deep group of smart pedigreed 2yo's, all making career debuts..

Most Likely: #6 Smart Moon 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Wingman 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Economic Model 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Set the Trappe 7-2 2nd


4th: Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Reload 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Charming Kitten 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Under Control 8-1 WON ($12.60)


5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Mysterious group of older colts and geldings, many resuming careers after breaks of various duration. Pace looks honest at worst with heated potential..

Most Likely: #4 Lookaroundcorners 5-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Zennor 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Take Cover 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Ascend 8-1 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
2: 9 (A), - (B), 1-4-7 (C)
3: 6-7 (A), 1-4-8-9 (B), 2-3-5-10 (C)
4: 6 (A), 4 (B), 2 (C)
5: 4-7 (A), 2-9 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
Full (A/B/C): $88


P4 Grid:

2: 9 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-6 (C)
3: 4-6-7-9 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-3-5-10 (C)
4: 6 (A), 4 (B), 2 (C)
5: 4-7 (A), 2-9 (B), 5-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $73 (With $1 All A's Play)


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$44k P6 C/O starts here..

What do you do with Havana who is 2nd off the injury break and appears to have gate issues based on start in return and poor gate work start per Welsch/Vesce?

Most Likely: #4 Ocean Knight-Late SCR
Next Best: #2 Juba 5-2: Just modestly talented but has looks to own pace edge.. 3rd
Best Value: #1 Joking 12-1: Charlie Baker regularly 3rd at a price in these settings.. 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Havana 7-2 4th


7th: 12th De La Rose-R, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

As always, the restricted non-winner of a Sweepstakes condition of this (and the Lure) make for fascinating melange of talent..

Best Value: #5 Recepta 6-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #9 Daring Kathy 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Pink Poppy 12-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Ticking Katie 8-1 4th


8th: 90th Test (G1), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Tremendous cast of sophomore gals in year's first G1 under a mile. Cavorting would be very tough with a repeat of her Jersey Girl and should get a great trip no matter how the pace unfolds..

Most Likely: #2 Cavorting 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #6 Wonder Gal 6-1 8th
Best Value: #3 By the Moon 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Angela Renee 6-1 7th


9th: 88th Whitney (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

As strong a Whitney lineup as anyone can recall including last year's returning defender (Moreno), this year's Met Mile star (Honor Code), a Belmont-JCGC winner (Tonalist), the '15 Foster hero (Noble Bird), the '14 Travers champ (V.E. Day), plus Wicked Strong, Lea, Normandy Invasion and Liam's Map. You'll have to make a few deductions to whittle down the list and you could start with taking a stand against Honor Code who just seems so much better suited to one turn pace scenarios. Coach Inge SCR'ing leaving Moreno and Liam's Map as your speeds with Noble Bird a pressing pressence. Wicked Strong, Tonalist, Lea and Normandy Invasion should comprise the second flight with V. E. Day and Honor Code trailing. If Moreno and Liam's Map do not cancel each other dueling, the deep closers will be highly compromised. Liam's Map feels like the contender to catch in the stretch at a value adding Mike Smith and toting a strong worktab. Noble Bird gets first run on him with Tonalist and Wicked Strong the stretch threats. He won't be 20-1, but Wicked Strong is the right price to work around given his nearly perfect efforts over this surface, the addition of Luis Saez and Jimmy Jerkens plot for this assignment..

Best Value: #9 Wicked Strong 20-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Liam's Map 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Tonalist 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Noble Bird 5-1 9th


10th: 12th Waya (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #12 Danza Cavallo 3-1 10th
Best Value: #2 Eastern Belle 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Queen's Parade 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 White Rose 12-1 3rd


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Full Tap 7-2 6th
Next Best: #$2 Bella Kateri 3-1 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #10 Blue Beryl 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Majestic Bloom 8-1 5th


P6 Grid:

6: 4/SCR (A), 2 (B), 1-9 (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 1-3-7-8 (B), 4-9 (C)
9: 9 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
10: 12 (A), 2 (B), 4-5-8-10 (C)
11: 2-3 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x6x3x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
Full (A/B/C): $264


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-6 (A), 1-7-8 (B), 4-9 (C)
9: 9 (A), 2-4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
10: 12 (A), 2 (B), 4-5-8-10 (C)
11: 2-3 (A), 8-10 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x2x4 = 144 x $.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $74 (With $1 All A's Play)


Good luck!
Steve

[knickslions2]

Great races today!! This is kind of day we wait for all spring. Best of luck Steve! Tons of value out there today

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

Some very irksome SCR's..

[Alabama Stakes]

Hey boss, could you have Jimmy Jerkins take the hood off of Wicked Strong ? Is he blind ?