10/8: Belmont Park (4th-11th); Keeneland (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 69th Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Yellow Agate's debut was one of the best juvy filly efforts of '16. Built to go a route of ground, anything close to that first start wins today..

Most Likely: #4 YELLOW AGATE 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #3 Nonna Mela 8-5 4th
Best Value: #6 Colorful Charades 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Sky Gesture 2-1 5th


5th: 36th Kelso (G2), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Was in attendance for Tommy Macho's eye-popping Fred Hooper win in February and anything close to that handles this group at nice number. 3/2-0-1 at Belmont and working steadily toward return for on-a-roll Paul Pompa..

Best Value: #7 Tommy Macho 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Anchor Down 5-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Point Piper 3-1 4th


6th: 39th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Field of 6 didn't need any added bodies to make it tricky with group distinguishable by no more than a length or two. With modest pace presented, feels like Sentiero Italia is the obstacle for Lady Eli today..

Most Likely: #5 Lady Eli 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Next Best: #4 Sentiero Italia 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Ame Bleue 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Itsonlyactingdad 15-1 5th


7th: 1st Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational, 3+, 6f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

SCR #4 Holding Gold who runs at KEE; Difficult start to the P5 with 5 that appear very eligible (2-3-5-6-10)..

Most Likely: #2 Disco Partner 4-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Green Mask 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Pure Sensation 3-1 WON ($6.30)
Exotics Use: #6 Power Alert 10-1 2nd


8th: 145th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Syndergaard, who is a question mark stretching out, will encounter pace pressure every step. Think you want those that will stalk and go..

Most Likely: #1 Practical Joke 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #5 Favorable Outcome 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Big Gray Rocket 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Syndergaard 9-5 2nd


9th: 42nd Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Really fun running of this with some California invaders adding flavor. All 3 Chad Brown trainees look imposing. Peter Miller's Monster Bea gets Castellano to support his rally and Inspector Lynley took next step upstate winning the Saranac..

Best Value: #6 Annals of Time 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Beach Patrol 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Monster Bea 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Camelot Kitten 3-1 WON ($8.00)


10th: 98th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

SCR War Story; Very little pace here. Possible that Effinex and Protonico spar mildly all the way around?

Most Likely: #6 Effinex 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Mubtaahij 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Protonico 12-1 3rd


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Finale that has potential to be explosive with hatful of big prices well within striking range of honors..

Most Likely: #9 Lead by Example 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Chang's Secret 12-1 9th
Next Best: #11 No Texting 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Dearie 30-1 7th


P5 Grid:

7: 2-10 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-3-7-8-9 (C)
8: 1-5 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-4 (C)
9: 6-10 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-3-5 (C)
11: 4-9-11 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

8: 1-5 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-4 (C)
9: 6-10 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), 1 (B), 3-5 (C)
11: 4-9-11 (A), 1-5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES ~ POWER OUTAGE DELAY ~ 1ST: 1:40PM


5th: 20th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Big Rock 6-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Hogy 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Mongolian Saturday 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Almasty 8-1 5th


6th: 36th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Stonetastic 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #1 Irish Jasper 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #5 Bendable 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 I'm a Looker 10-1 4th


7th: 19th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tepin 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #8 Celestine 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Nemoralia 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Onus 12-1 7th


8th: 103rd Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 No Dozing 12-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Classic Empire 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Holiday Bonus 8-1 11th
Super Add: #2 Gunnevera 4-1 5th


9th: 31st Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Cute 6-1 ML on Modialiste..

Most Likely: #4 Modialiste 6-1 4th
Best Value: #11 What a View 6-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Ironicus 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Tourist 3-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

5: 4-7-12 (A), - (B), 3-5-9-11 (C)
6: 1-2 (A), - (B), 5-7-8 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
8: 9-11 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-6-12 (C)
9: 4 (A), 8-11 (B), 5-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-2 (A), 5 (B), 7-8 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
8: 9-11 (A), 2-3-7 (B), 6-12 (C)
9: 4-8-11 (A), 5-10 (B), 6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)


10th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Commandeering 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Birdnest Party 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Souper Catch 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Borso Vento 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #11 Guest Suite 12-1 WON ($15.20)


Good luck!
Steve