9/4-5: Churchill Downs (146th Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks )

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 146TH DERBY DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Essential Quality 3-1: Godolphin Tapit homebred out of fast sprint mare.. WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Santa Cruiser 15-1: Desormeaux firster a half to quick Beau Oxy.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Rye Sense of Humor 6-1: Chased Drop Anchor home at ELP.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Xietelhuas 12-1: May want turf, but Eric Reed sharp debut guy.. 11th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Spanish Kingdom 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 On a Spree 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #4 Trident Hit 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Attorney Tim 8-1 4th


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Cowboy Diplomacy 7-2 5th
Next Best: #6 Cool Bobby 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Wayne O 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Coastal Defense 8-1 2nd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

One of the weekend's most interesting races. 10-1 Tank Commander is a regally bred ouchy type with an ideal behind the speed style..

Best Value: #5 Tank Commander 10-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Locally Owned 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Signalman 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Chess Chief 6-1 8th


8th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Smooth Like Strait 8-5 4th
Best Value: #2 American Butterfly 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Field Pass 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Fancy Liquor 9-2 WON ($11.60)


P5 Grid:

4: 4-5-11 (A), 1-6-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-5-12 (A), 7-9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54 (4-5-11 with 5-8 with 6-11 with 4-5-12 with 2-4-8)


P4 Grid:

5: 5-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
6: 4-6-11 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5-7-12 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x6x1 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-8 with 4-6-11 with 4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8)


9th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (.20 Must Pay Single Six, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Echo Town 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Digital 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Rushie 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Tap It to Win 4-1 3rd


10th: Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Therideofalifetime 7-5 4th
Best Value: #4 Ultimate Badger 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Super Stock 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Belafonte 20-1 10th


11th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Newspaperofrecord 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Juliet Foxtrot 5-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Daddy Is a Legend 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 La Signare 10-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

7: 4-5-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4-8 (C)
9: 2-5-9 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 4x1x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 4x3x3x2x1 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-5-7-12 with 2-4-8 with 2-5-9 with 4-10 with 1)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-5 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-5-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-10 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x1 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup: 2x5x2x1 = 20 x .50 = $10 (2-5 with 2-5-6-7-9 with 4-10 with 5)


12th: Derby City Distaff (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ce Ce 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Serengeti Empress 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Bell's the One 10-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Bellafina 3-1 6th


13th: Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Sacred Life 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Mr Dumas 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Factor This 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Rockemperor 7-2 3rd


14th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #17 Tiz the Law 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #16 Honor A.P. 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #18 Authentic 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Best Value: #3 Enforceable 30-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Thousand Words Late SCR
Hi-5 Play: #15 Ny Traffic 20-1 8th


Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 13/Turf: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x1x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x1x3 = $3 (7 with 8 with 16-17-18)
Backup: 3x1x3 = $9 (1-4-5 with 8 with 3-10-15)


Oaks-Derby DD:

FR 13/Oaks: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
SA 14/Derby: 16-17-18 (A), - (B), 3-10-15 (C)

All A's: 3x3 = 9 x $5 = $45
Backup: 1x3 = 3 x $3 = $9 (7 with 16-17-18) $3 Oaks-Derby Double (7/18) Paid $522.60

Backup: 3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27 (1-4-5 with 3-10-15)


.20 'Must Pay' Single Six:

9: 2-4-5-6-9
10: 3-4-6-10
11: 3-4
12: 4-6-8-9-10
13: 8
14: 16-17

All A's: 5x4x2x5x1x2 = 400 x .20 = $80


P5 Grid:

10: 4-10 (A), 3-6-8-9 (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-4-6-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x1x4x1x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)
Backup: 2x1x4x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48 (4-10 with 4 with 1-4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-6-9 with 16-17)


P4 Grid:

11: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
12: 4-8-10 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
13: 8 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-3-4-9 (C)
14: 16-17 (A), 3-18 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x1x2 = 6 x $2 = $12
Backup: 1x3x5x2 = 30 x .50 = $15 (4 with 4-8-10 with 1-2-3-4-9 with 16-17)


Safe trips all; Let's get lucky!
Steve