8/13: Saratoga (Day 23; Fourstardave/Special)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Not a tremendous amount of strong pedigree/sibling strength to equate to this group. At attractive 12-1, Baie Longue should improve on stretcout in move to turf..

Best Value: #4 Baie Longue 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 I'm Very Busy 3-1 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #5 Calycanthus 5-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Full Coverage 7-2 7th


2nd: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Several droppers and in and out form make this tricky, but repeat of Mount Athos effort last and three back boss this group. Gaslight (15-1) is better on the main (and note Quick's excellent T/D numbers) and may be useful exotics booster..

Most Likely: #3 Mount Athos 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Gaslight 15-1 4th
Next Best: #1a Charger 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Cold as Hell 6-1 3rd


3rd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Blazing Star isn't favored and looks like the one to beat. After her though, everyone looks the same..

Most Likely: #3 Blazing Star 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Constitutional Rage 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Cadencia SCER
Exotics Use: #1 No Payne 8-1 2nd


4th: Saratoga Special (G2), 2yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Very strong quintet with 6f winners Gulfport & Damon's Mound at the top and Super Chow a lurking speed presence up from Florida. Not against anyone, but can't help but be rooting for Michelle Lovell in an opportunity to further raise her growing reputation with Damon's Mound..

Most Likely: #2 Damon's Mound 7-5 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #4 Gulfport 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Super Chow 8-1 3rd


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Finger Lakes invader Tosconova Beauty is fastest coming in, but as noted by Paul Matties with us on Loose on the Lead Sunday, those runners have struggled over this deep, tiring Spa strip..

Most Likely: #2 Sweet Mystery 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Tosconova Beauty 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Captainsdaughter 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Early Edition 5-1 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 3-4 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
2: 3 (A), - (B), 1-7-8 (C)
3: 3 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x1x2x5 = $40 ($20 for .50)
All A's: 2x1x1x2x3 = $12 ($6 for .50)
.50 Backups: $18 (1-7-8 in 2nd); $12 (2-7 in 3rd); $3 (1 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

2: 3 (A), 1-8 (B), 7 (C)
3: 3 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x2x5 = $30 ($15 for .50)
All A's: 1x1x2x3 = $6 ($3 for .50)
.50 Backups: $3 (7 in 2nd); $6 (2-7 in 3rd); $1.50 (1 in 4th)


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Golden Hornet (out of More Than Ready mare) is 3rd choice and Rivelli very savvy with this type..

Best Value: #5 Golden Hornet 4-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Neuro 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #2 Two Down 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Sherriff Bianco SCR


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

A couple here seem slightly more likely with only the Lukas railrunner having had experience....

Most Likely: #5 Skellig 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Marty's Magic 15-1 8th
Next Best: #6 General Jim 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Bourbon Bash 4-1 WON ($10.00)


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

If it's not Portfolio Company, it could be any of about 7 others..

Most Likely: #1 Portfolio Company 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Capone 20-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Midnight Worker 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Ohtwoohthreefive 12-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
6: 3-5 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x5x1 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (1 on 4th); $18 (2-7 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

5: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
6: 3-5 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x5x1 = $50 ($25 for .50)
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backups: $9 (2-7 in 6th)


9th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

$750k Repole/Viola firster from Pletcher working like a horse that will fire, but draws the less-than-ideal rial. 2nd timer For Good is a full to Good Magic for Bob Edwards & Chad and was solid upon introduction..

Most Likely: #4 For Good 7-2 6th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Unlimitedpotential 3-1 2nd/WON ($5.90)
Best Value: #10 Southern Flag 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Happy Bob 9-2 5th


10th: Fourstardave (G1), 3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

The late Paul Pompa-bred Regal Glory is a special mare and has most of the edge in this nice group. Ortiz does need to be careful about leaving her with too much to do. as much as we love Lee Einsidler and root for him, this isn't Casa's best trip. As Nick Tammaro mentioned yesterday on ATR, Get Smokin may forget to stop. Masen is poised on pattern to run a career best here. And note that Front Run the Fed has maintained his Brown barn form for Caramori..

Most Likely: #3 Regal Glory 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Masen 2-1 3rd


11th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #7 GREG'S HONOR 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Strike Price 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Smart Joker 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Calloway Peak 8-1 WON ($14.20)


P5 Grid:

7: 4-5-6 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-4 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
11: 7-8 (A), - (B), 2-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x2x2 =$60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = $36 ($18 for .50)
.50 Backups: $27 (1-2-5 in 10th); $18 (2-9 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-4 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C)
11: 7-8 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x4 =$24 ($12 for .50)
All A's: 1x3x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
.50 Backups: $9 (1-2-5 in 10th)

[Kasept]