Beyer's for Sat's Stakes

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Looking over the final times for the stakes run at GP and SA on Saturday, this looks like a pretty tricky day for figure making at both places, especially with the two 7.5 furlong sprints at Gulfstream Park....which I believe should be cut loose from the other two 7 furlong sprints.

At SA, the Robert Lewis Stakes came back alarmingly fast, while the day's first route race, which featured Rackateer beating Sinister Minister came back slower than expected. There's a chance that the main track possibly got a little bit faster as the card went on, but I really don't think the evidence is strong enough to suggest fooling around with anything.

The commerical numbers aren't posted on the website yet...but here's what I came up with after looking over the final times.

Corinthian- 105
Scat Daddy- 97
Chelokee- 91
Lava Man- 108
Great Hunter- 100
Albertus Maximus- 91

(Now the very tricky ones)

Deadly Dealer- 102
King of the Roxy- 100
Half Ours- 102

[cmorioles]

I haven't looked at the races at all, but I don't see any way Half Ours gets a 102. I'm not saying that isn't what he deserves, but I would think we'll see a lot higher than that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I agree that Half Ours race will probably come back faster than I have it, perhaps even by as many as 8 points.

However, I simply could not justify giving him anything higher than a 102.

[eajinabi]

Is it me or was the track a bit fast yesterday at Gulfstream??

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Is it me or was the track a bit fast yesterday at Gulfstream??

I thought it was on the speedy side, but I also thought Santa Anita
main track was a little on the dull side yesterday.

[cmorioles]

How did somebody from Beligium steal my identity?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Looking over the final times for the stakes run at GP and SA on Saturday, this looks like a pretty tricky day for figure making at both places, especially with the two 7.5 furlong sprints at Gulfstream Park....which I believe should be cut loose from the other two 7 furlong sprints.

At SA, the Robert Lewis Stakes came back alarmingly fast, while the day's first route race, which featured Rackateer beating Sinister Minister came back slower than expected. There's a chance that the main track possibly got a little bit faster as the card went on, but I really don't think the evidence is strong enough to suggest fooling around with anything.

The commerical numbers aren't posted on the website yet...but here's what I came up with after looking over the final times.

Corinthian- 105
Scat Daddy- 97
Chelokee- 91
Lava Man- 108
Great Hunter- 100
Albertus Maximus- 91

(Now the very tricky ones)

Deadly Dealer- 102
King of the Roxy- 100
Half Ours- 102

Nice calls, what would have been the effect of not splitting the variant between the 7 and 7.5 furlong races? Would KOTR and DD have higher or lower figures?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

They would get figures quite a bit higher

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They would get figures quite a bit higher

I figured that had to be the case. Weird that a half furlong could account for that much change. Must have been an issue with the run up distance or where they started the timer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That could be the case.

If anyone remembers the Hutchinson last year, Keyed Entry went 1:07 3/5ths to the six furlong marker and beat First Samurai in a race that earned something like a 111 Beyer.

They probably never even thought about cutting that race loose because the top two had so resoundingly beaten the others, and because the top two both looked to be capable of running a big one.

Proud Accolade overcame a tough trip to win at that distance, with a good figure, in the Hutchinson two years ago. He was like 6th beaten 15 lengths at 2/5 odds in the Rushaway Stakes next time out.

I can't say I really fully trust any figure earned going 7.5fs at GP, it's a rarely run and odd-ball distance.