Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?

[SniperSB23]

Let's imagine for a second that Ketchikan didn't get injured and ran in the Arkansas Derby and duplicated his 99 Beyer. Now let's assume Curlin runs the exact same race, finishes the same distance ahead of Storm in May and the rest of the field but is only 2-3 lengths ahead of Ketchikan. Is there the same amount of buzz for him as there is now? Don't get me wrong, I think he's a heck of a horse and one of the few that has a shot to win on Derby day but I really think people should think of this scenario (using whatever 99 Beyer horse you'd like) to evaluate him instead of basing it on blowing away a bunch of sprinter/miler types at 9 furlongs.

[ArlJim78]

yes, same amount of buzz for Curlin.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

yes, same amount of buzz for Curlin.

I don't know, people seem pretty impressed by margins in forum-land. This just kind of seems like Bernardini all over. Granted Curlin won't be running into Invasor anytime soon but 7/2 in the future pool seems insane to me.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Let's imagine for a second that Ketchikan didn't get injured and ran in the Arkansas Derby and duplicated his 99 Beyer. Now let's assume Curlin runs the exact same race, finishes the same distance ahead of Storm in May and the rest of the field but is only 2-3 lengths ahead of Ketchikan. Is there the same amount of buzz for him as there is now? Don't get me wrong, I think he's a heck of a horse and one of the few that has a shot to win on Derby day but I really think people should think of this scenario (using whatever 99 Beyer horse you'd like) to evaluate him instead of basing it on blowing away a bunch of sprinter/miler types at 9 furlongs.

See my thread on PF's...if Dr Roman is correct, Curlin's race, while visually impressive, doesn't measure up to other prep winners...time will tell!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Let's imagine for a second that Ketchikan didn't get injured and ran in the Arkansas Derby and duplicated his 99 Beyer. Now let's assume Curlin runs the exact same race, finishes the same distance ahead of Storm in May and the rest of the field but is only 2-3 lengths ahead of Ketchikan. Is there the same amount of buzz for him as there is now? Don't get me wrong, I think he's a heck of a horse and one of the few that has a shot to win on Derby day but I really think people should think of this scenario (using whatever 99 Beyer horse you'd like) to evaluate him instead of basing it on blowing away a bunch of sprinter/miler types at 9 furlongs.

I agree with everything you said.

I think there is a reason why Pletcher and Assmussen haven't won the derby. And, by god, i'm sticking to that reason this year. If they win then i'm wrong.

[lemoncrush]

I don't care as much of him not running at age 2, or just have 3 lifetime starts. I'm more worried about the fact that I don't think any other horse in the rebel or Arkansas Derby is going to the derby. (at least, they shouldn't...Storm in May has no business going).
I don't knock him for who he ran against, but you would at least like to see him tested against one of the other top 10 candidates before betting him at a such a low price on Derby day.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I think there is a reason why Pletcher and Assmussen haven't won the derby. And, by god, i'm sticking to that reason this year. If they win then i'm wrong.

I will puke in CD's grandstand if a cheater like Assmussen wins the Derby.

Nothing against Curlin, as I think he's a quality horse (and less likely to be "aided" than others that won everything yesterday for Assman) but there's a reason his horses never run big on big days...

Detention barns.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

I will puke in CD's grandstand if a cheater like Assmussen wins the Derby.

Nothing against Curlin, as I think he's a quality horse (and less likely to be "aided" than others that won everything yesterday for Assman) but there's a reason his horses never run big on big days...

Detention barns.

You are correct, sir. That's the only thing keeping me from making Curlin my Derby pick (well, that and a possible shitty post).

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by philcski

I will puke in CD's grandstand if a cheater like Assmussen wins the Derby.

Nothing against Curlin, as I think he's a quality horse (and less likely to be "aided" than others that won everything yesterday for Assman) but there's a reason his horses never run big on big days...

Detention barns.

Not trying to be a smartass, but which high caliber trainers have NEVER cheated, ever?? My guess is some have never been caught. I know Pletcher, Asmussen, O'Neill have all cheated so that's a large chunk of the Derby field right there. Which ones NEVER cheat??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Not trying to be a smartass, but which high caliber trainers have NEVER cheated, ever?? My guess is some have never been caught. I know Pletcher, Asmussen, O'Neill have all cheated so that's a large chunk of the Derby field right there. Which ones NEVER cheat??

Well... the likely 2nd choice is trained by a guy who has won the Derby and the BC Classic and he's never been suspended.