Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement

The Indomitable DrugS · #1 04-15-2007, 01:53 PM

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

miraja2 · #2 04-15-2007, 01:57 PM

DrugS,
Just out of curiosity, do you think post position will matter much with him?
What if he draws 1, 19, or 20? Do you like him enough to still go with him from one of those posts?

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 04-15-2007, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

DrugS,
Just out of curiosity, do you think post position will matter much with him?
What if he draws 1, 19, or 20? Do you like him enough to still go with him from one of those posts?

I will bet him from any post.

In a 10 furlong race--with such a long run into the turn, and a horse with his grinding style---post postion means very little.

I don't know for sure that AGS is the most likely winner in the race...perhaps Curlin might be....but he's a great price, has the right style, and I will be quite surprised if he isn't on the board....

blackthroatedwind · #4 04-15-2007, 02:49 PM

I like him as well, at least at this point, and think he is a cinch to finish ahead of Curlin ( which may only guarantee him 14th ).

The Indomitable DrugS · #5 04-15-2007, 02:52 PM

And why does Curlin have to run so badly?

Sightseek · #6 04-15-2007, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

And why does Curlin have to run so badly?

Isn't he a prime candidate for the 'bounce' theorists?

#7 04-15-2007, 02:54 PM

I think he could win if the rest of the field were alpacas.

Mortimer · #8 04-15-2007, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

As you know...I also had fine money acb on Inky and also had Jazil and Steppenwolfer in my first 4 last year.

Not to mention Benardini and Jazil winning the next two legs.

So I do speak with some authority when I say these 2 things:

2......I am not taking him...under any cicrumstances........also good.

Mortimer · #9 04-15-2007, 02:01 PM

Someone stole my first thing.

Sightseek · #10 04-15-2007, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

As you know...I also had fine money acb on Inky and also had Jazil and Steppenwolfer in my first 4 last year.

Not to mention Benardini and Jazil winning the next two legs.

So I do speak with some authority when I say these 2 things:

2......I am not taking him...under any cicrumstances........also good.

LOL, could your day get any worse by knowing these were my plays too and coming from me that isn't saying much!

Mortimer · #11 04-15-2007, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

LOL, could your day get any worse by knowing these were my plays too and coming from me that isn't saying much!

Oh my God.

Could you seek another site....ma'amski?

I'm kidding....fine work.

Mortimer · #12 04-15-2007, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

LOL, could your day get any worse by knowing these were my plays too and coming from me that isn't saying much!

Oh...do you squamish?

philcski · #13 04-16-2007, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

I'm not surprised this is your selection; while you make some very convincing points on why he's a solid selection (and I would agree with you on them all) he's the classic "wiseguy" horse and that seems to be your goal here, to prove your "wiseguyness" with this choice. Good luck, I hope you're right because I'm sure I'll use him somewhere in my wagers.

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

SniperSB23 · #14 04-16-2007, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm not surprised this is your selection; while you make some very convincing points on why he's a solid selection (and I would agree with you on them all) he's the classic "wiseguy" horse and that seems to be your goal here, to prove your "wiseguyness" with this choice. Good luck, I hope you're right because I'm sure I'll use him somewhere in my wagers.

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

I tossed Point Determined last year from the tri but will be playing Any Given Saturday in the win spot this year.

PPerfectfan · #15 04-16-2007, 01:16 PM

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

<raising hand> yep I fell right into the "wiseguy" horse trap damnit!!

I didnt play him on top but he was on all of my tickets.I shoulda know his big butt couldnt get it done. I think Dominican is the Point Determined of this years Derby.

philcski · #16 04-16-2007, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I tossed Point Determined last year from the tri but will be playing Any Given Saturday in the win spot this year.

And as you well know I also think highly of his chances to at least hit the super. I'm just pointing out the fact that his selection was pretty obvious due to his style (once again, not necessarily the wrong approach to things.)

Ruffian and Xtra are good friends with the office manager at WinStar, and over BC weekend we went out to dinner with him... so I said "I've seen a couple Distorted Humors out there in the last few weeks that are interesting, what do you think of Cowtown Cat" he says, "he's ok but Any Given Saturday is our Derby horse." That said a lot to me.

The Indomitable DrugS · #17 04-16-2007, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

Cajungator26 · #18 04-16-2007, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

I used him too. Had Barbaro to win, but boxed Barbaro, A. P. Warrior, Steppenwolfer and Storm Treasure for my tri box. Bluegrass Rat screwed me up. (Well, technically I did that myself, but still.