BEYER: Poly's Anti-Speed Bias

[Kasept]

On the surface, Blue Grass gives no Derby guidance
By Andrew Beyer

http://www.lcsun-news.com/sports/ci_5675976


Leave it to the experts... Sunday it was Steve Crist offering a fog-clearing view of the NY franchise situation, and below Andy Beyer delivers a succinct summary of what happened at KEE in Saturday's Blue Grass and 'Poly's Problem'. The Blue Grass was run in a manner totally incongruent with the way the Classics, particularly the Derby, are run, and offers little in the way of clues as to the principal's Rose Run prospects. I say little because there are a few clues about the 5 top finishers in the BG who will move forward to Louisville...

Dominican, who closed out the final eighth in under :11.0, was able to make up as much as four lengths in the late stages and demonstrated that he is a danger May 5th knowing that he has the speed to say within striking distance in a race run in an authentic manner... Street Sense could not have had a better race in which to 'react' from his layoff start in the Tampa Bay Derby tussle with Any Given Saturday, and can now be fine tuned for the next three weeks by Carl Nafzger, who will be one of three trainers, (potentially four), in the event looking for his 2nd Derby blanket... Zanjero remains a fascinating Derby player having run on the slowest part of the track and again demonstrating a tenacity and consistancy largely missing from many of the longshot candidates that will line up in Derby 133... Teufelsberg couldn't hold on at 9f running :51.4/1:16.3 on the lead, and is a good candidate to be last at Churchill going 10f in Jamie Sanders' campaign to ruin him... As long as Great Hunter exited the goofy race in good order after a DQ-worthy mauling by punchdrunk T-berg, he goes on as viable as any upper tier Derby hopeful knowing that Doug O'Neill will only start turning the screws on him now...

[docicu3]

So all Keeneland route races are essentially sprints from the top of the stretch to the wire as fields continue to walk around the track trying to remain in stalking but never leading positions. Was this Bluegrass a record of sorts as the slowest rendition since Lexington built a racetrack?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by docicu3

So all Keeneland route races are essentially sprints from the top of the stretch to the wire as fields continue to walk around the track trying to remain in stalking but never leading positions. Was this Bluegrass a record of sorts as the slowest rendition since Lexington built a racetrack?

Believe I heard it was the 58th slowest in the race's 83 runnings..

[MisterB]

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MisterB

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

Uh.. whining where? He is explaining the jockey reaction to the specific situation emerging at KEE and the affect it had on the bizarre Blue Grass we witnessed Saturday. While Beyer's Derby selection has become a humorous running gag, you and I would give left nuts to be half as successful betting the races on a DAILY basis as he. I would anyway.

[docicu3]

Gentleman.......this thread is about the bluegrass and the change in the wind of racing strategy.

MrB......fifteen yards for piling on and unnecessary roughness of a handicapper!!

I can see this is going to be a hyperkinectic week here on the trail. Coffee and breakfast anyone???

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Uh.. whining where? He is explaining the jockey reaction to the specific situation emerging at KEE and the affect it had on the bizarre Blue Grass we witnessed Saturday. While Beyer's Derby selection has become a humorous running gag, you and I would give left nuts to be half as successful betting the races on a DAILY basis as he. I would anyway.

Andy wrote:
I wrote last fall this was an ugly style of racing. Others disagreed. Keeneland President Nick Nicholson told me then that he liked the nature of the races, with bunched fields and tight finishes. The betting public didn't seem to object; Keeneland with Polytrack set wagering records.

But Saturday's races in Lexington, Ky., underscored all that is wrong with the synthetic surface.

That isn't whining? I love my left nut, and the right one too. So Andy's daily success is because of the beyers?? That's why he is so successful?? If this was true, we would all break the bank Steve, bring in the money truck.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Andy wrote:
I wrote last fall this was an ugly style of racing. Others disagreed. Keeneland President Nick Nicholson told me then that he liked the nature of the races, with bunched fields and tight finishes. The betting public didn't seem to object; Keeneland with Polytrack set wagering records.

But Saturday's races in Lexington, Ky., underscored all that is wrong with the synthetic surface.

That isn't whining? I love my left nut, and the right one too. So Andy's daily success is because of the beyers?? That's why he is so successful?? If this was true, we would all break the bank Steve, bring in the money truck.

B,

I've been as critical of Beyer as anyone.. (As evidence, my post-Giacomo piece criticizing his vicious analysis of that '05 Derby: http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/gue...5/050516.html).. But for the most part, Beyer is 'right' a huge percentage of the time about most topics in the game. As for the BSF's and his own horseplaying, obviously he and we can't and don't rely solely on the figs for wagering decisions. His own success at the windows is now a 3+ decade long run of remarkable and enviable prowess. It just can't be argued. Are the figures as revolutionary and effective as a handicapping tool as they were when introduced to the public? Maybe not.. But they still work just as DRF's original speed ratings 'still work'.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Kasept

B,

I've been as critical of Beyer as anyone.. (As evidence, my post-Giacomo piece criticizing his vicious analysis of that '05 Derby: http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/gue...5/050516.html).. But for the most part, Beyer is 'right' a huge percentage of the time about most topics in the game. As for the BSF's and his own horseplaying, obviously he and we can't and don't rely solely on the figs for wagering decisions. His own success at the windows is now a 3+ decade long run of remarkable and enviable prowess. It just can't be argued. Are the figures as revolutionary and effective as a handicapping tool as they were when introduced to the public? Maybe not.. But they still work just as DRF's original speed ratings 'still work'.

I guess my whole point here is, Beyers are discussed around here like they are the candy of racing, and people discuss them as if they are the sole predictor of an outcome. If people would stop and read your last post here, I feel they will now understand, even Andy doesn't use them as his sole guide to the winners circle. Are they useful, I guess so, if they mean anything on today's card, however, they are merely a rational of history, and one mans opinion on what he thinks

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by MisterB

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

I'd say he is far from whining. He is offering a very real assessment of how that race was run and provided emperical evidence on how other Derby preps were run. For the horses not winning in the race, I'm drawing a line through it, and for Dominican, a win is a win, but there is no way he can expect 26.1 and 51 and change for the first half in the Derby, and turn the race into a 400 yard sprint to the finish like was done Saturday. I don't often agree with Beyer, but in this case, he is spot on.

[brianwspencer]

I think I'm more or less inclined to toss that race when capping the Derby. It obviously stamped Dominican as a horse to watch, but I'm not sure that it did much to lower the stock of Sense or Hunter in my eyes. It was the total opposite of last year's Blue Grass with the same result -- that I'm not really sure what to make of it.

[Jax Cajun]

This thread is all over the board, all I can say about the Beyer figures is that if you don't like 'em don't use 'em and I'll be glad to take your money.

About synthetic surfaces: We just don't have enough data to incorporate it in our normal handicapping, especially when shippers move in. It's one thing to 'cap races where all horses have experience on it, but it's just a guess when you have dirt and turf invaders in the same race on the poly for the first time. I think we've seen horses recover faster from it from the Hollywood - Santa Anita transition, but there is nothing to go on with first time synthetic.

[blackthroatedwind]

The simple fact is that in every thread here that involves Beyer you cannot help but write some version of the same post criticizing Beyer. You are certainly entitled to your opinions but those of us that disagree, or notice this habit of yours, are also entitled to respond in kind. Your initial post in this thread made assumptions that you do not have any actual knowledge about and made comments which were unrelated to the specific content of the thread. You don't like Beyer. Get in line. You're not forming your own line, as you are part of a great deal of internet hotshots that do the same thing, so please don't present yourself as a leader.

Funny, I read a lot of posts similar to yours on the internet, yet in my many years spent at the racetrack I have never seen ANYONE express these same thoughts to his face. I HAVE seen hundreds, if not thousands, of people compliment him. I wonder why that is.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

I'd say he is far from whining. He is offering a very real assessment of how that race was run and provided emperical evidence on how other Derby preps were run. For the horses not winning in the race, I'm drawing a line through it, and for Dominican, a win is a win, but there is no way he can expect 26.1 and 51 and change for the first half in the Derby, and turn the race into a 400 yard sprint to the finish like was done Saturday. I don't often agree with Beyer, but in this case, he is spot on.

OK, what does the other derby preps have anything to do with this one? Evidence of what, he doesn't like poly tracks. he disagrees with the bettors and the President of Keeneland. What point did he make, other than cry like a baby about the poly.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

OK, what does the other derby preps have anything to do with this one? Evidence of what, he doesn't like poly tracks. he disagrees with the bettors and the President of Keeneland. What point did he make, other than cry like a baby about the poly.

The only whiner in any way associated with this is obviously you, someone who through their continued uninformed knocking of Andy Beyer shows an obvious all-consuming jealousy of him, as well as a likely complete dissatisfaction with your own poor results. Criticizing someone who has done as much for horseplayers as Andy Beyer has just exposes you.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The only whiner in any way associated with this is obviously you, someone who through their continued uninformed knocking of Andy Beyer shows an obvious all-consuming jealousy of him, as well as a likely complete dissatisfaction with your own poor results. Criticizing someone who has done as much for horseplayers as Andy Beyer has just exposes you.

I am not knocking Andy personally, and you have no problem knocking me, so what is your point Throat? You believe in Beyers, and are close friends with Andy, so what. I have my own theories on Horse racing, and it is not Beyers, so I am not allowed to disagree with Andy, you or anyone else?

I Got it

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The only whiner in any way associated with this is obviously you, someone who through their continued uninformed knocking of Andy Beyer shows an obvious all-consuming jealousy of him, as well as a likely complete dissatisfaction with your own poor results. Criticizing someone who has done as much for horseplayers as Andy Beyer has just exposes you.

Amen Brother! Andy gave us My Typhoon in the Jenny Wiley from the Youbet show, he didn't have to do that.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by MisterB

OK, what does the other derby preps have anything to do with this one? Evidence of what, he doesn't like poly tracks. he disagrees with the bettors and the President of Keeneland. What point did he make, other than cry like a baby about the poly.

It pretty much has everything to do with the other Derby preps. The way I read it is that you cant seriously take very much out of this race because of the way it was run. He infers that it had something to do with the Polytrack, but I would have felt the same way if they ran this on dirt, pavement, rocks, whatever. I would not advance Dominican on my board or push Street Sense or Great Hunter back because of this race. As Andy points out, it turned into a walk around the track because the jocks didnt want to push their charges knocking the anti speed bias at Keeneland now. That turned the race into a sprint to the finish and that is not gonna happen on Derby Day. The first 1/2 will be ticked off around 0:47, not 0:51.2 like Saturday.

Other preps were run closer to form and therefore, more credibility has to be placed on them than the Blue Grass...actually that's no different than last year's Blue Grass. I drew a line through the field for the race because it was an absolute speed race. This year is a different reason to knock it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

So Andy is frustrated he can't pick a winner, so he is whining to all the public. Everyone has the same perspective as he does. Anyway, when did Andy last pick a derby winner?? I can't seem to remember.

In case you are further confused, allow me to simplify things by disecting this rubbish.....


How the phuck do you know " Andy can't pick a winner "?

He is not whining, but in fact wrote a well thought out piece, backed up completely by facts.

Everyone, in truth, does NOT have the same perspective as Beyer, as evidenced by ArlJim's well thought out disagreement in this thread.

Bringing up when Beyer had his last Derby winner, the last thread Beyer-haters have to cling to, has absolutely NOTHING to do with the column printed to begin this post.


So, in other words, your response was both inaccurate and completely irrelevent to this thread and merely a desperate attempt to sling mud at someone you are obviously jealous of. Get in line, this game is filled with losers who instead of looking into themselves to try and better their play, lash out at those of us that are successful in this game.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In case you are further confused, allow me to simplify things by disecting this rubbish.....


How the phuck do you know " Andy can't pick a winner "?

He is not whining, but in fact wrote a well thought out piece, backed up completely by facts.

Everyone, in truth, does NOT have the same perspective as Beyer, as evidenced by ArlJim's well thought out disagreement in this thread.

Bringing up when Beyer had his last Derby winner, the last thread Beyer-haters have to cling to, has absolutely NOTHING to do with the column printed to begin this post.


So, in other words, your response was both inaccurate and completely irrelevent to this thread and merely a desperate attempt to sling mud at someone you are obviously jealous of. Get in line, this game is filled with losers who instead of looking into themselves to try and better their play, lash out at those of us that are successful in this game.

This was one race, and one piece on Keeneland, and his dislike of the track. He didn't tell just me, he told everyone, including the president of Keeneland. I read this stuff, and come to my own conclusions, Andy isn't happy, because he can't figure out the Beyer, even you said, "Andy thinks he got it right", your own quote. This is not a lash out, and I don't get in any lines, I form my own. When you go out of your way to spew your own venom, to stick up for your friend, I just take it as that. I have big shoulders, I been in this game over 40 years, I still have a bankroll to play with, so life is good.