Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

[Dunbar]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4/24 update

Overall odds are improving. Implied takeout is 2%, but doesn't include a couple of possible horses. (Slew'sTizzy, Imawild, eg)

AGS up from 16-1 to almost 19-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat down from 26.50 to 22.50 at TheGreek
Dominican up from 20.5 to 22.5 at TheGreek
Great Hunter up to 23.4 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 14.73 at Pinny
NoBiz up to 9-1 at World (still 8.85 at Greek)
Scat Daddy up from 9.13 to over 10-1 at Pinny
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny (Marky must have made his bet!). Best now is 52.50-1 at TheGreek
Street Sense down from 7.05 to 6.85 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 18-1 to 20.5 at TheGreek
Zanzero down from 37-1 to 30-1 at Bodog

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 18.91 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Belgravia 70 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 22.5 Greek
Great Hunter 23.4 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 14.73 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 10.08 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 18.15 TheGreek
Zanjero 37 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 2%

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Good stuff, thanks Dunbar.

It's scary how accurate these guys are relative to the closing prices, we should pull this list up again in 3 weeks and see how they did...

[brockguy]

posted this on another one but this is the best of euro odds compilers:
Curlin (5/1) ,
Scat Daddy (6/1) ,
Street Sense (7/1) ,
Nobiz Like Shobiz (9/1) ,
Circular Quay (10/1) ,
Dominican (14/1) ,
Great Hunter (14/1) ,
Notional (14/1) ,
Tiago (16/1) ,
Any Given Saturday (20/1) ,
Hard Spun (20/1) ,
Chelokee (25/1) ,
Cowtown Cat (25/1) ,
Stormello (25/1) ,
Zanjero (25/1) ,
Air Commander (33/1) ,
Deadly Dealer (33/1) ,
Drums of Thunder (33/1) ,
Ketchikan (33/1) ,
King Of The Roxy (33/1)
Sam P (40-1)
Belgravia (50-1)
Cobalt Blue (50-1)
Teuflesberg (66-1)

[Dunbar]

TheGreek put up some matchups today. I'm amused by the first one: (Note that +225 means you get 2.25 to 1; -115 means you put up 1.15 to win 1.)

C's vs S's vs Any other
Wager is on the horses who's 1st name begins with a "C", an "S" or any other horse that runs in the 2007 Kentucky Derby
1801 Horse with 1st name begin with "C" +225
1802 Horse with 1st name begin with "S" +285
1803 Any Other Horse -115

Nobiz Like Shobiz vs Scat Daddy Both horses must start for action.
1805 Nobiz Like Shobiz -125
1806 Scat Daddy +100

Curlin vs Street Sense Both horses must start for action.
1807 Curlin -110
1808 Street Sense -110

Dominican vs Zanjero Both horses must start for action.
1809 Dominican -110
1810 Zanjero -110

Any Given Saturday vs Circular Quay Both horses must start for action.
1811 Any Given Saturday +110
1812 Circular Quay -135

Great Hunter vs Hard Spun Both horses must start for action.
1813 Great Hunter -110
1814 Hard Spun -110

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

4/20 changes:

CQ down from 10.15-1 to 9.85-1 at TheGreek. Oddly, up to 11-1 at World
NoBiz up from 8.25-1 to 8.85-1 at TheGreek.
StreetSense up from 6.85-1 to 7.05-1 at TheGreek
AGS up to 15.42 at Pinny
Scat Daddy up to 8.91 at Pinny

Here's the current list:

AnyGivSat'day 15.42 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Belgravia 70 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World (9.85 Greek)
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.45 Greek
Dominican 20.5 Greek
Great Hunter 20 World
Hard Spun 14.15 Greek
Liquidity 50 Bodog, World
Nobiz Shobiz 8.85 Greek
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 8.91 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 18.15 TheGreek
Zanjero 37 Bodog

Those odds imply a 6% takeout.
Some better values can be found at EhorseX. Cowtown Cat is being offered at 34-1 and Curlin is 5.5-1, for example.

--Dunbar

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by brockguy

posted this on another one but this is the best of euro odds compilers:
Curlin (5/1) ,
Scat Daddy (6/1) ,
Street Sense (7/1) ,
Nobiz Like Shobiz (9/1) ,
Circular Quay (10/1) ,
Dominican (14/1) ,
Great Hunter (14/1) ,
Notional (14/1) ,
Tiago (16/1) ,
Any Given Saturday (20/1) ,
Hard Spun (20/1) ,
Chelokee (25/1) ,
Cowtown Cat (25/1) ,
Stormello (25/1) ,
Zanjero (25/1) ,
Air Commander (33/1) ,
Deadly Dealer (33/1) ,
Drums of Thunder (33/1) ,
Ketchikan (33/1) ,
King Of The Roxy (33/1)
Sam P (40-1)
Belgravia (50-1)
Cobalt Blue (50-1)
Teuflesberg (66-1)

scat daddy being lower odds then street sense is almost laughable in my opinion, what did street sense do wrong in the bluegrass not to be loved in the derby ? scat daddy reminds me so so much of high fly a few years back, beats up on weak florida competition and will go to the derby and not run a lick, possibly finish last.

[Dunbar]

4/21 update

AGS now up to 16.03-1 (from 15.42) at Pinnacle
Scat Daddy up to 9.13-1 (from (8.91) at Pinnacle
Curlin up to 4.65 at TheGreek (from 4.45; this happened a couple days ago, but I didn't have it updated on the list below)

Here is the updated list. One or more of these future books will probably take its odds down today because of the "preps". TheGreek is sometimes very slow at putting the odds back up again.

AnyGivSat'day 16.03 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Belgravia 70 Bodog
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 20.5 Greek
Great Hunter 20 World
Hard Spun 14.15 Greek
Liquidity 50 Bodog, World
Nobiz Shobiz 8.85 Greek
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 9.13 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 18.15 TheGreek
Zanjero 37 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 5.5%

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

4/22:

TheGreek and Bodog took their Derby future odds down yesterday, fearing I don't know what. TheGreek was back up this morning, but Bodog still doesn't have a futures line posted. I'll wait until tomorrow to update the list.

Of some interest is that Curlin has been bet down below 3-1 at Pinnacle (2.94). Pinnacle acts almost like a parimutual, moving odds quickly to react to bets. TheGreek, in contrast, will often take a stand and be hard to budge. (TheGreek have been between 4.45-1 and 4.65-1 on Curlin since I started watching.) The odds at Pinnacle are probably a rough indicator of what to expect on Derby Day.

I found it also interesting that Street Sense is favored over Curlin in a matchup at TheGreek. It's now:

Curlin +100
Street Sense -125

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

4/24 update

Overall odds are improving. Implied takeout is 2%, but doesn't include a couple of possible horses. (Slew'sTizzy, Imawild, eg)

AGS up from 16-1 to almost 19-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat down from 26.50 to 22.50 at TheGreek
Dominican up from 20.5 to 22.5 at TheGreek
Great Hunter up to 23.4 at Pinny
Hard Spun up to 14.73 at Pinny
NoBiz up to 9-1 at World (still 8.85 at Greek)
Scat Daddy up from 9.13 to over 10-1 at Pinny
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny (Marky must have made his bet!). Best now is 52.50-1 at TheGreek
Street Sense down from 7.05 to 6.85 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 18-1 to 20.5 at TheGreek
Zanzero down from 37-1 to 30-1 at Bodog

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 18.91 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25 Bodog)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 26.5 Greek
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 22.5 Greek
Great Hunter 23.4 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 14.73 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (90.5 Greek)
Sam P 45 Bodog
Scat Daddy 10.08 Pinny (8.85 Greek)
Stormello 75 Pinny (45 Greek)
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 7.05 Greek
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 TheGreek
Zanjero 30 Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 2%

--Dunbar

(Edited to remove Belgravia from list.)
(Edited to correct odds in list on Tiago and Zanjero)

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

scat daddy being lower odds then street sense is almost laughable in my opinion, what did street sense do wrong in the bluegrass not to be loved in the derby ? scat daddy reminds me so so much of high fly a few years back, beats up on weak florida competition and will go to the derby and not run a lick, possibly finish last.

I made the same comparison a few weeks back, but in fairness, high fly didn't run terrible. Coming into the far turn, he was right on the lead but as expected, faded badly down the stretch.
I'm concerned about Scat Daddy doing the same thing. I think he might be at his best around 1/16 mile or so.