5/5: Churchill-Derby Day (Carryover)

[Kasept]

Tough Oaks day card was made more complicated by track/turf conditions Friday resulting in steady stream of surprise horses in various mutuel slots and a second carryover ($200,000+) into Derby Day.. No end in sight to the poor weather either, so it may be more of the same this 'First Saturday in May'..

Failure of Leparoux to get up with 14-1 top tab Gem Sleuth, (arriving late and missing by a head in Friday's 6th), was the difference between getting out whole and a downer on the afternoon.. Fiery Pursuit's upset toppled the P4 as well.. Let's tee it up again on what is a mediocre Derby Day card..

CHURCHILL DOWNS -- DERBY DAY

5th: Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3)

1. #3 Will He Shine 5-1
2. #9 SCR
3. #4 Ah Day 5-1

SCR ADD: #8 Moon's Halo 20-1


6th: Distaff Turf Mile (gr. III), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3)

1. #5 Quite a Bride 4-1
2. #4 SCR
A. #2 Rich Fantasy 12-1
B. #1 SCR

SCR ADD: #6 Magnificent Song 3-1


7th: La Troienne (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.,5f (P3, P4)

1. #3 Silverinyourpocket 9-2
2. #5 Appealing Zophie 3-1
A. #7 Total 6-1
B. #10 Tessa Blue 8-1


8th: Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3)

1. #1 Pussycat Doll 2-1
2. #2 Shaggy Mane 10-1
A. #4 Leah's Secret 12-1
B. #8 Wildcat Bettie B 8-1


9th: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3)

Leaving out Better Talk Now who gets his turf course but isn't great off breaks.. OK for multi-race plays..

1. #6 Einstein 4-1
2. #1 Brilliant 12-1
A. #2 Icy Atlantic 7-2
B. #8 Milk It Mick 5-1


10th: Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3)

See complete write-up: http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12790

1. #7 Street Sense 4-1
2. #18 Any Given Saturday 12-1
A. #8 Hard Spun 15-1
B. #16 Circular Quay 8-1

LONGSHOTS/EXOTICS ADDS:

#3 Zanjero (30-1)
#19 Dominican (20-1)


<$100 P6 Play:

5: 3
6: 2-5
7: 3-5-7-10
8: 1-4-8
9: 1-6
10: 7

1x2x4x3x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96


Good luck!
Steve

[golfer]

Steve, as I wrote in my selections, Einstein's last 2 races were HUGE, do you think he's a lock here, or does he react to those?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

Steve, as I wrote in my selections, Einstein's last 2 races were HUGE, do you think he's a lock here, or does he react to those?

Grass horses do not 'react' to big efforts like dirt horses, and have much longer runs of sustained form as well.. Helen Pitts is perhaps the best lesser-known trainer in the game, knows this horse inside out and knew this was his target immediately following the stunning effort in the Munoz.. He'll be ready for a Gr. I effort..

A soft or yielding course adds some mystery to the situation of course, as Better Talk Now lives for boggy sod but usually needs a race after vacationing.. Brilliant licks his chops for rain as well, and Howard's hedgehog is perfect in three tries this lawn anyway. Look set for big try at bonus tote, with '06 Kent BC score as his model for success.. Icy Atlantic is underlaid at 7-2 ML and is an unknown, to me, with cut in the ground.. Biancone's 20-1Euro ex-pat Danzon relished it soft in Gay Paree '05-'06..

A good edition of this important race..

[golfer]

Thanks, Steve.. Using all you mentioned UNDERNEATH Einstein this looks like a "sack grab" race.

[AeWingnut]

I don't know if there is a track bias at Churchill this week.
I'm looking at the 4th race and think #9 Sentry is an include in the exotics at 30-1. He likes to lead and has worked ok. I am absolutely certain it's the tasty M/L that has swayed me. Should manage to upset someone's trifecta.

[Kasept]

Scratches affect P6 suggestion.. Revised above.. Still $96..

[Kasept]

Inside appears best part of track through 5th.. Off-pace runners on outside struggling to cut into leads in these last four straight sprints.. With Derby the first two turn race on card, there will be no opportunity to see affect on routes, but expect those trying to swing out for the stretch drive in the feature will be hard pressed to catch leaders.. Additional thoughts?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Inside appears best part of track through 5th.. Off-pace runners on outside struggling to cut into leads in these last four straight sprints.. With Derby the first two turn race on card, there will be no opportunity to see affect on routes, but expect those trying to swing out for the stretch drive in the feature will be hard pressed to catch leaders.. Additional thoughts?

See the same thing....track is drying out and may change by post time but inside is place to be right now!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Inside appears best part of track through 5th.. Off-pace runners on outside struggling to cut into leads in these last four straight sprints.. With Derby the first two turn race on card, there will be no opportunity to see affect on routes, but expect those trying to swing out for the stretch drive in the feature will be hard pressed to catch leaders.. Additional thoughts?

As for this, I didn't see it, I thought it played fair today. As far as the rail bias, which I have seen SOME talk about regarding Street Sense, and this might be taken the wrong way but this race was alot of luck by him, more so that Hard Spun kept on going, if he fades not sure the Red Sea parts like it did. No disrespect to the horse because he is by far the best 3 year old today, by many lengths, but everything went this horse's way, ever hole opened when it needed to. I fully expect him to win the Preakness and depending on who goes to the Belmont, quite possibly the best candidate, breeding wise, since Barbaro, and a long time before that.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Scav

As for this, I didn't see it, I thought it played fair today. As far as the rail bias, which I have seen SOME talk about regarding Street Sense, and this might be taken the wrong way but this race was alot of luck by him, more so that Hard Spun kept on going, if he fades not sure the Red Sea parts like it did.

Tom, you're incorrect. As Branch Rickey wrote, 'Luck' is the residue of design...

After the press conference, Haskin and I walked to the backstretch ON THE RAIL. The path was like a paved highway compared to even the 2 path. From the 2 path out, the dirt was pockmarked 6-8 inches deep in spots. Any horse that was trying to rally wide at all was doomed to tire quickly. And all anyone has to do to understand Borel's approach is go back to watch his perfect workout last week and the La Troienne where he gave Helen Pitts' Silverinyourpocket the identical ride he gave Street Sense.

In the workout, the horse showed his tremendous agility hugging the rail through and out of the turn at a high rate of speed. In the Troienne, and later in the Derby, Borel allowed the field to clear before crossing over to get to the rail. From there, he knew in both cases he would have the best chance to rally taking the chance that the lane would be clear when he needed it to be. In Street Sesne's case, he knew he was on the best horse, and brilliantly anticipated having the path he needed clearing the last group before tackling Hard Spun.

Understand that luck isn't the right description of what happens in these cases. Knowing that horses in front of you have already been doing their running and are likely tiring, Borel regularly makes the correct assumption that those horses will begin to bear out, particularly off the turn. Since Street Sense is just doing his real running at that point, he is physically able to hug the rail while the leg-weary ahead of him float away from the inside straightening for the stretch drive.

Borel and Nafzger have known from early on that they were dealing with a special horse, and their approach to win this race since the day after the BC Juvenile was just about perfect. And most importantly, the best part of the Street Sense victory is the fact that this was a tremendous win for racing.. a victory for the forces of good.


(Heading back to the track shortly, but will address the wonderful Hard Spun try seperately in my wrapup, as I spent quite a bit of time with Rick Porter, Larry Jones and Mario Pino as well last night, and have great stuff about their day. They were rightly elated with their colt.)

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tom, you're incorrect. As Branch Rickey wrote, 'Luck' is the residue of design...

After the press conference, Haskin and I walked to the backstretch ON THE RAIL. The path was like a paved highway compared to even the 2 path. From the 2 path out, the dirt was pockmarked 6-8 inches deep in spots. Any horse that was trying to rally wide at all was doomed to tire quickly. And all anyone has to do to understand Borel's approach is go back to watch his perfect workout last week and the La Troienne where he gave Helen Pitts' Silverinyourpocket the identical ride he gave Street Sense.

In the workout, the horse showed his tremendous agility hugging the rail through and out of the turn at a high rate of speed. In the Troienne, and later in the Derby, Borel allowed the field to clear before crossing over to get to the rail. From there, he knew in both cases he would have the best chance to rally taking the chance that the lane would be clear when he needed it to be. In Street Sesne's case, he knew he was on the best horse, and brilliantly anticipated having the path he needed clearing the last group before tackling Hard Spun.

Understand that luck isn't the right description of what happens in these cases. Knowing that horses in front of you have already been doing their running and are likely tiring, Borel regularly makes the correct assumption that those horses will begin to bear out, particularly off the turn. Since Street Sense is just doing his real running at that point, he is physically able to hug the rail while the leg-weary ahead of him float away from the inside straightening for the stretch drive.

Borel and Nafzger have known from early on that they were dealing with a special horse, and their approach to win this race since the day after the BC Juvenile was just about perfect. And most importantly, the best part of the Street Sense victory is the fact that this was a tremendous win for racing.. a victory for the forces of good.


(Heading back to the track shortly, but will address the wonderful Hard Spun try seperately in my wrapup, as I spent quite a bit of time with Rick Porter, Larry Jones and Mario Pino as well last night, and have great stuff about their day. They were rightly elated with their colt.)

All that's true but at the same time if Sedgefield fails to carry his trip beyond the other pressers (Teuf', Liquidiity and Stormello), then we may have had a different result. Maybe Borel still finds his way but his run was never interrupted. To me Sedgefield was the key to Street Sense's trip.

[golfer]

"After the press conference, Haskin and I walked to the backstretch ON THE RAIL. The path was like a paved highway compared to even the 2 path. From the 2 path out, the dirt was pockmarked 6-8 inches deep in spots. Any horse that was trying to rally wide at all was doomed to tire quickly. And all anyone has to do to understand Borel's approach is go back to watch his perfect workout last week and the La Troienne where he gave Helen Pitts' Silverinyourpocket the identical ride he gave Street Sense. "


Which is why Gomez taking Thorn Song in the next race (11th) from 4th on the rail (perfect stalking postiion) to 4 wide in the back stretch was SO AGRAVATING! I realize this was just a maiden race, but it's still important to those who may have (mistakenly) wagered on that SOB!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tom, you're incorrect. As Branch Rickey wrote, 'Luck' is the residue of design...

After the press conference, Haskin and I walked to the backstretch ON THE RAIL. The path was like a paved highway compared to even the 2 path. From the 2 path out, the dirt was pockmarked 6-8 inches deep in spots. Any horse that was trying to rally wide at all was doomed to tire quickly. And all anyone has to do to understand Borel's approach is go back to watch his perfect workout last week and the La Troienne where he gave Helen Pitts' Silverinyourpocket the identical ride he gave Street Sense.

In the workout, the horse showed his tremendous agility hugging the rail through and out of the turn at a high rate of speed. In the Troienne, and later in the Derby, Borel allowed the field to clear before crossing over to get to the rail. From there, he knew in both cases he would have the best chance to rally taking the chance that the lane would be clear when he needed it to be. In Street Sesne's case, he knew he was on the best horse, and brilliantly anticipated having the path he needed clearing the last group before tackling Hard Spun.

Understand that luck isn't the right description of what happens in these cases. Knowing that horses in front of you have already been doing their running and are likely tiring, Borel regularly makes the correct assumption that those horses will begin to bear out, particularly off the turn. Since Street Sense is just doing his real running at that point, he is physically able to hug the rail while the leg-weary ahead of him float away from the inside straightening for the stretch drive.

Borel and Nafzger have known from early on that they were dealing with a special horse, and their approach to win this race since the day after the BC Juvenile was just about perfect. And most importantly, the best part of the Street Sense victory is the fact that this was a tremendous win for racing.. a victory for the forces of good.


(Heading back to the track shortly, but will address the wonderful Hard Spun try seperately in my wrapup, as I spent quite a bit of time with Rick Porter, Larry Jones and Mario Pino as well last night, and have great stuff about their day. They were rightly elated with their colt.)

I know that luck was the wrong 'verb' but the red sea did part for him. I want to make sure I am taking nothing away from Borel or Street Sense, EVEN IF SS went 7 deep he wins this race, in probably more of a gut wretcher though. I think Bruce said it right in that because of the fantastic overhead view of SS, you could literally see the holes opening up at the opportune time. If he is checked just once, does he get by Hard Spun, who ran unbelievable given a 46.2 quarter (Pino gets 47.2, he is your winner)

You walking the rail is interesting and I am going to watch the races again. I recall speed holding, but maybe it was because 2nd and 3rd place horses were closing into dead speed that gave me the illusion of it playing fair.

Borel is a hell of a rider, cagey is probably the best description. And I absolutely LOVE seeing his emotions afterwards. Not sure if he is a KY boy, but I know it is his circuit so it was absolutely great to see.

That being said given the horse will romp in the Preakness, what is the possibility of Bailey coming out of retirement to ride a horse in the Belmont and instruct all jockeys to STICK THE RAIL and try to prevent a TC winner.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tom, you're incorrect. As Branch Rickey wrote, 'Luck' is the residue of design...

After the press conference, Haskin and I walked to the backstretch ON THE RAIL. The path was like a paved highway compared to even the 2 path. From the 2 path out, the dirt was pockmarked 6-8 inches deep in spots. Any horse that was trying to rally wide at all was doomed to tire quickly. And all anyone has to do to understand Borel's approach is go back to watch his perfect workout last week and the La Troienne where he gave Helen Pitts' Silverinyourpocket the identical ride he gave Street Sense.

In the workout, the horse showed his tremendous agility hugging the rail through and out of the turn at a high rate of speed. In the Troienne, and later in the Derby, Borel allowed the field to clear before crossing over to get to the rail. From there, he knew in both cases he would have the best chance to rally taking the chance that the lane would be clear when he needed it to be. In Street Sesne's case, he knew he was on the best horse, and brilliantly anticipated having the path he needed clearing the last group before tackling Hard Spun.

Understand that luck isn't the right description of what happens in these cases. Knowing that horses in front of you have already been doing their running and are likely tiring, Borel regularly makes the correct assumption that those horses will begin to bear out, particularly off the turn. Since Street Sense is just doing his real running at that point, he is physically able to hug the rail while the leg-weary ahead of him float away from the inside straightening for the stretch drive.

Borel and Nafzger have known from early on that they were dealing with a special horse, and their approach to win this race since the day after the BC Juvenile was just about perfect. And most importantly, the best part of the Street Sense victory is the fact that this was a tremendous win for racing.. a victory for the forces of good.


(Heading back to the track shortly, but will address the wonderful Hard Spun try seperately in my wrapup, as I spent quite a bit of time with Rick Porter, Larry Jones and Mario Pino as well last night, and have great stuff about their day. They were rightly elated with their colt.)

or...watch nearly every other mount he has. Come on Steve, this is Calvin Borel we are talking about here not Robbie Albarado...if the same ride was given by albarado one could say that it was definitely 'by design' but with Borel the rail skimming ride is just par for the course...it is his preferred place to be in any given race...

[cal828]

Great and very logical analysis Steve. Makes sense that tiring horses would bear out. Looks like Pino could have solved that problem by hugging the rail with Hard Spun, but I guess he is such a massive horse and probably was tiring and therefore bearing out some too that it was not possible. However, it happened, it was great to see Calvin Borel win. Maybe hugging the rail was part of his repertoire, but not all riders seem to know how to pull it off. A lot of people seemed to hate Bailey, but he was one that was able to do it on a regular basis.