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  #1  
Old 10-23-2007, 09:14 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
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Default Your best bet of the weekend

Let's hear it and why. Favorite, longshot, whatever.

Mine is Gottcha Gold at the 8-1 ML. I know, I know, there's "all kinds of speed in here, he can't win". BS- this horse will make the lead and just refuses to quit. His last three races have been some of the most stunning performances of the year; setting suicidal fractions and should have won all three. Additionally, my instinct says a few of the supposed speed types will take back, except GG and the headstrong Wanderin Boy, who will pack it in at the 1/2 mile pole. When GG gets to the top of the stretch with a 4 length lead, good luck running him down.
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  #2  
Old 10-23-2007, 09:16 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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I can't wait to go back to this thread afterwards, I have some ideas but will come back to it probably tomorrow..Good luck phil

I do this in Byk terms, with it being the whole day

Best Value of the day: Smarty Deb - 30/1
Most Likely Winner: Benny the Bull - 6/1; La Traviata 5/2
Exotics Use: Purim - 20/1
Exotics Use: Shamindan - 20/1
Exotics Use: Old Man Buck - 20/1

In the Juv Fillies, I think Smarty Deb has a heck of a shot to hit the board at her 30/1 ML. People have no idea who these connections are so she will be ignored, she has been at Monmouth for a month and has two works over the track, Monmouth plays like Emerald Downs, a very bouncy type surface. Her Thorograph sheet is very strong, pairing her last two races which should mean a move forward. She is bred to like the distance also which is a question mark for alot of others. I do no like Indian Blessing or Irish Smoke at all, both debuted real fast and have little room for improvement. I think Proud Spell could be tough but Smarty Deb doesn't have to improve 'that' much to contend at a huge number.

In the Turf, I think Shamindan has a shot to upset Dylan Thomas at 20/1. He is lightly raced, getting 5lbs, and he cycled back to his top in his last race. Another pattern that singles a move forward and he doesn't have to improve that much to contend with Dylan Thomas, because of the weight and the probablity of him saving ground.

My two best bet against's of the day are Indian Blessing and Unbridled Belle, both have real ouchy patterns and shouldn't hit the board or any part of the any possible supers. I also am tossing Midnight Lute as he has Sinister Minister written all over him, but won't consider him a bet against because many are already doing it, from what I have heard from some of my friends and other boards.

Last edited by Scav : 10-24-2007 at 10:56 AM.
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  #3  
Old 10-23-2007, 09:23 PM
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philcski philcski is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I can't wait to go back to this thread afterwards, I have some ideas but will come back to it probably tomorrow..Good luck phil
Absolutely. That's part of the fun. But the thing I love the most about the BC is shows who really has a pair and who doesn't. Those that do, for example a LOT of people on this board last year with Street Sense in the Juvy, reap the benefits, and the chalkplayers who chase the Henny Hughes of the world get their money sent up in flames.
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  #4  
Old 10-23-2007, 10:06 PM
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I spotted Smokey Stover at Del Mar last year and hit him in the Sunshine Millions sprint, but I am jumping on Greg's Gold Saturday.
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  #5  
Old 10-23-2007, 10:11 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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I think Hysterical Lady clears even with the extreme post.If she gets caught its at the shadow of the wire
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  #6  
Old 10-23-2007, 10:38 PM
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Linny Linny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo
I think Hysterical Lady clears even with the extreme post.If she gets caught its at the shadow of the wire
If it rains, I love her! Lear's Princess at 6-1 is pretty inviting.

I like Maryfield in the FM Sprint as well.

Lahudood likes FIRM grass and I am worried about her only having one recorded work since the Flower Bowl.
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  #7  
Old 10-23-2007, 10:17 PM
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Maryfield in Filly and Mare Sprint. I think "The King of Rock 'n' Roll " can nail the front speed late...15-1
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  #8  
Old 10-23-2007, 10:32 PM
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declansharbor declansharbor is offline
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I'm going with Lahudood on this one. K mac's high on this one. She'll be ready to pounce on the speed at a very square price. Loved her last out, (damn me for not betting her), and if she duplicates an effort like that, we cash heavy. We will be keying her in all three tri spots.
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  #9  
Old 10-24-2007, 09:51 AM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geeker2
Maryfield in Filly and Mare Sprint. I think "The King of Rock 'n' Roll " can nail the front speed late...15-1
I'm on board with that. She'd be a bargain at 8-1.
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  #10  
Old 10-23-2007, 09:23 PM
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Hickory Hill Hoff Hickory Hill Hoff is offline
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Lear's Princess (Distaff) 6-1 ml.

I know it's a tough field, but just think she's improving more and more each start. With Hystericalady parked out in no man's land & both Indian Vale and Unbridled Belle both being "in and outers", she looks the best. Ginger Punch supplemented doesn't scare me and doubt she wants going this long.
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  #11  
Old 10-24-2007, 10:32 AM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Wild Gams in the F/M Sprint & Benny the Bull in the Sprint.
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  #12  
Old 10-24-2007, 11:01 AM
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SundayStar SundayStar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek
Wild Gams in the F/M Sprint & Benny the Bull in the Sprint.
i like both of these. park avenue ball too.



wild gams....... i just love saying her name
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  #13  
Old 10-24-2007, 11:06 AM
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Sightseek Sightseek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SundayStar
i like both of these. park avenue ball too.



wild gams....... i just love saying her name
I'm tossing Dream Rush and will probably box her with Maryfield & Miss Macy Sue actually.
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  #14  
Old 10-24-2007, 11:44 AM
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my miss storm cat my miss storm cat is offline
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Jeremy.

(As far as those already mentioned, I do like both Maryfield and Wild Gams too.....)
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  #15  
Old 10-24-2007, 12:44 PM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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30/1 on precious kitten, as honest a racehorse as there is these days, seems awfully nice.

8/1 on hystericalady, running on dirt, is like stealing.
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  #16  
Old 10-24-2007, 11:00 AM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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i'll go with West Point's Awesome Gem - horse is training great , if the pace is right he can mow them down in the stretch at 30/1
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  #17  
Old 10-25-2007, 09:27 AM
Port Conway Lane Port Conway Lane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Let's hear it and why. Favorite, longshot, whatever.

Mine is Gottcha Gold at the 8-1 ML. I know, I know, there's "all kinds of speed in here, he can't win". BS- this horse will make the lead and just refuses to quit. His last three races have been some of the most stunning performances of the year; setting suicidal fractions and should have won all three. Additionally, my instinct says a few of the supposed speed types will take back, except GG and the headstrong Wanderin Boy, who will pack it in at the 1/2 mile pole. When GG gets to the top of the stretch with a 4 length lead, good luck running him down.
Best Bet is rain. The Mr.Prospectors move up tomorrow. Gottcha Gold,Wanderin Boy and Forefathers. I'll add Park Avenue Ball to those three and key Gottcha Gold and Wanderin Boy in the top slot and the others boxed with the remainder of the field in the super. $21.60 total.
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  #18  
Old 10-25-2007, 10:17 AM
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My best bet is Timarwa.
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  #19  
Old 10-25-2007, 11:28 AM
outofthebox outofthebox is offline
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My best bet or value play will be Balance in the distaff at 20-1ml. At first look it looks like i'm really reaching here, but on a day like BC that's what im looking for, a forgotten horse.
The last time Balance ran two turns on a conventional dirt track(or wet) she was the winner of the Gr.1 Santa Margarita at the same distance of the distaff. Before that she was an easy winner of the La Canada on a wet track. She then hooked Nashoba's Key on synthetic tracks at Hollywood and Del Mar and didnt discrace herself against a superior synthetic runner. Her last race at Belmont is not as bad as it looks on paper . She blew the start then was prematurely sent very wide on the final turn. She was 3-1 that day and will be 20-1 or better against the same horses today.
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  #20  
Old 10-25-2007, 12:31 PM
rontheman1964 rontheman1964 is offline
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My prediction??? Nebraska gets drilled again by 40 points or more and Callahan still thinks he is doing an excellent job. All the while he is working on his resume on the sidelines. Is there a worse football coach anywhere???
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