Who will be burning money?

[JJP]

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by JJP

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

Nice work here JJP. I'm in total agreeance here with Discreet Cat. Not only do I not envision him not hitting the board, I see him finishing in the bottom half of this field. At least that's how the race unfolds in my mind.

[Indian Charlie]

i must be the only person alive who thinks dylan thomas is a sucker bet.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i must be the only person alive who thinks dylan thomas is a sucker bet.

No, i'm with you. Although he is the best horse in the race, and should just toy with these, the Arc stat is hard to overlook and now the turf as gone soft, i don't think he has any shot at all. In fact, i don't think he will even run. They have too much to lose with him. Why risk it when he has already proved himself to be a very, very good horse this year.

I don't think the fav in the Juvie fillies is a good bet, either. There is so much pace in the race. Indian Blessing looked out on her last legs in the last furlong last out, she is going further this time and with more pace pushing her harder. I think she is dreadful value. A closer should win this one. Izarra would be my guess.

[brockguy]

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

The ground was only just on the soft side of good for the Arc. Maybe even a bit quicker than that so the jocks were reporting.

It will be european soft come the off time of the turf on Saturday. 100% chance of rain most of Saturday afternoon. I'm 75% sure they won't even run him, he has far too much to lose.

Discreet Kitty is interesting. On his Cigar Mile form he will win this doing handstands, but at 6/4 you have to oppose him. I don't think he is a big price at all. If he wins, he wins but currently, you have to oppose him. Gottcha Gold is big value ew in my opinion.

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by JJP

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

I have to agree with you on Discreet Cat, if he wins, good for him but he wont get any of my money. I also have a big question mark beside the horses coming out of the Champagne, yeah they won and ran 2nd but both of the favs, came out of the race with injuries, so did they beat nice horses or horses with problems? In the F&M Turf, Nasobas Key is the one I would love to see win, but soft turf is a major concern and really she hasnt been going up agianst world beaters, not that that is her fault, but it raises major red flags. In the Distaff, I am just amazed how little respect Octave is getting, she is just a mare that tries everytime and the fast pace should suit her as they come back to her and she grinds them down. Teamate is another one that wouldnt surprise me if she ran a nice race. In the Mile, Ex.Art has ahorrible post but he is heads above the others but, chalk,chalk, chalk, I like several in here. Jeremy is one that has had several nice works, Purim is my bomb that I will be playing also. In the Classic, Street Sense all the way! I think Curlin will be right there, but I think Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun will hook up and LR will show his usually dislike for rating and have nothing left for the finish. The only one no one is talking about is Any Given Sunday, and I really cant find any reason to knock his last 2 races. My 2 longshots in the Classic is Tiago and Awsome Gem.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by PPerfectfan

The only one no one is talking about is Any Given Sunday, and I really cant find any reason to knock his last 2 races.

The fact that he hasn't run a winning race at 10f, maybe? That he bypassed a chance to try 10f against a decent field to go 9f against allowance horses and didn't beat them very impressively? That he was getting weight from Curlin in the Haskell?

Not saying that I feel this way, just imagining what might be said.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The fact that he hasn't run a winning race at 10f, maybe? That he bypassed a chance to try 10f against a decent field to go 9f against allowance horses and didn't beat them very impressively? That he was getting weight from Curlin in the Haskell?

Not saying that I feel this way, just imagining what might be said.

i'm not liking any givens chances today either.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The fact that he hasn't run a winning race at 10f, maybe? That he bypassed a chance to try 10f against a decent field to go 9f against allowance horses and didn't beat them very impressively? That he was getting weight from Curlin in the Haskell?

Not saying that I feel this way, just imagining what might be said.

Any Given Saturday was so sharp for the Haskell there's no way Curlin was beating him that day. As for his 10f record, he tried that once and had the 18 hole. I'd hardly say the evidence is against him at this point.

[Danzig]

in the arlington million a few years ago, a top euro ran even tho it wasn't his best distance. yet he was felt to be so much better then the field, there was no doubt he'd win.
he didn't win. finished fourth.

ground and distance matters a great deal with turfers. dylan thomas is good, but they would have to have doubts. go in with too little respect for the competition, and you may end up wishing you hadn't been so confident in your own chances. i wouldn't be surprised at all if he scratched.