Scav's thoughts on today

Scav · #1 10-27-2007, 09:47 PM

1) While I can't stand Todd Schrup, he and Bray did a good job yet again on the in house simucast feed. I just don't understand why they can't do it all the time

2) Kenny Mayne is ESPN horse racing "And I'm wearing Reeboks" when talking about mud caulks

3) I agree with 'The Bid' about running George Washington, this is what happens when you take a horse out of element and put him within the harshest conditions.

4) Curlin accomplished something that I think we will never see again (echoing DrugS opinion)....To go from a maiden winner to Classic winner in a year is truly amazing, hopefully we can enjoy him next year (Arlington Million please)

5) I am taking great pride in not shuting up about Shamdinan running huge, at the largest priced horse to hit the board today. He should be a contender in the Million next year, please let me take what little pride I have left in this.

6) From what I can tell, Monmouth was a great host, minus the weather. More details to come from people that were on-track. I am hoping to go to Santa Anita next year for the BC, can't wait to see a race down the hill there

7) Looking forward to the addition of the turf sprint next year, the marathon idea is pretty dumb though

8) Yet again, the BC yields huge payoffs if you are right. An 8/5, 2/1, 11/1 pick three paid $168, and an 8/5,2/1,11/1,5/2 pick four paid $1,032. Amazing numbers, and it shows that you can play $60 pick three tickets and $200 pick four tickets and score big, unlike most days in racing when you really can't go about $20 on a pick three to make sure you are profitable, or $60 on a pick four.

9) Midnight Lute might be your 2008 Breeder's Cup Classic winner, ok, maybe not that but the Mile winner if he gains Graded status, which I don't know how that goes down

10) THERE WAS NO BIAS today, if anything it was a stalker/closer bias and not a speed bias.

westcoastinvader · #2 10-27-2007, 09:54 PM

Nice summary, Scavs.

Just a random reflection is that I was very surprised by the low trifecta payout with Dylan Thomas off the board, and a 25-1 shot finishing 2nd.

Yes, the 2nd and 3rd favorites were 1st and 3rd, but I woulda thought with the .90 Dylan Thomas out of it and the longshot 2nd, it would have produced more than a $282.70 trifecta payout.

I didn't play the race, but sure noted.

sumitas · #3 10-27-2007, 10:00 PM

Good recap except for #10

...I didn't know they'd have a marathon next year. I think it's great to give the stamina horses something to run for besides having a lot of sprints and little distance. As a matter of fact #7 is shaky too.

King Glorious · #4 10-27-2007, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

4) Curlin accomplished something that I think we will never see again (echoing DrugS opinion)....To go from a maiden winner to Classic winner in a year is truly amazing, hopefully we can enjoy him next year (Arlington Million please)

We had Tiznow do that in 2000. We damn near had Bernardini do it last year. So that's almost three times in eight years. It is a huge feat but I woulnd't be surprised to see it happen some more. The reason why is simple. Look at next year. How many of the top older horses and top 3yo's from this year will be coming back next season? Say Curlin, Hard Spun, Street Sense, AGS and Lawyer Ron are all retired. That almost makes War Pass the favorite for next year's Classic already. And more and more, we are seeing top horses get started later and later. This year, Curlin. Last year, Bernardini. I think Rock Hard Ten made his debut as a 3yo in 2004. It's going to happen again because so many top horses that would be contenders that next year are gone at the end of the season.

Scav · #5 10-27-2007, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

We had Tiznow do that in 2000. We damn near had Bernardini do it last year. So that's almost three times in eight years. It is a huge feat but I woulnd't be surprised to see it happen some more. The reason why is simple. Look at next year. How many of the top older horses and top 3yo's from this year will be coming back next season? Say Curlin, Hard Spun, Street Sense, AGS and Lawyer Ron are all retired. That almost makes War Pass the favorite for next year's Classic already. And more and more, we are seeing top horses get started later and later. This year, Curlin. Last year, Bernardini. I think Rock Hard Ten made his debut as a 3yo in 2004. It's going to happen again because so many top horses that would be contenders that next year are gone at the end of the season.

Tiznow or Bernardini were not FIRST TIME STARTER MAIDENS to BC Classic winner in the same year.

King Glorious · #6 10-27-2007, 10:08 PM

I know Bernardini wasn't. That's why I said we damn near did. Are u sure Tiznow wasn't though?

Scav · #7 10-27-2007, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know Bernardini wasn't. That's why I said we damn near did. Are u sure Tiznow wasn't though?

Almost positive, DrugS if he reads this thread will confirm for me

King Glorious · #8 10-27-2007, 10:11 PM

I just looked. Tiznow did not race as a 2yo in 1999. He made his first career start on April 22 of his 3yo season and didn't break his maiden till his third start on May 31.

The Indomitable DrugS · #9 10-27-2007, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Almost positive, DrugS if he reads this thread will confirm for me

Tiznow didn't break his maiden until like April of his 3yo season. I believe he ran 5th or 6th in his debut.

Curlin's debut win was remarkable - but I discussed it because it came for another trainer - one without a reputation for playing the game on the edge.

To me, it proved he was a giant talent...and certainly squashed any doubts that he wouldn't be a superstar for a less aggressive trainer.

Scav · #10 10-27-2007, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

5) I am taking great pride in not shuting up about Shamdinan running huge, at the largest priced horse to hit the board today. He should be a contender in the Million next year, please let me take what little pride I have left in this.

I just realized that this is incorrect because of gales' rat Awesome Gem nosin me for largest odds to hit the board, I can't get anything right

herkhorse · #11 10-27-2007, 10:13 PM

1) Nice call on Shamdinan, too bad he didn't win!

2) Curlin is an amazing horse, it's taken me too long to admit this!

3) Hard Spun is one fast horse that gives his all everytime, even when overmatched.

4) Ginger Punch- What a gutsy win on a rail that was not the best place to be. Histericalady's game second was maybe more impressive given her trip.

5) Race 5: What was Trevor Denman watching? He made it sound like Pyro had a chance to catch War Pass!

PPerfectfan · #12 10-27-2007, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

1) Nice call on Shamdinan, too bad he didn't win!

2) Curlin is an amazing horse, it's taken me too long to admit this!

3) Hard Spun is one fast horse that gives his all everytime, even when overmatched.

4) Ginger Punch- What a gutsy win on a rail that was not the best place to be. Histericalady's game second was maybe more impressive given her trip.

5) Race 5: What was Trevor Denman watching? He made it sound like Pyro had a chance to catch War Pass!

Your so right about Ginger Punch, boy it just pissed her off when HL came over on her, she just put that head down and got the win. Nice. Hard Spun, boy could you ask for a more honest horse??? I dont think so. Curlin, never been on his bandwagon, but Damn, that was a race. The only race that I was totally right about was the F&M Sprint. I hit the exacta, but boy I would have loved to have had MM hang on for the win at that kind of price. And that dang Macy Sue beat out BT for my tri.

I also had WPS on Maryfield and MM. I had the F&M Turf but that was just WPS. I was wayyyy off on the Juvy/Juvy Fillies.

_ed_ · #13 10-28-2007, 06:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

5) Race 5: What was Trevor Denman watching? He made it sound like Pyro had a chance to catch War Pass!

Good call, I thought the same thing. Laughed out loud when he said "this is a race in two!". Thought his calls were ok for most of the day though.

Curlin was so brilliant today, amazing performance.

My other 2 favourite runs of the day were Midnight Lute with his brilliant run from way back in the Sprint and Octave, who I thought had no chance of hitting the board from where she was.

golfer · #14 10-28-2007, 01:45 PM

My thoughts on the Breeders Cup:

The extreme weather and track conditions made this normally challenging day EXTREMELY DIFFICULT from a handicapping perspective. For all who managed to make money yesterday, I tip my hat to you. While I was close on a few races (a neck here, nose there), the track condition was very difficult to read. I do believe there was a speed bias early in the day. I think Monmouth tried to even the track out, but due to the weather had no choice but to compact it so it played similarly to the way it had throughout their original meet. Just because one horse was able to close in a few of the races, doesn't mean there was no bias. With the fractions being set in some of the races, on a "normal" track, there would have been many closers running at the wire. The 2 juvenile races, which were won by speedy favorites, had very fast fractions, and instead of slowing down mid stretch, they were both still many lengths clear. Now, both of these horses (Indian Blessing and War Pass) may turn out to be superior horses, but they were both tiring in their previous races at a slightly shorter distance. After the rain stopped, and the track dried out a bit, it played more evenly.
Just one man's opinion.

King Glorious · #15 10-28-2007, 03:09 PM

That's only if u believe that both horses were tiring in their last races. I didn't think they were. There is a difference between slowing down because u are tiring and slowing down because u are eight in front and the rider is not riding them out to the line while the ones from behind are driving down the lane. Didn't Pyro close in the Juvenile to be second to War Pass again? Suggesting that War Pass should have slowed down enough for Pyro to beat him isn't real. This was the third time War Pass has beaten Pyro. It wasn't a fluke. Pyro was the second best horse in the race. And the horse that beat him is a horse that had beaten him twice before. That's legitimate to me. Backseat Rhythm came on to be third in the Juvenile Fillies. The winner was the same horse that had beaten her handily in the Frizette. How is that not legit?

GPK · #16 10-27-2007, 11:29 PM

My one thought for the day....

I continue to love Mountaineer and Balmoral Park. Without these two fine establishments, I think I would never cash a ticket.

The Indomitable DrugS · #17 10-27-2007, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

My one thought for the day....

I continue to love Mountaineer and Balmoral Park. Without these two fine establishments, I think I would never cash a ticket.

Balmoral?