Churchill Downs - 7/15 - Race 6 - 2yo fillies - STEAM

MOSTBEAUTIFULSTORM is the steam in here...she has been working extremly well in the mornings for top trainer Romans, which included outworking several sets of babies....she is fast and you can expect her to break on top (she is good from the gates) and be VERY tough to reel in....she appears to be the goods and is the play in here if the price cooperates..

TALETOBETOLD is the best filly with racing experience and should be on the board under Leparoux....although Mostbeautifulstorm yields experience to this one she is simply faster and better, but Taletobetold is the most likely to complete the exacta...

NOLA STAR has also displayed ability in the mornings, including having outworked both colts that ran 2nd and 4th for McPeek on Friday in maiden $80K competition....this filly is good enough to make an impact in here but the fact is that she drew HORRIBLY and McPeek is a below average trainer with firsters.....talent may be there but not worth betting to win with the obstacles she'll have to overcome.....still play underneath....

DONNIE'S MADAM is an interesting longshot in here, as she now has two races under her belt (albeit subpar performnaces)....she actually has displayed some ability in the A.M. and deserves to be played in EX and TRI wagers at a big price.....

GALWAY LASS is another filly that has really worked well in the mornings despite being a bit funky....her pedigree and looks indicate that she should want more ground, but if she can break okay and settle in a comfortable position, she seems to have the ability to make up quite a bit of ground on these in the stretch...not crazy about Vance firsters or Victory Gallop firsters but she has some ability...use underneath....

Lastly, SMOKIN' SPIRIT has yet to be set down seriously in the mornings at CD and is a serious sleeper in here....must respect Carroll and use this one underneath...

They will all chase MOSTBEAUTIFULSTORM unless she breaks bad or folds under the pressures of being a first-time starter, but she is the goods in the race and has a win-early pedigree and a very good conditioner to win in her debut....I think TALETOBETOLD experinece should land her at least second and definately third in here, but the other four are good enough and certainly need to be used in the place and show spots....

Good Luck!

[zippyneedsawin]

Thanks for the info!! Your STEAM has been SMOKING!! Good luck tomorrow!

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Very good write up Joel. A good read. Definitely appreciate the info about how horses look in the a.m. Best of luck if you play!

[PSH]

Thanks Joel.
Excellent write-up.

Guess we may have a sloppy track today.
Mostbeautifulstorm it is......

PSH

[Unbridled]

he's correct about Mostbeautiful. Ive been waiting a while for this one to run.

[Betsy]

Hopefully Indywindy will run well; she's by Indy out of Banshee Breeze's full sister. Have you ever heard of a worse name than Indy Windy, though? Makes it almost hard for me to root for her......

Thanks Joel. I love your top selection, but what do you think if the track comes up muddy?

Originally Posted by Betsy

Hopefully Indywindy will run well; she's by Indy out of Banshee Breeze's full sister. Have you ever heard of a worse name than Indy Windy, though? Makes it almost hard for me to root for her......

Yeah, but wait until she goes long..and also, Naftger is not great with babies....might be talented enough to make a late run, but can't use her because she will probably be well out of it early on and I can't endorse that running style for first-tme starters.....might be a nice filly for the future though...

Originally Posted by PSH

Thanks Joel.
Excellent write-up.

Guess we may have a sloppy track today.
Mostbeautifulstorm it is......

PSH

No...nice hot day here in Louisville and that track drys well....it is fast but watch for a bias because these are the days when there is usually a bias because the dirt integrity was probably washed out and dried quick with the rain ti hit weather, and it could make for dead areas of the track....watch for the first few races and pay attention...

EVERYBODY WATCH RACE #2...if Angel Flying runs well than give extra credit to GALWAY LASS in the 2YO filly race because Angel Flying just out-worked Galway Lass last week by a couple of lengths and the work appeared to be a good one ofr both of them....use AF's effort as a uage to go by....one is coming off a layoff and the other is a firster - so that should guage Vance's ability to have them ready off the shlef....

MBS is not as good as I thought she was, unless something happened to her...I'll find out hopefully before that camps rolls onto New York....still made a little cash on a savor, but all-in-all it was a subpar baby race profit...