Derby Grid/Graded Earnings

[Kasept]

1 Pyro 1,020,000
2 Tale of Ekati 738,000
3 Colonel John 720,000
4 Gayego 640,000
5 Big Brown 600,000

6 Z Humor 579,000
7 Monba 515,000
8 Court Vision 331,872
9 Z Fortune 329,000
10 Adriano 310,000

11 Recapturetheglory 300,000
12 Smooth Air 290,000
13 Cool Coal Man 212,767
14 Anak Nakal 212,216
15 Eight Belles (f) 210,000

16 Cowboy Cal 207,660
17 Behindatthebar 204,500
18 Visionaire 202,500
19 Big Truck 194,500
20 Bob Black Jack 180,000

21 Denis of Cork 165,000
22 Halo Najib $157,996
23 Indian Sun $154,000
24 Tomcito $151,292

[ateamstupid]

Isn't Denis of Cork unlikely to go? Looks like I was premature in saying Halo Najib was out.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Isn't Denis of Cork unlikely to go? Looks like I was premature in saying Halo Najib was out.

I have a tough time believing that there won't be at least one or two uncertains that are feeling a lot more certain right now. I'll be surprised if Porter doesn't have a filly in here. Why wouldn't you run a horse like Anak Nakal either? What the hell else is he going to do? A 95 Beyer is going to get second in this Derby and possibly first if Big Brown doesn't fire.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I have a tough time believing that there won't be at least one or two uncertains that are feeling a lot more certain right now. I'll be surprised if Porter doesn't have a filly in here. Why wouldn't you run a horse like Anak Nakal either? What the hell else is he going to do? A 95 Beyer is going to get second in this Derby and possibly first if Big Brown doesn't fire.

wont the bluegrass come back a decent number.....
my calculations have it being in the 99-104 range

[ArlJim78]

question for historians, whats the lowest beyer to win the derby? whatever it is the record may be threatened this year.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

question for historians, whats the lowest beyer to win the derby? whatever it is the record may be threatened this year.

giacomos had to be pretty low

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

question for historians, whats the lowest beyer to win the derby? whatever it is the record may be threatened this year.

Giacomo with 100

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Giacomo with 100

Looks like "under" that.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Isn't Denis of Cork unlikely to go? Looks like I was premature in saying Halo Najib was out.

altho denis' owner cancelled many of the rooms he had reserved, he didn't sound like the trip was completely out of the question. i'd imagine his horse will ship to churchill and they'll play it by ear.

as for the jones fillies, i now look for eight belles to run on oaks day. and since she's their best, i'd be surprised to see any of his others run on saturday.

as for the bluegrass beyers...i don't know that it matters. i'll be shocked if that race is in any way a key to the derby.

[IrishofNDMan]

Doesn't the owner still def. want to bring Denis of Cork, he just doesn't think he will have the earnings? I think if he can get in he will def. be in the Derby.

[SniperSB23]

Would fourth in the Lexington bump Tomcito ahead of Denis of Cork?

[hockey2315]

Looks like Denis should come in at number 20.

[Scav]

1 War Pass Nick Zito $1,470,000
2 Pyro Steve Asmussen $1,020,000
3 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg $738,000
4 Colonel John Eoin Harty $720,000
5 Gayego Paulo Lobo $640,000
6 Big Brown Richard Dutrow $600,000
7 Z Humor Bill Mott $579,000
8 Monba Todd Pletcher $500,000
9 Court Vision Bill Mott $331,872
10 Z Fortune Steve Asmussen $329,000
11 Adriano Graham Motion $310,000
12 Recapturetheglory $300,000
13 Smooth Air Benny Stutts $290,000
14 Cool Coal Man Nick Zito $212,767
15 Anak Nakal Nick Zito $212,216
16 Eight Belles Larry Jones $210,000
17 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher $207,660
18 Visionaire Michael Matz $202,500
19 Big Truck Barclay Tagg $194,500
20 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff $180,000

Denis of Cork David Carroll $165,000
Halo Najib Dale Romans $157,996
Tomcito Dante Zanelli $151,292 *** (LEX)
Atoned Todd Pletcher $140,000 *** (Lex)


So this is the prospected field, with the Lexington possibly causing Bob's Blackjack and Big Truck to get excluded, IF Tomcito/Atoned run 1-2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Scav

So this is the prospected field, with the Lexington possibly causing Bob's Blackjack and Big Truck to get excluded, IF Tomcito/Atoned run 1-2

They can finish:

1. Behindatthebar/Racecar/etc..
2. Atoned
3. Tomcito

and the Visionaire would be in trouble too..

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Kasept

They can finish:

1. Behindatthebar/Racecar/etc..
2. Atoned
3. Tomcito

and the Visionaire would be in trouble too..

By my math, Visionaire looks pretty safe, I don't see any way that anyone in the Lexington could get to 202k in graded earnings. But those bottom two look to be in trouble, and quite honestly, who is to say that if Salute the Sarge runs big that they wont go, all this Derby needs is Nick Hines running around to be an official circus.

This is obviously dependent on those 'X's not running, because then Visionaire could be in trouble then, especially if Racecar wins, and Atoned gets second....

[Alan07]

Expect alot of the Derby excluders to run in the Preakness

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Scav

By my math, Visionaire looks pretty safe, I don't see any way that anyone in the Lexington could get to 202k in graded earnings. But those bottom two look to be in trouble, and quite honestly, who is to say that if Salute the Sarge runs big that they wont go, all this Derby needs is Nick Hines running around to be an official circus.

This is obviously dependent on those 'X's not running, because then Visionaire could be in trouble then, especially if Racecar wins, and Atoned gets second....

According to DRF, winner's share of the Lexington Stakes is $201,500. This means Racecar Rhapsody and Behindatthebar, as well as Tomcito and Atoned could bump Visionaire (like Steve wrote).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Unstable

According to DRF, winner's share of the Lexington Stakes is $201,500. This means Racecar Rhapsody and Behindatthebar, as well as Tomcito and Atoned could bump Visionaire (like Steve wrote).

I don't think it is possible for him to be bumped by three though if Salute the Sarge doesn't run. Worst case he would only be passed by the winner and Tomcito with a second place finish. Tomcito couldn't pass him with a 3rd place finish nor could anyone else.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Unstable

According to DRF, winner's share of the Lexington Stakes is $201,500. This means Racecar Rhapsody and Behindatthebar, as well as Tomcito and Atoned could bump Visionaire (like Steve wrote).

yeah I am wrong, I transposed Byk's number on the thing, I thought it was 165, but it is 195.....

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Kasept

They can finish:

1. Behindatthebar/Racecar/etc..
2. Atoned
3. Tomcito

and the Visionaire would be in trouble too..

Thanks, Steve, for the great news that the third of my four Future bets might not make it into the Derby. After making Future bets for the first time this year, I think I'll go back to not making 'em (too much unnecessary stress).