Pricing the Derby

[JJP]

We don't know who all will be there, but here's my take on it now:

Big Brown 2-1; hard to argue against his favoritism
Pyro 5-1; the Blue Grass meant nothing. His Risen Star is still the second best prep performance. He also has won over the track.
Gayego 7-1; yes, he SHOULD be bet more than Colonel John because he just may be better on real dirt than synthetic, and he has won w/out going wire to wire.
Colonel John 9-1; think his closing run was aided by the surface; lets see him translate his form to real dirt.
Tale of Ekati 15-1; thought he really benefitted from the pace but he has some of the characteristics needed (good 2YO; now rounding into form).
War Pass 15-1 ran a superior race to Tale of Ekati in the Wood but figures to have considerable pace pressure. Breeding suggests hes a miler
Big Truck, Cool Coal Man and El Gato Mallo 20-1--I think Big Truck is a little intruiging for the tri; Cool Coal Man had a good trip in the FOY but has won over the CD track.
Cowboy Cal, Momba, Z Fortune Dennis of Cork, Atoned 25-1
Adriano, Recapturetheglory, Visionaire 30-1

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by JJP

We don't know who all will be there, but here's my take on it now:

Big Brown 2-1; hard to argue against his favoritism
Pyro 5-1; the Blue Grass meant nothing. His Risen Star is still the second best prep performance. He also has won over the track.
Gayego 7-1; yes, he SHOULD be bet more than Colonel John because he just may be better on real dirt than synthetic, and he has won w/out going wire to wire.
Colonel John 9-1; think his closing run was aided by the surface; lets see him translate his form to real dirt.
Tale of Ekati 15-1; thought he really benefitted from the pace but he has some of the characteristics needed (good 2YO; now rounding into form).
War Pass 15-1 ran a superior race to Tale of Ekati in the Wood but figures to have considerable pace pressure. Breeding suggests hes a miler
Big Truck, Cool Coal Man and El Gato Mallo 20-1--I think Big Truck is a little intruiging for the tri; Cool Coal Man had a good trip in the FOY but has won over the CD track.
Cowboy Cal, Momna, Z Fotune Dennis of Cork, Atoned 25-1
Adriano, Recapturetheglory, Visionaire 30-1

Ok . . . Col. John Will be lower than Gayego and possibly Pyro. . . Big Truck will be way higher than 20-1. . . El Gato Malo isn't going to the derby. . . Neither is Atoned. . .

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

We don't know who all will be there, but here's my take on it now:

Big Brown 2-1; hard to argue against his favoritism
Pyro 5-1; the Blue Grass meant nothing. His Risen Star is still the second best prep performance. He also has won over the track.
Gayego 7-1; yes, he SHOULD be bet more than Colonel John because he just may be better on real dirt than synthetic, and he has won w/out going wire to wire.
Colonel John 9-1; think his closing run was aided by the surface; lets see him translate his form to real dirt.
Tale of Ekati 15-1; thought he really benefitted from the pace but he has some of the characteristics needed (good 2YO; now rounding into form).
War Pass 15-1 ran a superior race to Tale of Ekati in the Wood but figures to have considerable pace pressure. Breeding suggests hes a miler
Big Truck, Cool Coal Man and El Gato Mallo 20-1--I think Big Truck is a little intruiging for the tri; Cool Coal Man had a good trip in the FOY but has won over the CD track.
Cowboy Cal, Momba, Z Fortune Dennis of Cork, Atoned 25-1
Adriano, Recapturetheglory, Visionaire 30-1

if cowboy cal is 25-1 i will put every penny i was planning on using for pick 3-4 on him to win....i was thinking 10-15-1 on cowboy

[SOREHOOF]

I think Big Brown will start a little higher, and Monba,War Pass,Tale of Ekati a little lower.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I think Big Brown will start a little higher, and Monba,War Pass,Tale of Ekati a little lower.

no way........................ big brown is 2-1 at the most, i could see him at 8-5

[hockey2315]

I refuse to believe that people will be stupid enough to bet down Big Brown to 8-5. Can't wait til he draws post 20.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I refuse to believe that people will be stupid enough to bet down Big Brown to 8-5. Can't wait til he draws post 20.

i think they are...

the connections are so open that they think he is a freak. kent says its the best horse he has ever rode.

pyro ran bad, war pass did not win his last prep.
im telling you i think he could be 8-5, and i'd love that

[SOREHOOF]

Too much $$ in the win pool. Everyone is going to be looking for the next G-Mo to pop at a huge price. He might win but 3-1 is a heavy fav in this race. I hope War Pass goes off that high. If he's not taken seriously enough he might get an easier lead than everyone thinks. It would be easy to take a shot at 15-1. He might even stay around long enough to hit the board. He showed some guts finally in the Wood.

[hi_im_god]

empire maker was the biggest recent favorite i can recall and he was 5-2.

anyone who thinks there is someone in this field with more steam than him going into the 2003 derby is wrong.

bb is talented and will do big things. but 2 horses out of 56 have won off 2 starts at 3 and both of them had more foundation at 2.

my guess is despite street sense last year, people figure this out.

7-2. maybe even 4-1