Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[SniperSB23]

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

Where's your proof of that? Nakatani rode Colonel John last time and has ridden him in four of six starts. That doesn't sound like Gomez ditching him to me..

The horse is a winner with a versatile running style and awesome distance pedigree. As for his figures, if you take all synthetic numbers at face value, then I don't know what to tell you, and it isn't like 95 is far off what it'll take to win here. To me, the only one that has run a two-turn race significantly faster at three is Big Brown, because I'm not buying that AR Derby fig.

Do I think he offers value? Hell no. But if you watch the horse run, look at his pedigree and don't think it screams "Derby horse", then I think you're mistaken. I wouldn't bet him to win, but he's definitely one of the more likely winners.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Where's your proof of that? Nakatani rode Colonel John last time and has ridden him in four of six starts. That doesn't sound like Gomez ditching him to me..

I don't know if Gomez could get the mount back now if he wanted to but he undoubtedly chose to ride Court Vision in the Wood over Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby:

Another person who was thrilled when he heard about the work was Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson, who stands by last month’s decision to ride Court Vision instead of Colonel John.

“With Colonel John, you’re dealing with a horse coming off synthetic surfaces and who had won the Sham Stakes by a half-length,” Anderson said. "With Court Vision, you’re dealing with Billy Mott and going to Aqueduct where he had already won a stakes, and then going to Churchill Downs where he had already won a stakes. How could I take off him? And when you’re going a mile and a quarter for the first time, you can’t count speed figures.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know if Gomez could get the mount back now if he wanted to but he undoubtedly chose to ride Court Vision in the Wood over Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby:

Another person who was thrilled when he heard about the work was Gomez’ agent Ron Anderson, who stands by last month’s decision to ride Court Vision instead of Colonel John.

“With Colonel John, you’re dealing with a horse coming off synthetic surfaces and who had won the Sham Stakes by a half-length,” Anderson said. "With Court Vision, you’re dealing with Billy Mott and going to Aqueduct where he had already won a stakes, and then going to Churchill Downs where he had already won a stakes. How could I take off him? And when you’re going a mile and a quarter for the first time, you can’t count speed figures.

Yeah, and Ron Anderson's never made a similar mistake before (Hard Spun, Rags to Riches)..

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, and Ron Anderson's never made a similar mistake before (Hard Spun, Rags to Riches)..

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

I understand playing against him on top at 9/2 or so, and he's certainly not my value pick, but I can't really see him running out of the money.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

If you believe Court Vision is the slowest Derby horse ever it's obvious that you are not familiar with Saarland.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horse...ley-column.htm

ESPN had a reporter following this slug throughout the prep races.
This is only a link with early April doings of this horse.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print...253&type=story

[robfla]

couple reasons.

- process of elimination, except for Big Brown who really is fast enough?
- Throw out beyers on synthetic as they are not meaningful.
- He can plod along and run down the wilting frontrunners ( ala Giacomo )
- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year
- Tiznow, true, dominant sire on synthetic surfaces, but didnt he win a good race or two on dirt?
- and last but not least: he should have no problems with the distance

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by robfla

- Cali horses are running elsewhere and winning this year

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I understand the rest of your reasoning but think this is meaningless. We've seen in the older male division that the also rans on the synthetics are often best on dirt. Seeing Tiago win at Oaklawn doesn't make me suddenly think that Go Between and Champs Elysees are dirt horses. The likelihood is that the best on the synthetics are not going to be the best on dirt.

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure I'd hold the modest Beyers too much against CJ - it's hard for a 3yo to light it up figure wise in slow paced synthetic track routes.

He will stay 10 furlongs - and while he is unlikely to improve much on dirt - I'm sure he'll probably hold his synthetic form on it.

He's a horse that wouldn't leave me totally shocked if he won - I just think he's going to be overbet and I don't want him.

Yeah, that pretty much sums up my thoughts.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

I said in my initial post that seeing how he works might change things. As of now though I don't understand how everyone can be acting like he's a must play horse. I think he needs to prove he belongs on dirt before he is worthy of consideration on any tickets.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

after conceeding this, it seems that you have 1 arguement left which is he might not like dirt.

wouldn't you want to see how he works at churchill before dismissing him?

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

would seem to be gigantic question mark, no?

definetly a question mark. not sure i'd call it gigantic.

[slotdirt]

Sorry, Mr. DrugSy, won't make that mistake again.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

since when does the highest beyer mean the horse is going to win. i laugh at that crap. its good for me though cause people bet that way all the time. furthurmore the beyers for the synthetic are a line of garbage anyway, especially at SA. is there any one out there that actually handicaps races anymore ? the numbers are fine but if you are betting just based on that ,well, you are missing alot of value out there . colonel john is not my top pick , but i like him. the race is loaded with speed . if it does not rain a closer will probably win. there will be horses winging out there at a fast pace and they have no shot, ( it happens ALMOST every year). its not rocket science or speed figs that see this race almost always falls apart at the end . and here comes the strong fininsher to clean up the leftovers, i could care less what his beyers were . hes won some major preps, has a great trainer that would not show up for nothing . most importantly has a running style that takes about 7 out of 10 kentucky derbies. if people could win just by betting the highest beyer figs why aren't they quitting their jobs ?

[cmorioles]

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

He is very live because of

1)the lack of talent in the field
2) his seasoning,
3) his pedigree for dirt
4) right running style for derby
5) and most importantly he appears to be one of the few without any question about the 10f distance.

If he puts in a big work on the churchill strip I would think he would be the horse to beat. I just don't see how you can take less than 5-1 on any horse in this field, especially a horse with 2 career dirt races (big brown) or a horse with no career dirt races (colonel john). I will take Cool Coal Man at a nice price.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

Thanks for saying this, it seems to be overlooked by most writers when discussing byers in these Triple Crown races when comparing the figs to past years same race figs on dirt


All the synth figs for 2 and 3 year olds are correspondingly low