Best current offshore Derby futures

[Dunbar]

Here are the best odds being offered on the top 23 on the Graded Earnings list:

Horse, odds-to-1, site

Big Brown , 3.25 Greek
Pyro , 7.85 Greek
Colonel John, 5.65 Greek
Tale of Ekati, 20.5 Greek
Gayego , 20 World, Bodog
Monba, 20 World, Bodog
Eight Bells, 25 Bodog
Z Humor, 50 Bodog
Court Visi on, 25.5 Greek
Z Fortune, 25.5 Greek
Adriano , 25 World
Smooth Air, 45 World
Proud Spell, 100 Bodog
Cool Coal Man, 50 Bodog
Cowboy Cal, 40.5 Greek
Visionaire, 40 Bodog
Big Truck , 100 Bodog
Bob Black Jack, 40 World, Bodog
Denis of Cork, 100 Bodog
Behindthebar, 45 World
Halo Najib, 100 Bodog
RecaptureGlory, 45 World
Anak Nakal, 100 Bodog

These futures are action in play whether or not the horse starts. But even taking all 23 horses, the takeout from this set of odds is just 2%.

--Dunbar

"Greek" is TheGreek
"World" is World Sports Exchange
"Bodog" is, well, Bodog

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Wasn't Pyro supposed to work today?

[brianwspencer]

100-1 on Denis of Cork wouldn't be too bad right now. Doubt he ends up being my very top choice, but those odds would constitute a HUGE overlay for me.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

100-1 on Denis of Cork wouldn't be too bad right now. Doubt he ends up being my very top choice, but those odds would constitute a HUGE overlay for me.

Agreed.

[Gander]

Thanks. These odds are invaluable and really give you a good idea of what we can expect on Derby Day.

Z Fortune is really taking some strong action. I think he was 54/1 in pool 3 of the future wagers. I wish I had $20 on that.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Wasn't Pyro supposed to work today?

Worked 6F in company with Noonmark. Due to the fog, no official time clocked.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/ne...arp-under-bore

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the best odds being offered on the top 23 on the Graded Earnings list:

Horse, odds-to-1, site

Big Brown , 3.25 Greek
Pyro , 7.85 Greek
Colonel John, 5.65 Greek
Tale of Ekati, 20.5 Greek
Gayego , 20 World, Bodog
Monba, 20 World, Bodog
Eight Bells, 25 Bodog
Z Humor, 50 Bodog
Court Visi on, 25.5 Greek
Z Fortune, 25.5 Greek
Adriano , 25 World
Smooth Air, 45 World
Proud Spell, 100 Bodog
Cool Coal Man, 50 Bodog
Cowboy Cal, 40.5 Greek
Visionaire, 40 Bodog
Big Truck , 100 Bodog
Bob Black Jack, 40 World, Bodog
Denis of Cork, 100 Bodog
Behindthebar, 45 World
Halo Najib, 100 Bodog
RecaptureGlory, 45 World
Anak Nakal, 100 Bodog

These futures are action in play whether or not the horse starts. But even taking all 23 horses, the takeout from this set of odds is just 2%.

--Dunbar

"Greek" is TheGreek
"World" is World Sports Exchange
"Bodog" is, well, Bodog

i used to play cards at the website world sports exchange set up when they charged no rake.

i occasionally wandered over to the sports side and made a few bets there.

they sent me a t-shirt i never wear.

if anyone wants a large white t emblazed with "wsex.com" in large red letters and "world sports exchange" in tiny black letters underneath, let me know.

[zippyneedsawin]

I don't know how up to date these odds are, but according to the web site, the current future odds for the Las Vegas Hilton put Colonel John at 7/2... and Big Brown at 6-1! I find that surprising.
Some of the other odds are pathetically low.. Court Vision & Cowboy Cal at 12-1... Smooth Air 15-1... Visionaire 20-1... those horses will be higher than that on Derby Day...


http://letitride.com/LVH_Future_Book_Odds.cfm

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the best odds being offered on the top 23 on the Graded Earnings list:

Horse, odds-to-1, site

Big Brown , 3.25 Greek
Pyro , 7.85 Greek
Colonel John, 5.65 Greek
Tale of Ekati, 20.5 Greek
Gayego , 20 World, Bodog
Monba, 20 World, Bodog
Eight Bells, 25 Bodog
Z Humor, 50 Bodog
Court Visi on, 25.5 Greek
Z Fortune, 25.5 Greek
Adriano , 25 World
Smooth Air, 45 World
Proud Spell, 100 Bodog
Cool Coal Man, 50 Bodog
Cowboy Cal, 40.5 Greek
Visionaire, 40 Bodog
Big Truck , 100 Bodog
Bob Black Jack, 40 World, Bodog
Denis of Cork, 100 Bodog
Behindthebar, 45 World
Halo Najib, 100 Bodog
RecaptureGlory, 45 World
Anak Nakal, 100 Bodog

These futures are action in play whether or not the horse starts. But even taking all 23 horses, the takeout from this set of odds is just 2%.

Okay, big changes from yesterday. Pinnacle has put up its odds. Meanwhile, "World" has taken its odds down. Still, with just Pinnacle, TheGreek, and Bodog, it would be possible to make an arbitrage where you bet every horse and clear a 3% profit on your total bet.

Here are the best current odds at those 3 books:

Big Brown , 3.25 Greek
Pyro , 9 Pinnacle
Colonel John, 7.25 Pinnacle
Tale of Ekati, 22 Pinnacle
Gayego , 20 Bodog
Monba, 24.5 Pinnacle
Eight Bells, 33 Pinnacle
Z Humor, 55 Pinnacle
Court Visi on, 32 Pinnacle
Z Fortune, 25 Bodog
Adriano , 21 Pinnacle
Smooth Air, 35.5 Greek
Proud Spell, 125 Pinnacle
Cool Coal Man, 50 Bodog
Cowboy Cal, 40.5 Greek
Visionaire, 42 Pinnacle
Big Truck , 110 Pinnacle
Bob Black Jack, 75 Pinnacle
Denis of Cork, 50 Bodog
Behindthebar, 35 Pinnacle
Halo Najib, 100 Bodog
RecaptureGlory, 31 Pinnacle
Anak Nakal, 110 Pinnacle

Pinnacle has the highest odds on 15 of the 23 horses. Bodog has the highest on 5, and TheGreek has the highest on 3, including Big Brown.

--Dunbar

"Greek" is TheGreek
"World" is World Sports Exchange
"Bodog" is, well, Bodog

[Dunbar]

Changes from yesterday:
Big Brown is now up to 3.45-1, was 3.25-1
Tale of Ekati is up to 22.5-1, was 22-1
Court Vision is down to 28-1, was 32-1
Z Fortune is down to 20-1, was 25-1
Smooth Air took enough action to knock it down from 35.5-1 to 25.5-1 at TheGreek; Pinnacle's 26-1 is now highest
Denis of Cork is down to 45.5-1, was 50-1.

Here are the best current odds I can find:

Big Brown, 3.45 Greek
Pyro, 9 Pinnacle
Colonel John, 7.25 Pinnacle
Tale of Ekati, 22.5 Greek
Gayego , 20 Bodog
Monba, 24.5 Pinnacle
Eight Bells, 33 Pinnacle
Z Humor, 55 Pinnacle
Court Visi on, 28 Pinnacle
Z Fortune, 20 Bodog
Adriano , 21 Pinnacle
Smooth Air, 26 Pinnacle
Proud Spell, 125 Pinnacle
Cool Coal Man, 50 Bodog
Cowboy Cal, 40.5 Greek
Visionaire, 42 Pinnacle
Big Truck , 110 Pinnacle
Bob Black Jack, 75 Pinnacle
Denis of Cork, 50 Greek
Behindthebar, 35 Pinnacle
Halo Najib, 100 Bodog
RecaptureGlory, 31 Pinnacle
Anak Nakal, 110 Pinnacle

Pinnacle has the highest odds on 15 of the 23 horses. Bodog has the highest on 4, and TheGreek has the highest on 4, including Big Brown.

A proportional bet on every horse at the odds on the list would yield a 1.7% overall profit.

--Dunbar

"Greek" is TheGreek
"Bodog" is, well, Bodog

[cakes44]

Denis of Cork should be huge. He's not getting in.

[Gander]

The fact that Proud Spell is 125/1 speaks volumes of which race she goes in. It will be the Oaks. Eight Belles at 33/1?

How much of Edgar Prado riding Adriano do you think is driving this horse to be 21/1? Likely this horse would be sitting at about 50/1 if he didnt make that decision.

[Dunbar]

VERY interesting! Pinnacle has lowered its odds on almost every horse since yesterday morning, including all 3 favs. I think Pinnacle must have had a problem with its algorithm, which resulted in them posting overly generous overall odds. That probably explains why I was able to create the +3% arbitrage 2 days ago. Some examples of the drops: Pyro dropped from 9-1 down to 6.73-1; Big Truck from 110-1 down to 35-1.

Offsetting the reduction in Pinnacle's odds is the appearance of a line at Jazzsports.com. Jazz is a solid offshore book with a "B" rating at Sportsbookreview.com.

Even with the reduction, Pinnacle still has the best odds on 7 horses. Jazz has the highest odds on 8 horses. Bodog has 5, and TheGreek has 4, including the best odds on Big Brown and Pyro.

Changes from yesterday:
Pyro is down to 7.25-1 at TheGreek; the 9-1 at Pinny is history
Col John is down to 6.98-1; was 7.25
Gayego is up to 23.75-1 thanks to Jazz; was 20
Monba is down to 22.01-1; was 24.5
Eight Bells is down to 30-1; was 33
Court Vision is down to 20-1; was 28
Z Fortune is up to 25-1; was 20
Adriano is up to 30-1; was 21
Smooth Air is up to 28-1; was 26
Cowboy Cal is up to 50-1; was 40.5
Visionaire is down to 40-1; was 42
Big Truck is down to 100-1; was 110
Bob Black Jack is down to 60-1; was 75-1
Denis of Cork is down to 45.5-1; was 50
RecapturetheGlory is down to 30-1; was 31

Here are the best current odds I can find:

Big Brown, 3.45 Greek
Pyro, 7.25 Greek
Colonel John, 6.98 Pinnacle
Tale of Ekati, 22.5 Greek
Gayego, 23.75 Jazz
Monba, 22.01 Pinnacle
Eight Bells, 30 Jazz
Z Humor, 55 Pinnacle
Court Visi on, 20 Bodog, Jazz
Z Fortune, 25 Jazz
Adriano , 30 Jazz
Smooth Air, 28 Jazz
Proud Spell, 125 Pinnacle
Cool Coal Man, 50 Bodog
Cowboy Cal, 50 Jazz
Visionaire, 40 Bodog
Big Truck , 100 Bodog
Bob Black Jack, 60 Pinnacle
Denis of Cork, 45.5 Greek
Behindthebar, 35 Pinnacle
Halo Najib, 100 Bodog
RecaptureGlory, 30 Jazz
Anak Nakal, 110 Pinnacle

A proportional bet on every horse at the odds on the list would be almost exactly breakeven. The odds represent a 0% takeout.

--Dunbar

"Greek" is TheGreek
"Jazz" is JazzSports
"Bodog" is, BodogLife[/quote]

[Dunbar]

While checking to see if 5Dimes had a line yet, I came across this important sporting event line instead:

Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - July 4, 2008 - ESPN

Chestnut or Kobayahsi must participate for action
Fri 7/4
12:00PM (EST)
Nathan's winner eats over 68½ hot dogs -115
Nathan's winner eats under 68½ hot dogs -115

I guess Kobayashi and Chestnut are the Federer and Nadal of hotdog gobbling. Glad to see ESPN is on the job.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

I'm leaving for Vegas in a few hours and don't have time for a complete odds update. But I see that TheGreek finally got the action they seemed to be itching for on Big Brown.

Yesterday the odds on Big Brown were 3.45-1 at TheGreek. Today the odds are 2.85-1 at TheGreek. Both Bodog and Jazz are still offering 3-1.

Bodog has these props on the fillies:

2008 Kentucky Derby Props - Will the filly Eight Belles run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks? Preview All wagers have action. Singles Only. Max $100
Eight Belles will run in the Kentucky Derby
+170

Eight Belles will run in the Kentucky Oaks
-240


2008 Kentucky Derby Props - Will the filly Proud Spell run in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks? Preview All wagers have action. Singles Only. Max $100
Proud Spell will run in the Kentucky Derby
+250

Proud Spell will run in the Kentucky Oaks
-350

--Dunbar

"+250" means you risk $100 to profit $250
"-350" means you risk $350 to profit $100

[Dunbar]

oops, I double posted.

so, I erased the duplicate.

--Dunbar

[MarkyD]

Dunbar,

Pinnacle has max wager at 201$ dollars. Seems kind of low this year.

Will the max wager move up as we get closer? I know for a fact that I bet 350 on each HardSpun and Great Hunter last year on single tickets. So Max was higher then 201.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

Dunbar,

Pinnacle has max wager at 201$ dollars. Seems kind of low this year.

Will the max wager move up as we get closer? I know for a fact that I bet 350 on each HardSpun and Great Hunter last year on single tickets. So Max was higher then 201.

Yes, I'm almost certain the limits will increase. This is the first day they have put up odds. Once they've had time to take some action and build a base they will raise the limits. I doubt the 75-1 on Bob Black Jack will last long, though.

--Dunbar

[MarkyD]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Yes, I'm almost certain the limits will increase. This is the first day they have put up odds. Once they've had time to take some action and build a base they will raise the limits. I doubt the 75-1 on Bob Black Jack will last long, though.

--Dunbar

What are your plays this year? I remember you also had HArdSpun last year. I had him at 18-1 on pinni, second week in.

This year, looking to make 1 bet instead of 2 or 3. Want to try and get BigBrown at +375 or higher and drop 1K on him. Not even about value this year, I just don't have that feeling this year with this crappy field.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

What are your plays this year? I remember you also had HArdSpun last year. I had him at 18-1 on pinni, second week in.

This year, looking to make 1 bet instead of 2 or 3. Want to try and get BigBrown at +375 or higher and drop 1K on him. Not even about value this year, I just don't have that feeling this year with this crappy field.

I have a huge (for me) future bet from Pool 1 on All Others. So, I have Big Brown, Cool Coal Man, Gayego and the fillies covered at a combined 3.3-1. (I'll also have a couple of bonus horses with that, like Big Truck, RecapturetheGlory, etc.) I have a smaller bet on All Others from Pool 2, which gives me even more action on Big Brown at 6.5-1 (plus the fillies, etc).

At this point I'm looking for opportunities to hedge. If I had money at Pinnacle, I'd jump on the Pyro and Col John odds. (I don't have an opinion yet on whether those odds offer value; I'm just trying to hedge my Big Brown/All Others position. And I'm pretty sure those odds are not awful for Pyro and Col John.) I've already made hedge bets elsewhere on Smooth Air, Denis of Cork, and Bob Black Jack (the latter at less than Pinnacle's 75-1, I'm afraid!).

It's going to be tough to come up with a line this year, what with the inconsistent performances and the synthetic surface factor, too. My thinking right now is that Big Brown is the obvious standout in this group and that his talent towers over the rest of the field enough to make up for his woeful lack of racing foundation.

Oh yeah, for completeness I should add that I'm also sitting on individual futures on War Pass, El Gato Malo, Elysium Fields and Texas Wildcatter. I probably should have passed on the latter 2 simply because they were already part of my All Others bet. The War Pass and El Gato Malo bets were small hedges that I don't regret.

--Dunbar