my Selection is... a loser!

[Bobby Fischer]

Race2. loser!

Race10. loser!

Sound familiar?? It should.



The heart of the game is centered around selecting losing favorites.

I do not see this stressed enough by the experts. This is what horseplaying is really about. This fact is not obvious to all players. Most players do know that there is more to selecting wagers than picking winners(directly). Common knowledge says that win% does not equal profit. The odds are so important. Logically it might then be about selecting longshots, but it isn't.
Mathematically horseracing is about meeting a value demand in order to prove a wager is profitable. Losing favorites cause the majority of these market situations.

Select losing favorite, and assess a wagering strategy.
The strategy of the horseplayer is to use accurate information and apply his talent with that information to accurately select losing favorites. He then must evaluate the available wagers and make decisions on what if anything fits, that meets his value and probability demands.


Do one thing and do it better than anyone else!

Select losing favorite, and assess a wagering strategy.




Vulture list May 03,2008
------------------------
Cowtown Cat =Timeless Native Stakes. Estimated as a low quality racehorse vulnerable to finishing completely out of the money in this 5horse field. Possible wager types= Throng to win, 4others Exbox, Throng top/bottom of the3others.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...&alternative=1

Colonel John, Pyro = Kentucky Derby. Estimated as tosses from exacta. Possible Wager Types = Big Brown to win, place or show







---------------------------------
quick appendix


Losing FAVORITE = Each wager type pool is a market!! When a lot of money in that market is on low probability outcome(s), the market becomes inneficient.
In the simplest form, it is a single favorite. For whatever specific reason this horse will be bet much heavier than what you have estimated were his chances of winning that specific wager type. An underlay.

The Vulture list = every horse who wins "impressively" but fails to impress you or strikes you as a low quality horse. Every fan favorite. Every horse who is placed in the "wrong" situation (surface distance class etc..). Any suspect favorite in general, deserves special attention. The bulk of your handicapping efforts are channeled at these horses. You must be objective, accurate and never "hopeful".

TALENT-Talent of a horseplayer(aside from status) is often thought of by other talented horseplayers as the ability to study races and make accurate estimations from every piece of information.
In modern handicapping, a good deal of this is visual information of race replays. Watching the actual sport over and over with a trained eye and drawing information and opinions.
An additional aspect that many often include into their video analysis (live viewing as well) is an understanding of horse physiology. A player may have a list of negative signs like a stride abnormality, or breaking through the gate, that call for wager cancellation.
The player may also be trying to formulate an opinion of a horse's physical makeup and talent. Horses vary as much as football players, and horseplayers evaluate horseflesh as scouts evaluate men in games and draft combines.
More common and more available to the public, but also very important is making good use of the past performance information. This information includes everything you see on the form, as well as derivatives such as pace or velocity.
Video analysis can represent 75% of some modern horseplayer's focus.


WAGERING
Win wagers are perhaps the most basic and actually one of the best wagers, particularly when considering hit probability. A full command of all or most available wager types and pools will give you more plays. For all wagers I believe in estimating value and considering the hit% as well. When estimating the price care must be taken to make a low estimate allowing for prices to drop.

value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
Win Wager Example: Pyro and Colonel John have a small win probability. I am tossing both from the exacta. Big Brown has an estimated 45% chance to win the Kentucky Derby
his odds are 5/2 or 2.5-1. a low estimate of 2.3-1(small pools require more room for error!).
$2price= $6.60
hitProbability=45%
value= (6.60*0.45)/2 =1.48
My value demand is 40cents and $1.48 exceeds that demand so I will place a win wager.

How much?
to determine betsize I factor hitProbability again. This is my method to avoid ruin because I have a small bankroll. With a very large bankroll this step is less important.
edgefactor = hitProbability*value
edgefactor = 45%*1.48 = 0.66
For every 10 percent of "edgefactor" use 1% of bankroll
0.1*Edgefactor*BANKROLL=betsize
0.10*0.66*$2000.00=$132.00
so you would wager $132 to win on big brown.

additional example
value = ($2price*hitProbability)/2
edgefactor = hitProbability*value
superfecta
structure: A x BC x BC x DEF = $6
hitProbability= .40*.30*.20*.35 = 0.0084 or 0.84%
$1SFC payout = $400 ... 2$Price =$400/(6/2) or 400/3= $133.33
value = $133.33*0.0084/2 = $0.55
edgefactor = 0.0084*0.55= $0.00462
\Summary
So what we have here is a Superfecta, with a pretty good value. It also comes with a relatively low hit probability. The low hit% is going to drive down the "edgefactor". Edgefactor is simply multiplying Value by the hit% to help weigh value with risk of ruin.
I advise using a minimum edgefactor for most wagers. With a very large bankroll , you may choose not to pass the really nice Value here. $0.55 (55 cents on the dollar) is a nice investment opportunity(remember you made conservative estimates and have the skill to be reasonably accurate on average). One approach is to use "edgefactor" to determine betsize.
For every 10 percent of "edgefactor" use 1% of bankroll
0.1*Edgefactor*BANKROLL=betsize= 0.10*0.00462*2000=$0.92
With my $2000 bankroll it is not a good wager for me. I can't make a wager with this system because the minimum $1 wager for SFC A x BC x BC x DEF=$6 and my formula says I should bet only 92Cents in this case! Pass.

edgefactor note - the edgefactor and specifically the hit% may be manipulated in situations where a very high value is offset by a low hit%. Strategies such as covering more horses or dutching may raise the hit%. This will lower the value but sometimes raise the edgefactor enough to qualify a wager without going below your value demand.



MENTAL SIDE
The Capper's Pyramid


..............................[talent].......................

..............[concentration]....[patience].............

.....[viable approach]...[self-control]...[desire]........

[information]..[initiative]..[accurate-thought]..[chief-Aim]

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

gee where can i sighn up..

The economy is definitely in the s.hitter when you have guys trying to sell something on message boards.

[Bobby Fischer]

lol F&M boys have voted^^, [not Filly and Mare...?] Florida(hooves) and Michigan(pants)!


This is discussion on horseplaying Selection theory.

These are the basics of a good percentage of my opportunities. The wagering apendix gives an insight into how I calculate value, as well as determine betsize. The pyramid shows another side of the game that also is neglected in discussion.

It's funny, because if I had posted some chess theory about conceding the center and controling the flanks on a chess board, you would have someone contribute their own knowledge of flank openings, maybe a few people would challenge the validity of the theory etc... Maybe someone learns something, and the theory is advanced or disproved. (Most semi-serious chess players care about opening theory.)
In horseracing you get the F&M wiseguys.

I have some examples for pick 3 wagering using the value and edgefactor approach, however the focus here is on Selecting Losing Favorites.

Losing Favorites create the inneficient market situations which are the core of systematic profitable play.

[Bobby Fischer]

a discussion didn't really materialize
so what i am going to post some losing favorites here in this thread. I will name a horse and I will give a reason and maybe a possible wager. See how it works out. Anyone else is welcome to participate. Hopefully this exercise will improve my skill at evaluating losing favorites and possibly help someone else as well.

5/9/2008
Belmont Race 2
#1 Hostile Takeover/Boxer Rebellion
Reason HT is the contender here in the entry(BR hasn't completely disproved himself, but has shown little in 2 starts). With this track that is very sloppy, I think it hurts HostileTakeover. Out of Diesis he doesn't like the slop. Look back and he did decent in a Muddy track 2 back, today very wet and sloppy. He wants to quit in the slop today, and shows maybe a little more route speed than sprint speed-debateable. Adds blinkers here as well.

possible wager? = the 2,6,10,11 ex box looks pretty good right now
also the 2 to win(taggCoa 1sTimeStarter tale of Cat worked in mudd ).
I am having a tough time estimating a chance for the 2
261011box=12
$2 win on #2

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

5/9/2008
Belmont Race 2
#1 Hostile Takeover/Boxer Rebellion

261011box=12
$2 win on #2

Returned 14.20 Wagered 14.00 +0.20

Hostile Takeover didn't solve his sluggish start even with the blinkers, did his usual rush-up and quit as expected in the sloppy stretch. Unfortunately it was enough to harass the 2 who was overtaken by a fairly strong run from the 10. Didn't have time to examine the showpools. =

General Principle= anytime you bet a horse to win and it pays over $3 to show with both favorites in the top 3 then you should have had $ on it to show.

have another losing favorite later at churchill

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I have to be honest man. IMO the reason a discussion didn't materialize

Nobody wants to discuss races, that's the problem. This is an incredibly interesting exercise, at so many different levels, and you never get to see something exactly the same way twice, YET

rather than having a screen full of threads ABOUT RACES

we're left to social and psychological commentary.

Or, worse, unwanted comments.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I have to be honest man. IMO the reason a discussion didn't materialize is it's sort of hard to figure out what you are saying in your first post. What are you looking to get at? That a good way to make money is by identifying bad favorites? Of course, but then how do you play it? I think it all depends and unless you give people more time than a minute before the race, it's hard to form a discussion. I also strongly disagree with your show betting principles, but that's a whole other discussion.

Fair enough.

Yes I am trying to discuss the strategy of using Losing Favorites.

this is a pretty light day for false favorites, but I am trying to generate some.

Next Race Churchill Downs Race 2
PPs http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_109725.pdf

Looking at 2 horses here who combined could take some money. The favorite #4 (5/2) Midnight Illusion isn't a bad looking horse at all. Sterling often finds a way to lose. It looks like the horse peaked in february, may or may not dislike CD and is crying for a class drop with blinkers added.

The #1 (7/2) Badger Bret comes off the 2month layoff after completely stopping in the stretch last out. His stride looks fragile and he lacks gameness. There is a slim chance that he needs dirt and the dirt style to use his speed, but there is also maybe an equal chance that dirt is going to be harder on him. mena rides.


The problem I have here is that this race is fairly low quality. A horse like Midnight Illusion could "inherit" the win if nothing wants to try. This isn't a race I want to invest a lot into even with a fair share of the money on low probability horses.
There are 2 first time starters #5,6.
#6 is romans/albarado and has a decent worktab.
you also have the #2 and 3 with the #3Palm Springs coming off a race where it made some headway before quiting at Keeneland.

Hard race to bet. I want to see the tote and look at the prices on #6

[Bobby Fischer]

Saturday May 10 2008

VULTURE LIST
El Gato Malo , Lonestar Derby

Tomcito, CASINO DRIVE?? Peter Pan Stakes


I don't know what to do with the lonestar Derby. If I was playing that card, MAYBE I would oppose EGM in a pick3 or double. Not familiar with the track and not that interested in the field. I also think the Entry/co-fav will do well and be well bet.

PETER PAN
Who/Why: Tomcito is a sentimental fan favorite with little talent, but the real question here is Casino Drive. Chances are that he isn't a Grade II dirt horse, and even less chance that he is some star horse. Possible but not probable. It makes sense to oppose Casino Drive if he does get heavily bet.

How to bet it?
Well 8 horses -2 = 6 horses. Fast Talking is extremely Cheap leaving 5. Deputyville lacks the talent to win this.
Without any extra capping we have 4 win contenders 3567
3mintlane 5goldenSpikes 6ReadyEcho 7Cosmic

[Bobby Fischer]

trying to construct some wagers
early wagering ideas
R8 Belmont Pick3 12357 x 567 x 4,14 = $30
r9 3567 ex bx = $12
r9 trifecta 7x5x2346 = $4
r9 double 567 x 3,4,9,12,14,15 = $18
r9 $20 show on #7 Cosmic **conditional - IF #1CasinoDrive is leader in show pools with aprox 5 minutes to post.

[Bobby Fischer]

R8 Belmont Pick3 12357 x 567 x 4,14 = $30
r8 pick 3 35 x 3567 x 4,9,12,14,15 = $40

[Bobby Fischer]

r9 3567 ex bx = $12
r9 trifecta 7x356x356 = $6
r9 $4 exbx 3567 = $24
r9 $2 exbx 36 = $4
r9 $20 ex 17 = $20
r9 $2 double 7 w/ 4,9,12,14,15= $10
r9 $10 double 7 w/ 4,14 = $20
r9 $50 show on #7 Cosmic
r9 $5 win on #7 cosmic

[Bobby Fischer]

ooops $4 ex box should read $48^^