Smart money?

[dean smith]

As a relative newcomer to Derby Trail, could someone tell me whether the picks posted in the "Selections" section are meant to be taken seriously? By that I mean, who is posting them, what are their credentials, are any statistics kept by anyone on how often they hit, and who's picks, if any, should be considered gospel, and who's are as reliable as your average, run-of-the-mill, idiot brother-in-law?

In a nutshell, who are the posters who are making money and who is just shooting their mouths off? Who does the smart money follow?

I'm only asking because I think it would be great for my own handicapping to see what better players are doing and working backwards to see how they came to those conclusions -- especially on the money management side.

Oh, and I might gravy train their picks once in awhile, too.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by dean smith

As a relative newcomer to Derby Trail, could someone tell me whether the picks posted in the "Selections" section are meant to be taken seriously? By that I mean, who is posting them, what are their credentials, are any statistics kept by anyone on how often they hit, and who's picks, if any, should be considered gospel, and who's are as reliable as your average, run-of-the-mill, idiot brother-in-law?

In a nutshell, who are the posters who are making money and who is just shooting their mouths off? Who does the smart money follow?

I'm only asking because I think it would be great for my own handicapping to see what better players are doing and working backwards to see how they came to those conclusions -- especially on the money management side.

Oh, and I might gravy train their picks once in awhile, too.

The best ever no longer posts here.


















RIP BBB

[Bigsmc]

DO NOT take my picks seriously.

I am homeless because I gambled away all of my savings, my children's college fund and my home equity line. I haven't hit a winner since the Truman administration. I'm also dyslexic, so if I want to include the 2 and 1 on my ticket, I sometimes type in 12.

As far as the rest, just sit back and watch for a bit, you will quickly figure out who is sharp, who is pretty good and who else is in my category, wasting bandwidth here.

To help get you started, that Kasept guy is pretty sharp.....

[sdjcom]

There are some sharp multi-race players on here, just watch and learn. I,m down over 700 for year so don't play mine..lol Steve Byk has to post for the Atr
and forum and is as good as any in the country. His pick 4-6 are really low cost so it's reasonable for listeners and I know for a fact if he played 1-2 grand like some do he would have hit many pk6 this year. he had all the horses in his picks. Maybe he does, but follow his posts for picks. good luck

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I'd say many on here are capable. The obvious weakness that most players (including myself) have is they try to pull stuff off that is just hard enough to get them beat. For instance, myself and FAT MAN were on here the other day talking about how the connections of a horse called UTAHN should do this or that to get him to win. Fact is the horse regularly has trouble winning, but has no trouble coming 2nd (and paying over $8.00 to do it.) He has only been out of the money one time, and has only won one time. Chances were pretty good he was gunna come 2nd or 3rd, but we are talking about why he didn't win. One step too far. So, if a lot of players do this(one step too far,) then the obvious thing to do is to use their multi-race stuff in a more conservative way than they are using it. Bet their pick 4 seletions in pick 3 bets etc. Bet their pick 3 selections in doubles. My guess is that will work pretty well.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

DO NOT take my picks seriously.

I am homeless because I gambled away all of my savings, my children's college fund and my home equity line. I haven't hit a winner since the Truman administration. I'm also dyslexic, so if I want to include the 2 and 1 on my ticket, I sometimes type in 12.

As far as the rest, just sit back and watch for a bit, you will quickly figure out who is sharp, who is pretty good and who else is in my category, wasting bandwidth here.

To help get you started, that Kasept guy is pretty sharp.....

Took the words out of my mouth.

I have to say, I'm a little offended/irritated by the original post in this thread. Everybody in here posts their selections FOR FUN or to encourage discussion. No one is "shooting their mouths off" here, we're all just trying to have fun and become better handicappers together. Viewing this room as some kind of shark tank pissing contest where we're all trying to one-up each other is the completely wrong way to look at it.

Anyone and everyone is free (and encourgaed) to post their picks. Some people are better than others, everyone has a different strategy, but it's a learning process for all involved. Join in. And I have no idea what smart money is.

[letswastemoney]

Follow my picks!! I swear you won't be disappointed

[swedejxn]

I agree with all that's been (sincerely posted)... just about everyone here has posted some great hits and some bad misses.... Steve is a great handicapper... He knows alot of people in the business and at the track... His insight is invaluable... But just about all have their strengths whether it be a certain track, routes or sprints, turf,dirt, or synthetics...

Work on making your handicapping better each and everyday... Use the posts to validate your plays or to open your eyes to something you may have missed.... or occasionally that "insider" play that surfaces....

When time permits break down a race you like (with comments) as that provides the most valuable information for other posters/viewers/lurkers...
and will probably elicit more comments which will help you as well...

Good luck at the windows.... Mr. Smith

[dean smith]

Whoa! Ateam... not trying to offend or irritate. Looking back at my original post, I don't see how it could have offended or irritated anyone actually, but I'm sorry if you were. I guess in this politically correct, ultra-sensitive world I should have known to replace "just shooting their mouths off" (even if it was written in the most light-hearted way imaginable) to "lesser handicappers." I forgot how sensitive you were.

I know one guy who won't forget how sensitive you are, though. How about that poor bastard you ripped the other day who made mention that he didn't think some horse could improve on his figs and he thought the track was running a certain way? I think he wrote for Kentucky Derbysomething dot com....you called him a hack journalist....abused his handicapping and lack of knowlege of the game... Was that guy somehow excluded from your circle of players just getting together to exchange information and have fun?

Ateam, I read your posts and respect your opinion. You seem to have a handle on everything you talk about. I'll freely admit without blinking an eye that you are most definitely the better handicapper between us. I also think you're bi-polar and a bit of a spazz, but maybe that's what I love about you the most! You're edgy...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Could somebody please estimate the off odds for the 6th race at Anita on Wednesday(if no scratches occur.) Scavs, he we go again with these mid-level 4 year old fillies on the grass. If you would run them together 8 times, you would have 6 different winners.