Kathy Walsh on Georgie Boy

[The Indomitable DrugS]

From DRF:

Georgie Boy, the dominant sprinter in California this winter, is likely to make first start outside his home state in the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland on April 11.

Owned by George Schwary and trained by Kathy Walsh, Georgie Boy has won his last two starts - the $300,000 Sunshine Millions Sprint on Jan. 24 and the Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap on Feb. 21.

"I'm thinking of it, but I haven't finalized it with George," Walsh said of the Commonwealth.

A successful trip to Kentucky could lead to a start in the $600,000 Metropolitan Handicap over a mile at Belmont Park on May 25, Walsh said.

"I want to see how he travels," Walsh said. "He's never left home."

This kind of caught me off guard because KW has handled this horse with such extreme conservatisim and has really put herself in a position to be further rewarded for it.

I think she's making an unneccessarily aggressive low-upside decision here though.

She might not run a horse in a Grade 2 150K stake at Santa Anita on SA Derby day - that would be about a 1/5 favorite next week - and will instead ship him to Keeneland and race him over that oddball surface for slightly more money ... with the long range goal being a 600K stake in NY - on a surface that GB has never run on - in a so-called "stallion making" race that still does nothing to help a gelding's value at stud.

Since they've installed the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita - post time favorites have racked up a 15-for-27 (56%) record in Graded Stake races. The sprint division out there is a total mess and a Cal bred gelding like GB can stay put and clean house from an earnings standpoint leading into the Breeders Cup.

Meanwhile, post time favorites in Graded Stakes at Keeneland are just 5-for-43 (11.6%) since they've installed the synthetic .. chaos rules there.

It's very surprising to see such aggression with so little additional upside from a horse that has been handled so carefully and seems like the division's last remaining survivor out West.

It is actually now possible that Halo Najib - who has lost 9 races in a row - all of them by at least 2.5 lengths or more - and has not won a sprint race since his debut at KEE two years ago ... will be the post time favorite in next Saturday's Grade 2 Potrero Grande.

[SniperSB23]

I like the idea of the Met Mile if they want the horse to be taken seriously but passing up on the Potrero Grande for the Commonwealth makes absolutely no sense, especially if they are going to be shipping him again for the Met Mile.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like the idea of the Met Mile if they want the horse to be taken seriously but passing up on the Potrero Grande for the Commonwealth makes absolutely no sense, especially if they are going to be shipping him again for the Met Mile.

Do you two understand the aura of winning a race at Keeneland? Some owners don't mind taking a chance or two with a decent horse and like traveling to new tracks to see them run.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

Do you two understand the aura of winning a race at Keeneland? Some owners don't mind taking a chance or two with a decent horse and like traveling to new tracks to see them run.

Scav, I would have to say that running in a Grade 2 stake on Santa Anita Derby that you almost have to fall down to lose would be a huge thrill to any owner based in So. Cal

I know if I owned the horse I'd be begging Kathy Walsh to start acting like Kathy Walsh again.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Scav, I would have to say that running in a Grade 2 stake on Santa Anita Derby that you almost have to fall down to lose would be a huge thrill to any owner based in So. Cal

I know if I owned the horse I'd be begging Kathy Walsh to start acting like Kathy Walsh again.

I agree about the SA Derby Day, but maybe the owner has been there done that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Kathy is calling the shots and not the owner.

And the only reason why I think this is interesting and worthy of such analysis is because Georgie Boy has been one of the all time poster childs for the benefits of cautious and careful management and placement.

After he nicely won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity ... she stopped on him .. and not because of actual injury - but because she thought he could benefit from time.

After he swept the San Vincete and San Felipe in dazzling fashion and looked like a cinch in the SA Derby ... she stopped on him ... and not because of injury because she didn't like how he came back and thought he could use some time.

She said she didn't have him fully cranked when he was brought back from a layoff this time .. and he improved steadily and got better and better.

Now, he's the only horse left standing in a laughable division out there that has totally fallen apart. A total vindication of her brilliant handling of the horse.

But now, she wants to take a path of significantly greater resistance to which offers only slightly greater reward. When she can instead pile up earnings and win nice races leading into having home court advantage for The Breeders Cup sprint and a shot at an eclipse award.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I like the idea of the Met Mile if they want the horse to be taken seriously but passing up on the Potrero Grande for the Commonwealth makes absolutely no sense, especially if they are going to be shipping him again for the Met Mile.

The Breeders Cup Sprint is going to be run over his home track again this year. If he wins that race he's champion sprinter.

But anyway, even if that race wasn't on his stoming grounds, what good is it to be taken seriously when you have a Cal Bred gelding?

If you must travel to try dirt ... why not the much shorter ship for the 300K Lone Star Mile at the end of April against a likely field of donkeys?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Breeders Cup Sprint is going to be run over his home track again this year. If he wins that race he's champion sprinter.

But anyway, even if that race wasn't on his stoming grounds, what good is it to be taken seriously when you have a Cal Bred gelding?

If you must travel to try dirt ... why not the much shorter ship for the 300K Lone Star Mile at the end of April against a likely field of donkeys?

I don't buy that. If you are in the sport just to make money you are probably in the wrong business. If you own you occasionally have to take a risk and have some fun. You think that the connections of Lava Man don't wish he'd won outside of California and been taken more seriously?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't totally disagree with you.

However, if Lava Man had the Breeders Cup in So. Cal. I highly doubt he ever ships.

[Indian Charlie]

Plus, this throws a monkey wrench into your tvg entry? Do you still have him?

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

From DRF:

This kind of caught me off guard because KW has handled this horse with such extreme conservatisim and has really put herself in a position to be further rewarded for it.

I think she's making an unneccessarily aggressive low-upside decision here though.

She might not run a horse in a Grade 2 150K stake at Santa Anita on SA Derby day - that would be about a 1/5 favorite next week - and will instead ship him to Keeneland and race him over that oddball surface for slightly more money ... with the long range goal being a 600K stake in NY - on a surface that GB has never run on - in a so-called "stallion making" race that still does nothing to help a gelding's value at stud.

Since they've installed the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita - post time favorites have racked up a 15-for-27 (56%) record in Graded Stake races. The sprint division out there is a total mess and a Cal bred gelding like GB can stay put and clean house from an earnings standpoint leading into the Breeders Cup.

Meanwhile, post time favorites in Graded Stakes at Keeneland are just 5-for-43 (11.6%) since they've installed the synthetic .. chaos rules there.

It's very surprising to see such aggression with so little additional upside from a horse that has been handled so carefully and seems like the division's last remaining survivor out West.

It is actually now possible that Halo Najib - who has lost 9 races in a row - all of them by at least 2.5 lengths or more - and has not won a sprint race since his debut at KEE two years ago ... will be the post time favorite in next Saturday's Grade 2 Potrero Grande.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

everyone has him but you I think. No one benifts except you if he flops at Kee.

That alone is an outrage.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

everyone has him but you I think. No one benifts except you if he flops at Kee.

That alone is an outrage.

Me and his legions of fans in KY that wanted to see him run in the derby last year!

[Bobby Fischer]

Good post.


I don't necessarily see it as chaos, more that a lot of these guys quit when their stamina is tested.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

From DRF:

This kind of caught me off guard because KW has handled this horse with such extreme conservatisim and has really put herself in a position to be further rewarded for it.

I think she's making an unneccessarily aggressive low-upside decision here though.

She might not run a horse in a Grade 2 150K stake at Santa Anita on SA Derby day - that would be about a 1/5 favorite next week - and will instead ship him to Keeneland and race him over that oddball surface for slightly more money ... with the long range goal being a 600K stake in NY - on a surface that GB has never run on - in a so-called "stallion making" race that still does nothing to help a gelding's value at stud.

Since they've installed the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita - post time favorites have racked up a 15-for-27 (56%) record in Graded Stake races. The sprint division out there is a total mess and a Cal bred gelding like GB can stay put and clean house from an earnings standpoint leading into the Breeders Cup.

Meanwhile, post time favorites in Graded Stakes at Keeneland are just 5-for-43 (11.6%) since they've installed the synthetic .. chaos rules there.

It's very surprising to see such aggression with so little additional upside from a horse that has been handled so carefully and seems like the division's last remaining survivor out West.

It is actually now possible that Halo Najib - who has lost 9 races in a row - all of them by at least 2.5 lengths or more - and has not won a sprint race since his debut at KEE two years ago ... will be the post time favorite in next Saturday's Grade 2 Potrero Grande.