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  #1  
Old 05-04-2009, 07:47 AM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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Default MTB An Underlay

You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.
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Old 05-04-2009, 08:07 AM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.

overlay or underlay - he jogged randall , if you bet him to win once calvin got though the hole on the rail you were a winner and didn't even have to sweat
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Old 05-04-2009, 08:09 AM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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Originally Posted by gales0678
overlay or underlay - he jogged randall , if you bet him to win once calvin got though the hole on the rail you were a winner and didn't even have to sweat
Not the point. It was a great performance. I'm simply saying he was not Arcangues like value and he could've been.
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Old 05-04-2009, 08:15 AM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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Originally Posted by randallscott35
Not the point. It was a great performance. I'm simply saying he was not Arcangues like value and he could've been.

randall how many horses had run over a muddy track? (besides ff and desert party i don't remember any others)did anyone really know what any of these 3 yr olds were going to do in this slop, were any of the prep races in the mud?


he got a clean trip , compared to the others , the jock saved a ton of ground , and maybe he loved the off?
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Old 05-04-2009, 08:22 AM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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Originally Posted by gales0678
randall how many horses had run over a muddy track? (besides ff and desert party i don't remember any others)did anyone really know what any of these 3 yr olds were going to do in this slop, were any of the prep races in the mud?


he got a clean trip , compared to the others , the jock saved a ton of ground , and maybe he loved the off?
We are having two different conversations.
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Old 05-04-2009, 08:27 AM
Gander Gander is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
We are having two different conversations.
I wrote this on another thread. He should have been over 100/1.
But when you have a Derby where a horse who ran a mere 3 times was 5/1, anything is possible. Giacomo was 50/1 and he had far more to go on than Mind a Bird.
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Old 05-04-2009, 08:27 AM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
We are having two different conversations.

i hear waht you are saying , based on his PP's he should have paid $300+ dollars if you bet $2 to win - that would have been fairer value than the $105 , what he actually paid ,so a strict numbers/value palyer would never have played the horse

my guess is that it's the derby , people bet numbers , people might have made a bet on calvin just as their favorite jock , who knows, perhaps if IWR was in the race he would have went off higher
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  #8  
Old 05-04-2009, 12:55 PM
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Riot Riot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.
The "Bet Barbaro's Pink Eight Blanket In Memory" ontrack crowd Friday and Saturday. That might just be the difference
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Old 05-04-2009, 01:10 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35
You deserve to get paid if you picked that horse. To me, 103.00 was an underlay. He was available at 150-1 offshore on Friday. That might have been a fair price.
I thought he was a big underlay, too. I had him at a mere 100-1 in my own line. Pinnacle was offering 200-1 on Friday, as I posted in this thread: http://derbytrail.com/forums/showthr...t=28920&page=2 At those odds I thought he was an overlay.

As for the value in the win parimutuals, I thought Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back and Flying Private had value. Not a very impressive group with hindsight.

--Dunbar
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  #10  
Old 05-04-2009, 01:17 PM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I thought he was a big underlay, too. I had him at a mere 100-1 in my own line. Pinnacle was offering 200-1 on Friday, as I posted in this thread: http://derbytrail.com/forums/showthr...t=28920&page=2 At those odds I thought he was an overlay.

As for the value in the win parimutuals, I thought Regal Ransom, Hold Me Back and Flying Private had value. Not a very impressive group with hindsight.

--Dunbar
Wow, 200-1. I saw 150-1.
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  #11  
Old 05-04-2009, 01:41 PM
gales0678 gales0678 is offline
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Originally Posted by randallscott35
Wow, 200-1. I saw 150-1.
randle the double with a lead pipe cinch increased your odds to 118 / 1 from 50/1 - was this better value ?
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