Before we leave for Baltimore, another look at derby trips...

[Bobby Fischer]

First the easy ones..

Mine That Bird - obviously best trip in the race by far, benefited from the pack's inefficient dynamics

Other Great trips
Musket Rat - Of the non-MTB trips maybe the best, started cleanly saving ground the first turn, managed to not be as forward as Papa Clem and POTN, which was to Musket Rat's advantage. The advantage in race setup had the negative tradeoff of being one path wider on the 2nd turn. Pretty good case that he would have passed POTN had Gomez not fouled.

Papa Clem - Extremely Clean trip. A tiny bit too forward, but he has a forward running style, and his speed helped him to be well placed tucked in behind the speed Join In the Dance and Regal Ransom. The mad hatters over at P.A. are inexplicably bashing Bejarano for having one of the best trips in the derby... apparently he should have sent Desormeaux's middle move with Hold Me Back over the rail and (magically anticipated and) blocked Calvin Borel's rail skimming ride....

Pioneerof The Nothing - Gomez traded tactical control for a little bit more forward than was optimal(a lot if you factor Mine That Bird, but I'm not).
Easily tucked right in behind and outside of Regal Ransom to go to the first turn. A path wider than Papa Clem into turn 1. Basically remained in the same path, same forward position around turn 2.


Stopping for a moment to reflect - We see that the finishers 2-4 each had relatively perfect trips within the dynamic of the pack. Musket Man's trip was slightly better and he probably only beats POTN by a slim nose if not for Gomez's fouling, so I think if these horses had equal trips Pioneerof the Nile would be the winner, Papa Clem and Musket Man being somewhat equal behind POTN. I think this also makes a statement for the quality of that group and race. There was no orthodox standout performance (if we exclude Mine That Bird's extreme tactic aided trip), and Pioneer of The Nile is only a small degree better than clearly Grade 2 runners Papa Clem and Musket Man. The two most talented runners in the race (Friesan Fire and Dunkirk) both had troubled trips. I think it is safe to say that this year's derby wasn't any better than 2008 sans Big Brown.


Chocolate Candy- slow start actually helped him to get a better setup than most, but must have been pelted with mud all race as unlike MTB, he was always close behind the cavalry charge, didn't have anything special in the stretch.

Friesan Fire - very rough start, appeared to be stepped on/kicked by a couple horses.Ran an uncharacteristic race.
EDIT 5/08 appeared to be stepped on and bumped by Papa Clem immediately out of the gate, and then while knocked sideways appeared to be kicked by Hold Me Back.
He then staggered over to the rail which could have been horse or rider's decision, but was then wrestled away from the rail by the jockey,
where he was urged for more speed before finally settling in a cruise behind Pioneerof the Nile. /EDIT


Dunkirk - Prado looked like the slow kid in bumper cars for the first half of the race. Had that ugly start scuttling on his knees from the gate ...

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

First the easy ones..

Mine That Bird - obviously best trip in the race by far, benefited from the pack's inefficient dynamics

Other Great trips
Musket Rat - Of the non-MTB trips maybe the best, started cleanly saving ground the first turn, managed to not be as forward as Papa Clem and POTN, which was to Musket Rat's advantage. The advantage in race setup had the negative tradeoff of being one path wider on the 2nd turn. Pretty good case that he would have passed POTN had Gomez not fouled.

Papa Clem - Extremely Clean trip. A tiny bit too forward, but he has a forward running style, and his speed helped him to be well placed tucked in behind the speed Join In the Dance and Regal Ransom. The mad hatters over at P.A. are inexplicably bashing Bejarano for having one of the best trips in the derby... apparently he should have sent Desormeaux's middle move with Hold Me Back over the rail and (magically anticipated and) blocked Calvin Borel's rail skimming ride....

Pioneerof The Nothing - Gomez traded tactical control for a little bit more forward than was optimal(a lot if you factor Mine That Bird, but I'm not).
Easily tucked right in behind and outside of Regal Ransom to go to the first turn. A path wider than Papa Clem into turn 1. Basically remained in the same path, same forward position around turn 2.


Stopping for a moment to reflect - We see that the finishers 2-4 each had relatively perfect trips within the dynamic of the pack. Musket Man's trip was slightly better and he probably only beats POTN by a slim nose if not for Gomez's fouling, so I think if these horses had equal trips Pioneerof the Nile would be the winner, Papa Clem and Musket Man being somewhat equal behind POTN. I think this also makes a statement for the quality of that group and race. There was no orthodox standout performance (if we exclude Mine That Bird's extreme tactic aided trip), and Pioneer of The Nile is only a small degree better than clearly Grade 2 runners Papa Clem and Musket Man. The two most talented runners in the race (Friesan Fire and Dunkirk) both had troubled trips. I think it is safe to say that this year's derby wasn't any better than 2008 sans Big Brown.


Chocolate Candy- slow start actually helped him to get a better setup than most, but must have been pelted with mud all race as unlike MTB, he was always close behind the cavalry charge, didn't have anything special in the stretch.

Friesan Fire - very rough start, appeared to be stepped on/kicked by a couple horses.Ran an uncharacteristic race.

Dunkirk - Prado looked like the slow kid in bumper cars for the first half of the race. Had that ugly start scuttling on his knees from the gate ...

I completely agree with the bolded part. Without Quality Road, IWR, Old Fashioned & The Grapefruit stand running it was really a mediocre derby.

Big Brown would have won for fun, with a decently clean trip of course.

[philcski]

Perhaps you are discounting (or missing?) Join in the Dance's mugging of MTB and Papa Clem at the start.

I'm not.

Maybe you are discounting Musket Man's (and to a lesser extent, POTN's) run on the worst part of the track?

I'm not.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

Perhaps you are discounting (or missing?) Join in the Dance's mugging of MTB and Papa Clem at the start.

I'm not.

Maybe you are discounting Musket Man's (and to a lesser extent, POTN's) run on the worst part of the track?

I'm not.

The chart suggested that Papa Clem got bounced around several times.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

The chart suggested that Papa Clem got bounced around several times.

Baby boi's chart doesn't though. He had an extremely clean trip, apparently.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

Perhaps you are discounting (or missing?) Join in the Dance's mugging of MTB and Papa Clem at the start.

I'm not.

Maybe you are discounting Musket Man's (and to a lesser extent, POTN's) run on the worst part of the track?

I'm not.

Im not either. Musket Man is showing himself to be a nice horse and its nice to see someone bring this up about both horses.

Do you think the tough race might take too much out of the three horses you named?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Im not either. Musket Man is showing himself to be a nice horse and its nice to see someone bring this up about both horses.

Do you think the tough race might take too much out of the three horses you named?

I'm not good at determining form cycles, but rarely have I felt like horses with tough trips in the Derby coming back in the Preakness don't fire. Hell, horses I've bet back in the Preakness off good trips like Peace Rules looked gassed.

If RA weren't going I'd definitely be on Musket Man, and early in the Ky Derby talk I had disparaged him pretty bad but watching his trainer work him to get the max out of him he really grew on me... he moved from a total toss to a moderate use in the Derby for me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm not good at determining form cycles, but rarely have I felt like horses with tough trips in the Derby coming back in the Preakness don't fire. Hell, horses I've bet back in the Preakness off good trips like Peace Rules looked gassed.

If RA weren't going I'd definitely be on Musket Man, and early in the Ky Derby talk I had disparaged him pretty bad but watching his trainer work him to get the max out of him he really grew on me... he moved from a total toss to a moderate use in the Derby for me.

never off the board, and tries every time. i like him.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Perhaps you are discounting (or missing?) Join in the Dance's mugging of MTB and Papa Clem at the start.

Yea, I'm discounting that. Papa Clem easily burst through that contact and moved up behind Regal Ransom and Join In the Dance. He didn't catch any negative effects and got exactly where he wanted to be.

MTB - some would say that had MTB not had the contact early from JITD, Borel may have had him closer - so if you believe that to be true, the contact definitely helped MTB. It certainly didn't appear to injure him, and if Borel's plan was to take back as deep as he did, it didn't hamper that plan in any real way.

Originally Posted by philcski

Maybe you are discounting Musket Man's (and to a lesser extent, POTN's) run on the worst part of the track?

There could be something to this depending on how different you think different parts of the track may have been playing. I happen to think a lot of the rail bias stuff has been much overblown.

There may have been a significant difference between the rail and outer paths, but a lot of the debate to champion that bias has not been logical. The more vocal suggestions of the bias include fallacies such as Desormeaux's middle move shooting up the rail on Hold Me Back was somehow evidence of an inside bias, or that Borel's Deep Closing Rail Run with Mine That Bird was somehow evidence of an inside bias.

I think with Musket Man or POTN if you want to credit them a little vs MTB it might make a little sense(although the purpose is probably futile because MTB was likely a 1-hit "perfect storm"), but comparing say Musket Man to Papa Clem isn't going to be that fruitful. If you think one should get a little more credit by all means...

Originally Posted by philcski

Baby boi's chart doesn't though. He had an extremely clean trip, apparently.

I have not looked at the chart yet, only the headon blimp and pan replays , babe

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Yea, I'm discounting that. Papa Clem easily burst through that contact and moved up behind Regal Ransom and Join In the Dance. He didn't catch any negative effects and got exactly where he wanted to be.

MTB - some would say that had MTB not had the contact early from JITD, Borel may have had him closer - so if you believe that to be true, the contact definitely helped MTB. It certainly didn't appear to injure him, and if Borel's plan was to take back as deep as he did, it didn't hamper that plan in any real way.



There could be something to this depending on how different you think different parts of the track may have been playing. I happen to think a lot of the rail bias stuff has been much overblown.

There may have been a significant difference between the rail and outer paths, but a lot of the debate to champion that bias has not been logical. The more vocal suggestions of the bias include fallacies such as Desormeaux's middle move shooting up the rail on Hold Me Back was somehow evidence of an inside bias, or that Borel's Deep Closing Rail Run with Mine That Bird was somehow evidence of an inside bias.

I think with Musket Man or POTN if you want to credit them a little vs MTB it might make a little sense(although the purpose is probably futile because MTB was likely a 1-hit "perfect storm"), but comparing say Musket Man to Papa Clem isn't going to be that fruitful. If you think one should get a little more credit by all means...



I have not looked at the chart yet, only the headon blimp and pan replays , babe

Papa Clem- disagree. He took a strong whack and had to rush up to get his normal position. It wasn't a killer- in fact Smarty Jones bullrushed through a similar occurance in the '04 Derby to gain his normal spot- but he ain't Smarty Jones and needed everything to go perfectly. if he doesn't get slammed, maybe he has an additional ounce of energy at the finish and gets up for 2nd.

MTB- agree. He was actually probably aided by the bump. His instructions were to be closer. But you have to at least acknowledge that he got hit if you want to discuss the nuances of the trips.

As for the rail discussion, I'm using the ancillary evidence from other races to back up my claim- the Hold Me Back argument holds no weight IMO.

Trip handicapping this race...
Vestiges of the mud wrestling bar
excursions still remain in the patient's
dreams.

-Sigmoid Froid

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Papa Clem- disagree. He took a strong whack and had to rush up to get his normal position. It wasn't a killer- in fact Smarty Jones bullrushed through a similar occurance in the '04 Derby to gain his normal spot- but he ain't Smarty Jones and needed everything to go perfectly. if he doesn't get slammed, maybe he has an additional ounce of energy at the finish and gets up for 2nd.

That is a possibility.