5/16: Pimlico (Preakness Day)

[Kasept]

Black-Eyed Susan Day left punters with black eyes as any attempt to make real money was quashed by a parade of short-priced winners. You know it's a short arm kind of day when you catch two P4's and LOSE $50 on them... No matter. The prequel should have left everyone in good shape for what has potential to be a much better chance to mix in long prices with the obvious Saturday. Hope everyone did well and enjoys what may be one of those special kinds of days Saturday...


HI HO, PIMLICO


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Malibu Joe 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Storms Past 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wild Repent 7-2 5th
Super Add: #Ijada's Run 6-1 2nd


2nd: 17th Allaire DuPont (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Skylighter 1-1 WON
Best Value: #6 All Smiles 6-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Hot Bullet 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Stonestreet Star 9-5 7th
Next Best: #2 Pocket Patch 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Y'er Man 20-1 5th


4th: 22nd Wm. Schaefer (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ea 3-1 2nd-DH
Best Value: #7 No Advantage 12-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Ready Set 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Real Merchant 4-1 2nd-DH


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Habitual 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Motown Shuffle 20-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Cold Orient 6-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Robey's Choice 15-1 7th


6th: 2nd Deputed Testimony (R), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Norjac 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Terrific Tom 15-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Sumacha'hot 2-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Thunder Charm 10-1 8th


7th: 58th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dynaforce 4-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Shytoe Lafeet 10-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Tejida 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 All is Vanity 9-2 2nd


8th: 34th Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. II), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Not for Silver 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Everyday Heroes 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Taqarub 5-2
Super Add: #7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-7-10
6: 3-5
7: 3-8
8: 1-2-3-6-7-9

3x2x2x6 = $72


9th: 44th Woodlawn, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, DD)

Best Value: #7 Code of Honour 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #8 Affirmatif 3-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Heros Image 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Dakota Dunes 12-1 5th


10th: 23rd Maryland Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ravalo 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Ah Day 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Torpedo Run 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Celtic Innis 10-1 3rd


11th: 108th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Frankel/Attfield entry 5-2 9th (#1 Proudinsky SCR'D)
Best Value: #2 Monba 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Strike a Deal 5-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Lauro 8-1 4th


12th: 134th Preakness (Gr. I), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Musket Man 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Mine That Bird 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Pioneerof the Nile 5-1 11th
High 5 Play: #7 Papa Clem 12-1 7th

$1 Trifecta (13-2-3) Paid $108.10
$1 Exacta (13-2) Paid $19.60


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-7-8
10: 5-6-7-8
11: 1-2-3-4-8-12
12: 13

3x4x6x1 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4,5,8/1,8/3,9/13) Paid $65.10


Good luck!
Steve

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Kasept

12th: 134th Preakness (Gr. I), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
Best Value: #3 Musket Man 8-1
Next Best: #2 Mine That Bird 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Pioneerof the Nile 5-1
High 5 Play: #7 Papa Clem 12-1


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, just curious why no Big Drama? I think he will be forced to go, you think he'll just blow himself out? I included him in my live DD, with RA though I know she'll be tough to beat. Best of luck Steve.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

Steve, just curious why no Big Drama? I think he will be forced to go, you think he'll just blow himself out? I included him in my live DD, with RA though I know she'll be tough to beat. Best of luck Steve.

Undoubtedly had real bottom coming into the season, and Fawkes says he's fit, but I have a tough time accepting 'fit to go 9.5f off one 7f prep'.

G/L!! Going to be a fun day...

[mclem0822]

Thanks for the feedback. You been on such a roll, let's keep it going!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th: 23rd Maryland Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ravalo 3-1
Best Value: #1 West Coast Flier 6-1
Next Best: #5 Ah Day 5-2
Super Add: #7 Celtic Innis 10-1

Tryin' to figure what you see in Ravalo at 3-1... seems like he's lost a step (6,3 this year) and the Commonwealth was a moderate pace and he still gave it up... certainly a horse that knows the wire though and either of his races at MNR last winter would be good enough. I'm going to use 2,3,5 in there most likely. I like your thoughts of beating the goofy 3/5 Affirmatif in the first leg, though. I don't really get that line, I could understand 8/5 but he's not much better than anybody else in here (a glorified N1X). It's fallen a long way from the year where future BC Mile winner Artie Schiller put on a scintillating performance.

[asudevil]

Colonel Rutledge...Buzz coming from everywhere. Goes off at 4-1 IMO.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Tryin' to figure what you see in Ravalo at 3-1... seems like he's lost a step (6,3 this year) and the Commonwealth was a moderate pace and he still gave it up... certainly a horse that knows the wire though and either of his races at MNR last winter would be good enough. I'm going to use 2,3,5 in there most likely. I like your thoughts of beating the goofy 3/5 Affirmatif in the first leg, though. I don't really get that line, I could understand 8/5 but he's not much better than anybody else in here (a glorified N1X). It's fallen a long way from the year where future BC Mile winner Artie Schiller put on a scintillating performance.

There's nothing in that sprint that Ravalo can't beat with any of his typical '08 performances. If he has lost a step, you wouldn't know it based on the :57.3 workout in March. That drill may have been responsible for the blah effort at KEE, and since when do you count on him beyond 6f anyway?

The horse I'd love to boost into this is Celtic Innis, who is one my absolute favorite geldings. The winningest son ($510k) of the great Yarrow Brae...

As for the Woodlawn, as I said on ATR last night, this is one of the more interesting betting affairs on the card. Don't know if my logic was faulty, but if Affirmatif was anything other than ordinary, why run him in a $50k listed stake? In that 2nd race at KEE he was downright embarassing, and it turns out that field he blasted at Gulfstream was perhaps the worst group of MSW turf runners of the meet. Only Final Count came back to win with a decent figure (87 at KEE 4/19). Oree won on the KEE main for Arnold with a scintillating 78 Beyer. The rest are, in the words of Serling, bums. Affirmatif can win I suppose, but there's three pace-interested parties in that race. Good luck to him...

[ddthetide]

any thought on Fresian Fire or General Quarters?

[herkhorse]

Anyone know if Striking Tomisue is running at Pimlico or Belmont?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Anyone know if Striking Tomisue is running at Pimlico or Belmont?

TD,

There's a few of those to worry about... Sea Chanter another. We'll know soon.

Originally Posted by ddthetide

any thought on Fresian Fire or General Quarters?

Honestly, no... There are a number of respected opinions saying to back the horses that DIDN'T fire in Derby like Fire and Quarters. Steve Crist said that on ATR and in CristBlog yesterday, and TG's Jerry Brown feels that way too.

But historically, the most successful Derby runners perform positively at Pimlico for the most part. Musket Man, Papa Clem and Pioneer ALL seem to be displaying plus signals going into the race today. Haskin thinks Pioneer has GAINED weight since Derby, usually a very good sign on the short turnaround... Musket Man was totally on edge in his Monmouth work... Mine That Bird is full of energy and is more animated than Woolley has ever seen him: a sign that a horse is at a fitness peak...

Certainly Friesan Fire was worse than could possibly be believed 2 weeks ago and can only run better today. He reportedly finished up the work this week with much more energy than the pre-race Churchill drill: Something Jones acknowledged on ATR this week... I think very little of General Quarters, and especially McCarthy, and freely admit I am letting my distaste colour my judgement on his prospects.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by Kasept

TD,

There's a few of those to worry about... Sea Chanter another. We'll know soon.


Honestly, no... There are a number of respected opinions saying to back the horses that DIDN'T fire in Derby like Fire and Quarters. Steve Crist said that on ATR and in CristBlog yesterday, and TG's Jerry Brown feels that way too.

But historically, the most successful Derby runners perform positively at Pimlico for the most part. Musket Man, Papa Clem and Pioneer ALL seem to be displaying plus signals going into the race today. Haskin thinks Pioneer has GAINED weight since Derby, usually a very good sign on the short turnaround... Musket Man was totally on edge in his Monmouth work... Mine That Bird is full of energy and is more animated than Woolley has ever seen him: a sign that a horse is at a fitness peak...

Certainly Friesan Fire was worse than could possibly be believed 2 weeks ago and can only run better today... I think very little of General Quarters, and especially McCarthy, and freely admit I am letting my distaste colour my judgement on his prospects.

Is there something your not telling us? I hav'nt heard anything "bad" about this guy.. Do tell....

I thought this was a "feel good " story.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There's nothing in that sprint that Ravalo can't beat with any of his typical '08 performances. If he has lost a step, you wouldn't know it based on the :57.3 workout in March. That drill may have been responsible for the blah effort at KEE, and since when do you count on him beyond 6f anyway?

The horse I'd love to boost into this is Celtic Innis, who is one my absolute favorite geldings. The winningest son ($510k) of the great Yarrow Brae...

As for the Woodlawn, as I said on ATR last night, this is one of the more interesting betting affairs on the card. Don't know if my logic was faulty, but if Affirmatif was anything other than ordinary, why run him in a $50k listed stake? In that 2nd race at KEE he was downright embarassing, and it turns out that field he blasted at Gulfstream was perhaps the worst group of MSW turf runners of the meet. Only Final Count came back to win with a decent figure (87 at KEE 4/19). Oree won on the KEE main for Arnold with a scintillating 78 Beyer. The rest are, in the words of Serling, bums. Affirmatif can win I suppose, but there's three pace-interested parties in that race. Good luck to him...

Didn't CELTIC INNIS win this heat a few years back? His pp's don't go past the '07 renewal but I seem to recall him winning at 10-1 or so. Or maybe it was 2nd in the Friendly Island year. He definitely has a chance.

FYI West Coast Flyer is cross entered tomorrow at Belmont, where he's 6/5 on the ML. Let's see where they end up. This is a pretty salty race for a $100k G3.

The good Jersey bred Forgetaboutit Sal is also by the studly Yarrow Brae.

[tbonds]

Question for all!!
Does anyone have a feel on Terrain? In his last he, look like he had more runleft in him. Can he make it in some exotics?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by tbonds

Question for all!!
Does anyone have a feel on Terrain? In his last he, look like he had more runleft in him. Can he make it in some exotics?

He'll run 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th. 0% chance to win and 0% chance to finish worse than 8th.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Didn't CELTIC INNIS win this heat a few years back? His pp's don't go past the '07 renewal but I seem to recall him winning at 10-1 or so. Or maybe it was 2nd in the Friendly Island year. He definitely has a chance.

FYI West Coast Flyer is cross entered tomorrow at Belmont, where he's 6/5 on the ML. Let's see where they end up. This is a pretty salty race for a $100k G3.

Really, salty? There are basically two decent six-year-olds who are far from locks to fire, then five allowance horses.

[Kasept]

PIMLICO CHANGES


Track: Fast
Turf: On the Turf
Forecast: Overcast
______________________________________
RACE 1 @ 10:15

Scratch #1 Smokin Heart
#7 Cash N Wink

_______________________________________
RACE 2 @ 10:44

Scratch #5 Striking Tomisue
_______________________________________
RACE 3 @ 11:13

Scratch #4 Winter Walk
_______________________________________
RACE 4 @ 11:48

No Changes
_______________________________________
RACE 5 @ 12:28

Scratch #5 Foxs Uptown Boy
#11 Chancellery
#13 Ovechkin

_______________________________________
RACE 6 @ 1:07

Scratch #2 Take Down Two
_______________________________________
RACE 7 @ 1:55

Scratch #5 Quiet Meadow
_______________________________________
RACE 8 @ 2:35

No Changes
_______________________________________
RACE 9 @ 3:44

Scratch #4 Beacon Hill Road
_______________________________________
RACE 10 @ 4:30

Scratch #1 West Coast Flier
_______________________________________
RACE 11 @ 5:13

Scratch #9 Brickell
_______________________________________
RACE 12 @ 6:15

No Changes
_______________________________________
RACE 13 @ 7:15

Scratch #4 Louiegoboldly

I'll be out of pocket today so I'm just putting $50 wp on Papa Clem. I'm a sucker for perfect trip horses that don't show jack and s.hit down the stretch.

Good luck to all.

[rpncaine]

Will they not run the 11th race on the Turf since it's a G2?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by rpncaine

Will they not run the 11th race on the Turf since it's a G2?

???

They aren't off the turf. Fast and Firm...

[Clip-Clop]

I am a true believer in the Derby Fav. Thinking Friesan Fire can and will come up strong. That said I also think Big Drama will hang around for a very long time. I will be covering a few bets with RA on top but my top four will be.

Friesan Fire
Musket Man
Big Drama
Pioneer of the Nile

I am from the group that think MM ran a better and more deserving race than POTN. I am also a MTH park homebred and a big Derek Ryan fan.

Good luck everyone! Enjoy the races and as always thank you Steve for providing for all of us a way to voice our (often wrong/always strong) opinions.