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#1
05-20-2009, 10:18 PM
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5/21: Belmont ($37k C/O)
Caught the late P4 at Belmont Wednesday where once again the quad demonstrated its' penchant for rewarding value-seekers. Three obvious favorites marched home in the last third of the card after one well-priced winner (10-1 Gamblin Fever) started the sequence. As it happened, I thought Paulino Ortiz' Gamblin Fever (ML 12-1) was a terrific play, and I made him the top choice in the race as a 'Best Value'. That one 'clever' opinion was tripped the $455.50 return which was about 33% above the parlay.
But if I had been truly clever, this could have been a spot for a very big payday, and I missed it. Given my affection for an overlay like Gamblin Fever, it would certainly have been a good spot to 'press' in the P4 play by using him with a narrow group of likely winners the rest of the way, or at least in the 6th-8th Pick 3... Because make no mistake, Pinckney Hill and Flying Dixie in the 7th and 8th were two rock solid favorite types and overwhelming 'likely' winners. The P3 starting in the 6th and ending with them paid a tremendous $190.75, and while I had nice W-PL money on $22 Gamblin Fever, a $20 straight P3 with him and the next two would have obviously been worth $3,800. My mentality is generally to 'live' with a live multi-race ticket while pressing within the race via W-PL bets and/or exotics, but I recognized immediately when Pinckney Hill won easily, that I had missed a big chance for a memorable payday. Anyway, just some random post-raceday thoughts... As you may have heard in the call today from "Lou from NY", having a good view of the races means you need to get paid. Hope you did well! P6 carryover to attack Thursday with another set of fun races from P.J. Campo. Do need to take a moment to convey sadness over the horrible incident before the 5th race Wednesday when Mr. Jerkens' City On Line dropped Jose Lezcano and ran into the Belmont paddock to collide with the Secretariat statue. The City Zip 4yo owned by Our Stromboli Farm had to be destroyed. BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD) NOTE: #13 Riptide (7-2) very dangerous if somehow drawing in.. Most Likely: #4 Flying Dismount 2-1 WON Best Value: #8 Youbethecan 6-1 7th Next Best: #5 Yazamaan 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #1 Indymine 12-1 3rd 5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) SCR: #4 & #6 Most Likely: #2 Crema d'Oro 5-2 WON Best Value: #3 Super Child 4-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Rocker Mom 6-1 6th 6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Reeley Misbehaving 8-5 WON Best Value: #1 Caterina's Terms 15-1 4th Next Best: #4 Love for a Price 4-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 Picnic Rock 5-1 8th 7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #11 Quisom 15-1 8th Most Likely: #4 Dame Ellen 6-1 WON Next Best: #1 (POE) Candlemaker 3-1 10th Super Add: #5 America's Dreaming 10-1 4th 8th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 9f (DD) Albertrani, who's been sending them out particularly ready for months, gave Unbridled's Heart an appropriate 11 weeks after the gut-wrencher comeback beat he took at the hands of his own barnmate (!) Ea. Ea has subsequently gone on to place in the $500k Charles Town Classic and Gr. III Schaefer. Today's $1,000,000 favorite has everything going his way from a pace standpoint, and while he pretty well has to be singled for budgetary reasons in tough P4/P6 skiens, he 'feels' vulnerable, and Stevil has been announced as a new gelding. Recall as well that the 1 for 14 Zito runner posted that lone tally on his sole try this oval... Most Likely: #6 Unbridled's Heart 3-5 3rd Best Value: #1 Stevil 4-1 4th Next Best: #5 American Dance 5-1 WON 9th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super) Most Likely: #6 Artistic Talent 5-2 DH-2nd Best Value: #7 Luck 6-1 8th Next Best: #9 Fourth Chapter 8-1 6th Super Add: #5 Toga Tiger 20-1 7th <$150 P6 Play: 4: 4-5-8 5: 2-3 6: 2 7: 1-4-11 8: 6 9: 5-6-7-9 3x2x1x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-2-4-5 7: 1-4-5 8: 6 9: 2-3-5-6-7-9 4x3x1x6 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-21-2009 at 05:45 PM. 
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#3
05-21-2009, 10:36 AM
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The Clement is an interesting filly and very well can be used. She's a sister to the dam of Imperial Council (Jaramar Rain, who was Picnic Rock's dam's best runner to date). And from a trainer angle point of view, Clement has won twice debuting at 9f on lawn in the last 5 years, from 12 tries, and most interestingly, they were with 12-1 and 13-1 runners that ran low 80's Beyers.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
05-21-2009, 11:22 AM
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That kind of trainer-rider thing doesn't attract my attention. Maragh is a very good jock who has established himself near the top of the colony, and any call he gets from a leading barn will likely be a capable horse.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-21-2009, 11:29 AM
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and some of his rats are better rats 
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#7
05-21-2009, 10:57 AM
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#8
05-21-2009, 11:15 AM
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#9
05-21-2009, 11:26 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
05-21-2009, 11:28 AM
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BELMONT SCR'S
1 1A Manitoba Miss Early 2 Cagey Girl Early 3 Point Me to It Early 2 3 Electra's Ego Early NO SHOW or TRIFECTA 5 Shes Spoken Four Early 3 7 Franklin Delano Early 4 1A Bright Illusion Early 11 Wonderous Day Early 12 Ecru Egret Early 13 Riptide (ARG) Early 14 Spicy Vow Early 15 Silver Express Early 5 4 Lofty Early NO SUPERFECTA 6 Officer Flirt Early 6 1A Refinery Fire Early 8 Lady Valiant Early 12 Devilishameye Early 13 Playful Majesty Early 14 Driven by Royalty Early 7 1A Esperanza d'Oro Early 7 Seminole Lass Early 12 Miss Dartmouth Early 8 3 Warm Shower Early 9 1A Sumwhrovrtherainbw Early 2B Eightyfive S Early 10 Delta Weekend Early 11 Skip Away Belle Early 12 Quiet Mover Early
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#11
05-21-2009, 02:19 PM
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Grace's Valentine is out of Roberto's Plenty of Grace, the Galbraith-bred, Darby Dan-campaigned, John Veitch-trained 5X Graded Stakes winner. She has been more productive producing producers than runners so far. She got Bonnie Byerly (dam of Diabolical) and Propriety (dam of Grace Anatomy). She herself is out of Wings of Grace, a daughter of Key to the Mint produced from a mating with Far Beyond, a daughter of.. Nijinsky! In addition to Plenty of Grace, Wings of Grace produced.. Soaring Softly. Obviously, no matter how slow she looks so far, I doubt we'll see Grace's Valentine in a claimer any time soon...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
05-21-2009, 11:46 AM
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Note that STEVIL has been announced as a new gelding!
May want to entertain a little 7th-8th DD cover play if you're singled to Unbridled's Heart... STEVIL was the only horse in the area code anyway, and if Unbridled's Heart should falter, he's the piece-picker-upper. And we already know Stevil's lone victory is over this surface. Maybe doubles of various amounts? 1-4-5-6-8-11 with 1... Just thinkin' out loud..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
05-21-2009, 11:49 AM
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NT
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#14
05-21-2009, 11:55 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#16
05-21-2009, 12:11 PM
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#17
05-21-2009, 12:19 PM
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 I laughed, hard
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#18
05-21-2009, 01:41 PM
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Belmont Lake PK4
Race 6
2- Reely Misbehaving 8-5 could be vulnerable as a deep closer in a fairly paceless race 4- Love For a Price 4-1 Can't igore 5/6 turf ITM 5 - Picnic Rock 5-1 - Can 't toss Clement firster 6 - Me Mine Maria 10-1 - Only including because I already committed to going deep in this race. Trainer seems to excel in spots like this. 3 - Grace's Valentine 15-1 Bred to love the lawn; if she's matured at all over the past 6 months, she could be a player. Expect her to be close to the lead early. Albertrani's barn continues to do well. Race 7 4 Dame Ellen 6-1 expect much shorter price with scratch of Seminole Lass 1 Candle Maker 3-1 Ditto... These 2 should both get ideal setups with an expected honest pace up front. Race 8 6 -Unbridled Heart 3-5 Captain Obvious 1 - Stevil 4-1 Unlikely to beat the favorite, but a few things to like, including first-time gelding which Steve noted above. Race 9 6 - Artistic Talent 5-2 Looks like possible lone speed. 3 - Queen of the Scene 9-2 Why not? If top choice falters, she's as likely as anyone else. 5x2x2x2 = $40 for $1 Good luck everyone.
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#19
05-21-2009, 01:54 PM
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